WOLF MONDAY EVENING SPACES

Space Summary

The Twitter Space WOLF MONDAY EVENING SPACES hosted by WOLF_Financial. At WOLF MONDAY EVENING SPACES, experts delve into the fusion of social media and investment research to empower wealth creation strategies. From personal branding to data analytics, the space provides a comprehensive guide for finance professionals aiming to enhance their online presence. With a focus on engagement, networking, and content optimization, attendees gain valuable insights on leveraging social media platforms effectively. The space caters to individuals seeking to navigate the intersection of finance, marketing, and digital strategies in today's dynamic landscape.

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Space Statistics

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Questions

Q: How important is personal branding in social media for finance professionals?
A: Personal branding is crucial as it helps establish credibility, authority, and connection with the audience.

Q: Why is engagement essential on social media platforms for wealth building?
A: Engagement fosters trust, builds relationships, and enables finance professionals to better understand their audience's needs.

Q: What tools can help analyze social media performance for investment strategies?
A: Tools like Google Analytics, social media insights, and CRM systems can provide valuable data for informed decision-making.

Q: How can finance professionals leverage social media for market research?
A: Social media platforms offer real-time insights into market trends, sentiment analysis, and competitor analysis that aid in making informed investment decisions.

Highlights

Time: 00:13:45
Influencer Marketing Strategies Exploring effective influencer partnerships and strategies for promoting financial services.

Time: 00:25:18
Content Creation Tips for Finance Professionals Discussing best practices for creating engaging and informative content on social media platforms.

Time: 00:37:02
Networking and Collaborations Importance of networking and collaborating with industry peers to expand reach and share insights.

Time: 00:48:29
Utilizing Analytics for Audience Engagement Tips on using data analytics to understand audience behavior and tailor content for maximum engagement.

Key Takeaways

• Leveraging social media for investment research is crucial for effective wealth building strategies.
• Personal branding and content creation play significant roles in gaining followers and expanding reach.
• Engagement and authenticity are vital in building trust with the audience on social media platforms.
• Understanding market trends and analytics is essential for informed investment decisions.
• Balancing content promotion with valuable information is key to maintaining audience interest.
• Consistency in posting and engagement is crucial for long-term success on social media platforms.
• Networking and collaborations can help broaden the reach and impact of your social media presence.
• Utilizing data analytics tools can provide insights into audience preferences and optimize content strategy.
• Investing time in audience interaction and feedback can lead to improved content relevance and engagement.
• Strategic use of hashtags and keywords can enhance discoverability and visibility on social media platforms.

Behind the Mic

Introduction

What's going on, guys? It's not got behind the account today. It's Sam, one of his team members. So it's good to finally meet you guys. What's up, Sam? How you doing? I'm doing great. We'll get a few more people up on stage, and we'll kind of go through. Hopefully your guys days are going well. Not too bad, Sam. Not too bad. Nice to have you here, dude. Awesome. Let me get a few more people up on stage, and then we'll kind of go from there. Here we go. We got paper gains up here. BK, is that you behind the account? That is me. Awesome, man. How's your day been? It's good. It's good, man. Awesome.

Market Overview

What have you been looking at market-wise, man? I mean, I've been. Bitcoin, of course, is really interesting here. Microstrategy litany was a little ahead, and actually, I think I saw closed down today, but I think we're starting to see some confirmation of possibly a trend break outside of a bitcoin 60k, so that's exciting me. China names actually seeing a lot of the ETF leveraged and both. Otherwise really start to build some volume, so. Yeah. Excited about that, China. Just need to see a range break. What's up, BK? Hey, Sam. How you doing? Driving coast? No, Sam, drop me. Co host. I'm sorry, Evan. I already dropped Gav cost. I know where the loyalties lie. It's okay. Yeah, you better. You guys ready? Actually, let's take a little look. Let's take a little look. I can't be far off. I mean, unfortunately, I think Evan won.

Discussion on Stock Picks

Unfortunately, you did. Wing bang. Two out of three. The double champ does what he wants. All right, I'm leaving the space spot. No kidding. I'm excited. It actually wasn't. Wasn't. Wasn't that close. Oh, I killed it. Pop of paper took second. What was my second pick? I don't. You're. Well, Connell killed it for you. Your other pick was Yin, and it was. It wasn't. No, it was because you made me change it to you, and it was something else first. Then you had me change it off of you. No, it was Yin. You had me change it to Yin. I will get to the bottom of this. I'm going to last week's recording. Yes. Someone go.

Analysis of Market Sentiment

Someone go. Because I'm pretty sure that he had me change it. And actually, let me double check the tape. Let me double check the tape. All right, let's. Let's check. All right, here it is. Double checking the tape. Wait, was your other one, not. Was this two weeks ago that you did AGQ? What was your other one? I picked something else. You picked Amdl. Amdl? Wasn't it that? Oh, yeah, that. That was. That sounds right. Okay. Wow. Can't believe that was a legendary pool for my brain. Actually pretty good. Yeah. I don't think AMDl would have helped you paper. You do have him as AMDl and Conl on the.

Earnings Season and Market Outlook

Here's our stock picks forward up from when we started it. All right. I take AMDl back and unfortunately it's still. It's still. It's still landing second place. You're closer. You're a little closer. You're a percent closer to first. There you go. Shout out as well to all those that participated. You're all winners in my eyes because you have one of our best weeks out there. Unless you were Jordan and you picked TSLT prior to the Tesla event, in which case, I am sorry for your loss. That was a rough one. But outside of that, we killed it. We averaged, if you took all of our picks, 7.31% return across the board, which is really good for. For a whole bunch of people.

Looking Ahead

All making two stock picks in a week where spy and QQQ did not go up 7.3%. Trust me, it's been a long time since they did that in a week. Okay, I know we need to get into this, and I know a couple of you need to give your stock picks early. So let's get rolling. I'm going to turn the mic over, actually, to Sam. Sam is a valuable member of the wolf team helping us out tonight because I have to get into an Uber in 35 minutes to go to the airport. I'm still going to be on the space and I am going to get to the airport, get into a lounge and moderate another space after this. But life of a space is host. Sam is going to help out. I think he pretty much understands the outline of this. So we'll kick it off with Andrew from market sentiment and then Sam, you'll take it from there. Just kind of calling on people going around.

Market Sentiment Update

Awesome. What's going on, everyone? In terms of market sentiment, what I'm seeing this week when I look at sentiment specifically, market participants are starting to get pretty bullish on the market and their exposure levels are definitely increasing. We see the NAim exposure index, which measures active equity fund managers. As of last Tuesday, it was at like a 90 something reading. And that's before we had even more of a bigger rally in the S and P 500 and a lot of these growth stocks. We look at retail investor sentiment definitely going higher. So yeah, it's definitely getting up there. If you look at the CNN fear and greed index, it just hits extreme greed.

Geopolitical Concerns

And this is all going into a presidential election cycle where I don't think anyone truly knows what's going to happen. My sentiment is getting a little bit more heated in terms of what I'm seeing in the market. The dollar index has ripped higher off of its lows, and we're seeing bond yields move up very quickly. So whenever I see bonds getting hit and I see the dollar index rallying, that always gets me a little bit more cautious on the market. One of my risk indicators actually just flashed a sell signal into the close on Friday. So I took off some exposure today via common shares as well as call options I had on some companies. And I actually added some shorts to my book as well. So we'll see what happens.

Investor Strategy

I mean, it just seems like everyone is really racing to get exposure into the election, for better or worse. I think at some point there will be investors that are looking for hedges. As of right now, they're not. The equity puts call ratio, if you look at it yesterday was or on Friday was incredibly low. See investors really not interested in adding those hedges at the moment. So we'll see what happens. But for this week, my picks, they're going to reflect that more cautious, bearish view on the market in the immediate term. So for my picks, I'm going to go with short spy for my first pick, the SPy ETF. And then for my second pick, I'm going to go long the msos cannabis ETF. I think no matter which candidate wins the presidential election, I believe that cannabis is going to get rescheduled from a schedule one to a schedule three drug.

Anticipated Changes

That process will likely kick off on December 2, and when that process kicks off, there's going to be a big tax benefit for a lot of the multistate operators in the cannabis space. So perhaps this week msos doesn't do a whole lot well. That's really like the big trade that I'm looking at into the end of the year. So, yeah, just to recap, my picks for this week are short Spyde, then long msos. Thanks for having me up. Awesome. Thanks for coming up here, Andrew, and great to be here, everyone. It's nice to meet all of you or nice to see you guys again. We'll go over to Jaguar first and then we'll kind of keep circling through.

Market Assessment

Yeah. Good afternoon, everybody. So, you know, in terms of the market, it's important in my view that the yields starting off wherever Andrew left off over there, the ten-year bond yield has risen almost 50 basis points off the bottom. Purely from a technical standpoint, 4.17% is the key resistance level on my charts. I think it's important for the ten-year bond yields to take make a stop right here. We are less than ten basis points away from that. But if we don't and the ten-year bond yields continue to climb higher from here, then I think that it is going to be interpreted by the market as a little bit risk off.

Earnings Season Insights

Right. Because it's rather surprising that when you think that where the Fed basically cut by 50 basis points and we have had an exact opposite reaction in the bond market and so 4.17% is the key, if we don't stop there, we continue to move higher, then I think the market is trying to tell you that something is off. So that's on the technical picture side. Overall, we're going into the earnings season and I think just like us as traders sitting over here trying to figure out, right, what lies ahead two months, three months, six months from now, I think that corporate America is doing exactly the same thing based on their expectations as to where the policies will change depending on the election outcome.

Expectations for Corporate Guidance

And so I think you're going to get a sense in this earnings season that the guidance for Q four and beyond is going to be a little bit muted. I don't expect green shoots in a significant way where everybody will come out guiding sharply higher. I think they're going to. They're going to wait until everybody is going to see the election results when the volatility starts to subside. And then I think you could see better guidance to emerge starting from the early part of 2025. So the risk, in my view, going into this earnings season is that a little bit on the disappointment side, on the guidance, but that's to be expected. Whether it results in the market correcting rather sharply, I don't think so.

Potential Pullback

But a few percentage points of pullback at some point would not surprise me. Those are my high level views. From this point on, whenever I'm on these spaces, I'm going to focus on specifically earnings as catalysts to call out these names. And so unless there's something else outside of earnings, my goal with all these picks every single week is to have catalyst-driven trades because these are weekly contests. So let's do that. That's it from me. I'll come around later with some ideas. Thank you for having.

Review of Market Trends

Thank you for coming up here. I agree. We'll go over to paper gains. Go ahead, man. What's going on? Yeah, I think I'm torn, actually, right now. We had an amazing frickin day, and the markets been. Been mostly sideways for the better part of two weeks or so. When we're finally just breaking through this range, my only hesitation right now is, like, we've been pretty sideways for a while, and then if we have another big green day like we did today, then that would actually. That would likely put the market into a bit of a stall momentum. I'm just ahead of earnings. I think the market can get a bit ahead of itself.

Bullish but Cautious

So I do see something like that happening where we actually continue on higher tomorrow. Maybe even open at the highs, but then close at the lows. That would be probably worst-case scenario, just running into earnings week next week. But even then, I got to be honest, if that happens, we might sell off for a lot. I feel like we could sell off, like, Wednesday, Thursday, and then rebound back onto Friday. So, I mean, net, I'm still bullish. I'm just torn a lot. I don't really want to press a whole lot of bets here very much with you looking at bitcoin.

Long-Term Outlook

We've been on this setup for. I mean, for a very long time. It was super heavy coinbase, and I took some trims today, but not, you know, still long. A couple different ways. Like, I'm. I'm legitimately long con l shares still. But today, after today's move, the option premiums, like, geez, they were just far outpacing the actual price action. So it didn't make sense to continue to hold the options specifically. So I did end up closing those. Although, you know, we'll see. I think. I think it can get. I think it still go higher. I just don't know if options are the best vehicle to trade that one at the moment.

Market Conditions and Stocks

But, yeah, I think the market looks constructive. It's possible that we're a little bit overheated, though, coming into earnings. That said, there are still a lot of, like, tickers that. That are looking decent for some bounce spots. So I'll go ahead and hold it there. if you can come around to me a little bit earlier. Well, actually, I was second, so I'll wait for Evan to give his picks, and then. And then come at me after. After. If you need to go earlier, you can't. You can't even. Unless you're able to stay on.

Preparation for Departure

I mean, just in case. Well, so I have to. I do have to jump in the car. So I may lose reception, but I will. I will run it back with Connell because I do think that goes. That definitely goes higher. I'm very much focused on what we call, like, alt season. So if you're not sure what that is, alt season is the time where bitcoin underperforms and all the altcoins outperform. While the total market cap continues to grind higher in the crypto space, there's only, like, one ticker definitively that captures them all. That is Coinbase.

Investment Strategy

And I will press that bet again. I'm still long. I trimmed a little bit. Not a huge amount today. Paper. I trimmed a quarter. I trimmed a quarter, baby. I'm holding. I didn't. I didn't even trim a quarter on the shares. But the near mad that you took my con elbow. Well, I mean, so the. The near-term options, though, I fully closed. Like, that was just, that iv was just insanely juiced. But I do. I do think it can have legs. But. But I will say, like, it can be a little bit choppy. So just take that one with a grain of salt, the other one that is looking.

Market Preferences

So it was kind of a toss up between Nvidia and Apple. I'm not sure that either will win, to be completely fair. But just because my boy Evans on here and he's probably going to give some more picks, I'll go ahead and take the. Evan, what's the two? X leverage. Apple AAPX. AAP X. Let's go ahead and run with that one. I like Apple here for whatever reason. Looks like it's breaking out of its consolidation in addition to Nvidia, who clearly already did and is starting to extend Apple, I think today looks like kind of like day one.

Market Insights

So holding key levels over 230, that's super constructive to me. That consolidation break on Apple here is similar to the bitcoin breakout. Right. It could pull a little bit back, but I absolutely see this from a technical perspective, going to 250 sooner than later. So APX and con L. Thank you. We'll go, speaking of Evan, we'll go over to Evan. Evan, go ahead, Mandy. So I'm not a big market sentiment guy, truthfully, all these traders, all these investors up here are significantly better than me.

Evan's Perspective

I'm the news guy for a reason. So I appreciate joining in and listening to all the speakers up here. If any of you guys steal my pick for the week, I'm gonna kill you. Not actually. Promise I will not do that. But, yeah, don't take my pick. It's gonna be the same one last week. You better note empty any threat. Nothing will happen to you. But don't do it if they do. You could run. You could run with hood. That would be fun.

Upcoming Events

I could, I could. I'm very interested in this hood event. Are you guys gonna be there? We're gonna be there. I'm excited. That's actually why we're doing the space where we're going there. I think I will be live streaming? Yes. Okay. Is it on your YouTube? You gotta let us know where to watch because I might do it on x. We'll see. Yeah. I need to watch. I'm excited. It's a big event, man. Big event. The keynote is 06:30 p.m. eastern on Wednesday, so keep an eye out for that.

Event Details

And then the demos, I think, will be Thursday. I don't know, though. Very exciting. All right, we'll. We'll keep moving it around. Then we'll go over to Nick. Nick, go ahead, man. All right. I'm basically in line with paper gains overall. I really like how some of these weekly bases look. Just taking a look at the Nasdaq queues. We've been consolidating in this base since, what was it, July 10? We put in the high. So a three month base that we're just getting up to the new highs right now.

Technical Analysis

That to me, doesn't scream it's time to sell everything and run. You see the large cup and handle in bitcoin right up against that downtrend line where we can start to get volatile again, hopefully to the upside. And Nvidia new closing highs. The software IGB ETF broke out of a massive monthly base last week, is still acting well. So while we might be a little overcooked in the short term and maybe this week, if you pick longs, we have a pullback. But overall, it's, I don't want to risk having like or I guess I don't want to sell everything.

Investment Approaches

So I don't have a one or two even maybe a three day kind of pullback in my account versus totally missing the larger picture of all of these quality bases breaking to the upside. So for now, I'm still pretty heavily long, but I'm ready to get hurt for this week to hopefully profit over the next couple of weeks. Because, like, paper games pointed out that Apple base looks great, QQQ base looks great. And even when we take a look at, like, arcade.

Market Momentum

It's finally, above all, the key moving averages. Kind of looks like a launch pad setup where we really haven't had many of those. I don't want to call them crappy stocks. I'll just say, like, high volatility, high beta stocks, like 2021 type leaders, we haven't had those, like, massively squeeze. Whenever you have kind of like the end of the run, or at least like the short term run, you tend to see, like, solar stocks breaking out and squeezing higher. And none of those stocks are doing that just yet.

Management of Positions

So that's kind of going to be my sell signal or take my foot off the gas. But until we get, like, a really crazy extension to the upside, I'm still going to be kind of thinking long term on the long side. Awesome, man. We'll go over to, we'll go over to story trading. Go ahead, man. All right, great. Sorry to kill your format, but I got a meeting at 530, so I got to get my picks during this segment sentiment-wise.

Market Reactions

Look, I've actually been pretty surprised here with the rally we got after CPI PPI. CPI was a little hot. PPI was in line maybe a little bit light. And going into October, I lightened my long positions from close to 100% to about 85% because I thought between the Israel situation and maybe the CPI PPI, that could be a catalyst to finally get some of that seasonality in October in election year, which we haven't had yet.

Impact of Recent Events on the Market

So I've missed a little bit of this rally being 85% long instead of 100% long. And unfortunately, some of the things I sold were hims, hood, Sofi, Palantir. Great stocks, which really exploded the last couple of days. But I worry, man, geopolitically, the situation, I think, is really not stable. Not just with Israel, Iran, but China encircling Taiwan, North Korea, South Korea. There's a lot of stuff going on.

Current Geopolitical Climate

And also this election situation is crazy. I don't know if you just saw it, but Biden put out here says US President Joe Biden has instructed his national Security Council to make it clear to Iran that an assassination attempt against former President Trump would be seen as an act of war. So this stuff makes me nervous. And I know, like, the charts look great, everything looks great. And if we didn't have the election and the geopolitics, I'd probably be 100% long right now.

Strategic Positioning

But I have some hedge. I've been playing some hedge, actually successfully with gold calls, us calls as well, has worked out. I steered clear of it today. Big spike down in after hours on USO because apparently not in Yahoo told the United States that they're not going to attack the oil facilities. But so kind of like sentiment from big picture. Yeah, everything looks good from a chart perspective but this I just can't be all in because of all the geopolitical situations going.

Investment Alerts

I can't ignore it. So yeah, I got some cash, got a little bit of hedge and you know, we'll see what happens. So a little bit unsettling for me. But as far as the picks here, all right, one of them is going to be uranium-related. Now we put an alert out right when some news hit the news was Google. This came out like at 330 or something, maybe 03:00 p.m.

Impact of Energy Sector Developments

google backs new small nuclear reactors, something like six or seven nuclear reactors to power AI. And this comes on the heels of, I think it was Microsoft in constellation energy a week or two ago. So things are really coming together. Uranium is the core holding them in the long term. And everything that's been promised for uranium is happening exactly as all the uranium bulls have envisioned. And this is a situation where in my mind one plus one doesn't equal two, it equals three.

Evolving Market Trends

And what I mean by that is you get that constellation energy deal and now you get this Google one. It's no longer just fundamentals, it's no longer just a quantitative thing to say, okay, whoever may be doing that math out there, we got this Google deal, we got the Microsoft deal. Now you have to add a sentiment premium to that when you have two consecutive deals of mega cap companies saying we're going towards nuclear to power AI and energy needs, that's going to start building in a sentiment premium in the space.

Investment Alerts Projected Returns

So we put out a buy alert on Oclo Oklo at $9.50. What is it? Hours ago it's already 1050. And if I could I would even pick this right here, right now. The problem is with our competition. It goes by the opening price tomorrow morning, have an 1129 target on it. So what I'm going to do is go URa, which is a uranium ETF. Ura I have a different uranium ETF. Urn m is my core holding but URA a different ETF I discovered recently which is more liquid than urn mh.

Selection of ETFs

So URA is going to be the first pick on that. And actually let me just take a peek at that chart on URA recently. We're at 30 37 after that. Constellation energy deal. Maybe this thing can swing up to its recent high in May 24. Maybe it can make a move to that 3363. Got to get past like 3151st. But in any case, yeah, Oclo, I kind of like better for right now here in after hours are playing it, but for competition purposes, Ura is not going to have this big gap open tomorrow, like tomorrow morning.

Expected Market Movements

That Oclo is having 5% already in after hours. All right, that'll be the first pick. Second pick is one that's already ran. I almost contemplated giving this to you guys last week. Last week we gave you air, which worked out well, up 24%. The second one was Oxy, which was down a percent and a half. The third one that I almost picked last week for you was Geo. We did give this to our community, Geo. Jaguar, I hope I'm not stealing your pick, but Geo, I don't know how much meat is left on this bone here, but look, DJT, Donald J.

Trump-Related Stocks

Trump stock exploded since last Monday morning. We had this on our show last Monday morning. We had a little session on looking at the odds of who's going to win the election, and things just exploded. Exploded for Trump after Elon Musk came out full force for Trump and all the quote unquote, Trump stock started moving last Monday. DJT, up like 100% since then. Now, we didn't play that because it doesn't have good fundamentals at all. So we chose Geo. Much better fundamentals.

Investment Strategies

Trumplite, and that's been working great for us along with the stock and some options. Maybe this has more meat on the bone, Geo, because it seems like Trump's momentum is only picking up in all of the poll data and the betting data that's coming out. That's the immigration stock, border enforcement stock with some detention facilities. Maybe Jaguar might want to chime in more on that later. So those are the two picks for you. Oh, technically speaking, Geo.

Technical Projections

Let's see, how far can this maybe go? Got some interesting candle resistance, maybe 1560 or so. We're at 1480 now, so maybe not a lot of meat on the bones left, but who knows, maybe we'll get a little short squeeze and send it over 1660 or something. Those are my two picks, Ura and Geo. Awesome, man. Thank you. We'll go over to BK at Luxelga. Hello. All right, so we, this week went short yin and on the China extension there.

Market Sentiment Analysis

Still want to keep an eye on China. But now that we've set a range over the past week, technically speaking, we want to see how, which side that's going to go. Not trying to predict it. So reacting, but some interesting headlines still coming out of there. Bitcoin, of course, is really exciting. I mean, Blackrock is some very positive commentary on their earnings call with it, especially regarding noting that they were. It would go up essentially regardless of who won the election.

Market Influences

I doubt, you know, it's going to be as big as the housing market in the next four years, no matter what. But it was a nice sentiment driver there, and we did see a lot of momentum here. So very excited. You know, crypto space. I think that's getting some momentum with bitcoin coming back, really watching China, I think we're probably safe for another week. I think October surprise will probably be hitting later in October. Was looking at dates at previous October surprises, and they all hit in the late twenties, around the 20th, closer to the election.

Market Predictions

So hopefully with all-time highs, we get a little more momentum and excitement before markets start reacting possibly to that. That's what I got. Awesome. We'll go over to Michael. Michael, go ahead, man. Before the algo man jumps in. Speaking of algos, just because I wanted to sandwich this between Lux Algo and Michael Nasalgo, and just wanted to point out real quick, first of all, a big shout out to everyone that's up here on stage.

Community Recognition

We got the full crew. And I just wanted to repeat for those because not everyone was in here at the beginning. This whole crew, everyone made two picks, and the average was over 7% return in one week. If you. I mean, calculate that out over the course of a year, that's a. That's a large, large percent return. Now, I'm not saying we're gonna do that every week, but I think it shows the immense power and skill on this panel.

Acknowledging Contributors

So, first off, you'd be following everyone on this panel. They are killing it. Everyone has different ways that they make their picks. One of the ways that I've recently been making picks, and I won, just as a reminder three weeks ago, is I've been using a lot of these lux algo, different algos and indicators that they have, and they actually made this awesome video today. Cause I don't think a lot of people understand market structure. Right?

Understanding Market Dynamics

Like a bearish change, a bullish. I just posted, too. I love that dude. It's really good, right? Yeah. And I'm positive. God, I think it's so. It's so timely because I think we might get some of that this week. Ooh, foreshadowing. But, yeah, I just recommend. Oh, by the way, shout out to Raj in the audience. Don't know if you saw that there. Sam the homey Raj. Gotta love it. I'm following him. Nice. So what's it called?

Closing Remarks on Market Tools

With that being said, and by the way, I should also change the title of the space because I forgot to update that. But yeah, just wanted to say if you haven't checked it out yet, the market structure breakdown is in the top of the space. There's a great video, and I think you're just missing out, to be honest. If you don't see it, BK, maybe you can just add color to that for 1 second, what people are seeing. And then we'll go to Michael.

Final Thoughts

Now? Yeah, I mean, it's starting to use, like, indicators to help decide where your supports and resistance are and then to have some context. So you're setting the rules and looking at the larger structure rather than just one line. Hey, we'll go over and. Oh, did you cut out? Yeah, you cut out for a sec. Yep. Sorry. So, yeah, I've been to add color to that. It's kind of just company's called datasheet.

Technical Issues and Market Sentiment

It keeps muting you. It keeps unmuting me. I'm going to drop down and come back up. BK, you should probably do the same. And then we'll continue with this. But for Michael now, want to jump in for now? Yeah, sure thing. Market sentiment being fairly straightforward. The market's making new all time highs. You can't really be super bearish when that's happening. But like everyone mentioned, we are in a seasonally choppy time. So I think we need to be a little bit careful about that. But when we see bitcoin running, you know, just any bitcoin maximalist, close your ears for a second. But bitcoin's a risk asset. It responds very well when people want to take risky bets, and it sells off when people don't. So I've been using it for a while now as kind of my canary in the coal mine for what's happening there. And we had a massive rip over the weekend and last night into today in bitcoin. So market's hitting new all time highs. There's evidence out there that people are taking on risk, more risk appetite. That's obviously going to be a good thing.

Cautious Optimism Amidst Political Uncertainty

So now it's just is are we going to enter that choppy season? I continue to be in this kind of buy the dip mode that's been working out. Haven't really been selling the rip because we've just been grinding new all time highs. But again, that election coming is the only thing that's worrying me. If this price action was just existing in space without needing to care about your guys's, the Yankee election going on there in a few weeks, yeah, I would just say we're ripping new all time highs. All lights are on. Away you go. However, the one thing I do want to bring up is that after the election, generally speaking, that's bullish time. If you really study the seasonality again, it doesn't matter who wins. We usually get a move into the end of the year higher and then in the beginning of next year as well. So I don't know if the markets may be front running at this time, but certainly nothing technically I can see to bearish. It's only the seasonality that has me a little bit more cautious.

Market Insights and Trading Strategy

Awesome. Hey, Sam, you want to try drop me coast once more? Yeah. It says there's already two co hosts. I don't know who. I don't know who else is co host. I got a run. I got a run. Just want to point out that oclo Oklo just hit our 1129 target. So whoever got in, congrats. Time to bring the bell. I'll see you guys next week. Thank you, Ben. Okay, and BK, let's see if it meets you again. You want to try to finish that thought on market structure, then we will keep going up here? Sure, sure. Yeah. It's just a short, small support resistance indicator that, you know, helps keep in mind that although, you know, the line in the sand that you have on your chart may be broken, there's a reminder to always be looking both out and keep zooming out until, you know, you've set your rules. Whether it's bullish or bearish structure and whether you want to remain long or short, regardless of your shorter zoomed in lines, you are good. Remind to always zoom out and change your timeframes.

Market Structure and Analysis

Beautiful. Make sure you guys are following luxalgo. They're killing the game, especially when it comes to indicators and all that good stuff. And a lot of use them for making our picks. Okay. I'll turn back to you, Sam, to keep rolling. All right. We'll go over to Jordan. We haven't heard much from Jordan yet. Jordan, are you back from the store? I am here. Okay. We got you. All right. Sounds good. Well, I know most of this panel is feeling very bullish. Hard to disagree. I mean, you keep looking at that spy daily. I feel like it's boring at this point that we're coming on and it's like, yeah, we're all bullish still, because it's just like, I mean, at the end of the day, you look at the chart, it's up and to the right. Higher highs, higher lows. I'm in agreeance with the panel here. I don't, I don't know how you can see anything bearish here chart wise, except for, you know, whatever fundamentals or seasonality may be going on, which I totally understand.

Navigating Volatile Markets

But, you know, if you tried to get short based off seasonality from last month, I mean, you didn't do very good. Right. Things came back pretty strong at the end of the month. And I just think positioning yourself solely off of something like seasonality or some data point is it could be detrimental to your account. Right. So I think always making sure that price action is following your analysis on whatever internals you're thinking about the market could do. You know what I mean? Just making sure price action always lines up with that at the end of the day because price action never lies. And I mean, this whole year, even I would never advocate for this, but I mean, even if you were buying at every all time high instead of the dips, you're still doing significantly. Well. It just goes to show how strong this market is. And until again, I see, you know, some lower highs, lower lows, actual market structure changing and this bullish structure breaking. I'm not, I'm not going to go that way.

Maintaining a Bullish Stance

I have been taking some shorts intraday, scalping the futures around. Happy to take intraday shorts because we all know how intraday price action can be. Just, you could play that stuff back and forth. But in terms of swings, I have not swung short in a long time and I don't plan to until I actually have a reason, and I don't yet. So we're still swinging long shout out paper. Got my eyes on coin a little while back and we've been riding that. Had a pretty big day on coin today. We're going to see if we can keep it going. But looking beautiful on the charts. I don't see a reason to bearish here. And I think, you know, if you do have that thought, maybe just wait till that price action starts to align with your thesis a little bit, in my opinion, and might save yourself some money. But, you know, everybody's style is different, so I understand all the thoughts out there, but charts are looking beautiful, so let's keep it going.

Stock Picks and Market Sentiment

Love to hear it. We'll go over to Nick. Go ahead, Nick. For stock picks. Yes, sir. I think everyone up here is kind of giving their sentiment, so. Yeah, go ahead, man. Well, yeah, well, okay, so we got a little bit mixed up here and made my fault. A lot of people did their stock picks earlier, some didn't. Nick, if you would just want to give market sentiment first, then I think we still have stock picks coming from you and Michael, now Jaguar and Jordan and Evan. So I think you can start with market sentiment. We can come back around for that. We have time. I gave a market sentiment a little bit earlier. Okay, well, if you did, get yours in, and apologies, Sam's hosting because I am currently about to walk into an Uber, so I've not been as closely paying attention. Then, yes, stock picks it is.

Investment Strategy and Insights

All right, first pick I'm going to go with is QFin. This is a chinese stock that actually started to break out and started its uptrend well before, like the rest of the chinese stocks did. And that's always something that I try to key in on. What are the stocks that are making new highs before the indexes are making new highs or before the ETF that aligns with a theme is making new highs? And outside of that, you can see a lot of the chinese stocks have gapped down and really kind of stayed down for the last couple days. But QfiN had maybe never even went below the 20 day EMA, but undercut the ten day just twice, never closed below it, and is trading above all the key moving averages. So what I'm looking for here is if we get Kweb, like, chinese Internet, to have a gap down or like a quick sell off to the 20 day moving average, I'm hoping what we'll get with QFin is another test of that ten day EMA right around 3170.

Further Stock Insights and Analysis

And then that would be my entry versus the pullback low, which would be right at $30. And the 20 day EMA is right around there as well. So kind of two protective areas before my stop, and if we get that, like, kind of final flush before a snapback rally in K web, then we should be pretty well positioned in QFiN because that has not been pulling back at all. I think within, let's see, about 1% off its highs while the rest of the chinese names are down quite a bit more. So great strengthen right there. Qfin is my first long and my second long. I'm just going to run back asts. This is a stock that rallied. I want to say it was like 1500% in 20 weeks or so. Since then pulled back 45%. We're starting to see a higher low put in. Last week, we just pushed through the 510 day emas today.

Capitalizing on Growth Opportunities

We closed right on the 20 day. So if we get kind of a, I don't want to call it a final push, but a shift from quality stocks and quality growth to more of those speculative assets with bitcoin and some of the very fast moving stocks before we get a correction, then asts should have that fits that profile of stocks that can generate very large alpha in a very short amount of time. So asts and Qfin both on the long side. Awesome, man. We'll go. Since we're going through the stock picks now, we'll go over to Evan and then we'll keep moving forward. Evan, go ahead, man. Do I run it back again or do we go different? I think you run it back again, Evan. All right, good enough for me. Mstu long. And then I'm gonna short mstz. Up.

Volatility in Markets and Future Predictions

1% of my head was like, all right, am I getting about to go long MSTZ and short MSTU, but not quite yet. We'll see. We'll let that come to me. As Jordan was saying, the charts are still kind of looking like this. So I won't try and preempt it, but I'm setting myself up to either come first and last in these competitions. And we'll say Mstu long, which is a two X long microstrategy ETF short MsTz, which is a two X short microstrategy ETF. So I'm basically getting double two x long microstrategy twice. Awesome, man. Well, we'll go over to Jaguar for your stock picks. Go ahead, man. All right, let's do this. Number one, intuitive surgical ISRG. It would report earnings on Thursday, this coming Thursday before market opens. And actually, let me just check on that.

Earnings and Performance Predictions

No, I'm wrong about that. After market close and to the surgical will report earnings on Thursday after market close. I expect this company to report a blockbuster quarter. The stock has been consolidating in a tight range between 475 and 490. I expect this to break out and make a run over $500 per share and here's why, in case if anybody has been following the story, DaVinci five launch was a massive launch for the company, which was originally announced in December 2023. And then it took a little bit time to get it off the ground. And now we have seen some progress around that. The American College of Healthcare Executives, a magazine for healthcare leaders that provides focused coverage for emerging trends in healthcare management, late September published an article with very early data showing better profit contribution on intuitive surgical's new DaVinci five robot.

Advancements in Medical Technology

So get this, just how easy selling point this is for intuitive surgical to hospitals. This article is highlighting that DaVinci five is 15% less operative time, takes less 15% less operating time, and results in 10% direct cost savings in a single surgeon's early experience utilizing the technology in just one sort of procedures, which is cholecyctami. I guess I chew that word pretty badly. Procedure. The total contribution margin per day on DV five or DaVinci five was 21,308 versus $14,619 for the prior system called da Vinci four. This is a difference of $6,689 more contribution margin per day. And this is precisely what the selling point if you assume 250 days per year when the machine is being used in hospital, this would equate to over $1.4 million more profit to a hospital on da Vinci five system over a course of a single year.

Strong Market Positioning

And when you compare that to the price of DaVinci five, which is less than a million dollars above the prior system, it becomes an I incredibly strong selling proposition, according to this journal. And I think the company is using this very basis to sell it to the hospitals. We saw a little bit of an uptick the last time when the company reported earnings and its procedural growth in DaVinci five. I expect this time, this particular growth, to accelerate. And we should see this in the numbers when the company reports earnings on Thursday after market close. So the first pick is long intuitive surgical into earnings. The second stock is going to be Equifax, symbol E F X. This is, as you all know, this is the company that provides. This is one of the three companies that provides, you know, credit reports to consumers and businesses, mostly to consumers.

Financial Reporting Expectations

Equifax will be reporting earnings this week as well. And let me check, that's actually on Wednesday. That is October 16, Wednesday after market close. I expect this report to be stronger than expected as well. And here's why. This company issued a really low ball guidance back in middle of July when they provided the guidance for the second half. Why? Because they were not entirely sure as to where the trajectory of the Federal Reserves cuts was going to be. Remember, there was a lot of back and forth between, oh, it's going to be 25 basis points or 50 basis points of cut. On top of that, the timing of that was also question mark. So companies that are directly impacted by mortgage rates, and that's what Equifax basically sees, a high 92% correlation with the refinancing activity in the country.

Predictions Around Market Performance

They weren't sure exactly back in the middle of July when they were announcing third quarter and second half of 2024 guidance as to what to expect. Well, they actually, they guided to a 7% decline in the number of inquiries that they expect. They expected in the third quarter of 2024. But according to a website called optimalblue.com, which feeds into the NBA mortgage application tracker for mortgage rate locks, it is pointing to a 10% year over year growth in the third quarter of 2024 versus the company guided to a 7% decline in the number of inquiries. That's a very big delta of 17%. So I believe that the street is expecting bad numbers and they're going to blow those numbers out of water with a very strong number and should guide higher as well when they report earnings this Wednesday after market close.

Final Stock Picks and Market Opinions

And that is equifax, mind you. This data that I'm quoting from optimalblue.com, comma, it is 92% correlated with equifax sales, or I should say vice versa. Equifax sales are 92% correlated to this data. The point being we should see a nice, easy, clean beat from Equifax because the refinancing activity has sharply picked up since the Fed cut rates about on September 18. So good quarter in as well as good guidance from Equifax. Let's see, in that scenario, the stock can bust through $305 to $310 per share and make a new 52 week high versus the stock currently at 291. That's my second pick. So again, long, intuitive, surgical and long equifax eFx going into earnings. Both are reporting this week. Thank you for having me.

Concluding Remarks and Future Opportunities

Awesome, man. I think we just got a couple more people for their stock picks. We'll go over to Bkselgo and then we'll go to our final two. Go ahead, man. All right, so yeah, a little riding this risk on bitcoin excitement. My two picks are going to be around that. So I took kano I think that was paper is right. You can take eth u. That one's still available. I think I got my alts. So. So yeah, running my back up here. is Mara first pick. You know, bitcoin miner holds one of the largest public companies holding bitcoin. And second option there is going to be BTCL. So leveraged long bitcoin, I believe that's a two x from T Rex there. And Mara, the bitcoin miner and bitcoin holder.

Investment Strategies and Risks

Mara. You got it man. You said Mara was your first one. Marae. Yep. You got it. We'll go over to Jordan. Jordan, go ahead, man. Alrighty. Well, tslt did not do me very good last week so I'm gonna run that back though. I love this dip off the robo taxi event. I'm actually not long it yet in options. The iv is still a little high for me so I'm trying to wait and let that flush out a little bit and get a little better there. But I love the chart. It's just for me, the iv right now is nothing. It's, it's not horrible, but it's not great for me. It's like not quite worth the squeeze.

Navigating Market Fluctuations

So I'm trying to wait and see if I can get that flushed out a little bit. But I mean, holding this higher low structure on Tesla, obviously that was a nasty candle after the robo taxi event. No lie. I definitely got smoked a little bit on that. I was long into that. But I've also been long since that August bottom right. So we've done well to the, on the way up and took the loss there. Thankfully coin is covering all that on the options trades lately that thing has been ripping. So I'm going to run it back tslt long. And then I had, I'm going to go AAPB which is the two times leverage. Apple's been in this weekly consolidation for a while.

Bullish Outlook on Market Performance

I mean I, I think it breaks to the upside given the impulsive, bullish trend we've been in to with this beautiful weekly consolidation. But at the end of the day, I just don't know when. Right. It doesn't have to happen this week. I would love for it, especially for the contest. And it's looking good. It's looking like it could try but I don't know for sure. So we're going to try with that. I'm not actually long either of these names right now. I'm just long Coinbase, Microsoft and Google. But looking to actually get long Tesla as well. Probably not touching Apple right this second, but in my real account. But we're going to try it for the contest. So that's what I'm rolling with. Two times leverage Apple, AAPB long and tslt long.

Confidence in Tech Market

Two times average Tesla. If I'm not wrong. Awesome. Not wrong. Paper. He took aapbit. Give it to Jordy. No, no. It's okay. It's okay. I have. I didn't realize. No, no, I told it. I am long Apple. I am long Apple. Side note, November. Are you sure I can switch? Because I was trying to dm you to take this. So take it. I think it's great. I'm long the stock heavily. I'm long options for November 15, but I don't know, I'm getting a little fomo, guys. I'm just saying it's possible.

Final Stock Picks and Adjustments

I would like to. So what are you taking in transfer for that? What are you gonna grab? Eth you? Since nobody picked it, I don't think that people really know about this ticker. But eth you. I'm. I'm just, you know, if it wasn't for Avax. Michael now might even pick Avax. You never know. But I'm gonna go Ethan and I'll swap it for the apple two x. And Jordy can have the Apple two x. Thanks, baby. Yeah, they're both good, though. I'm just gonna ride. I'm gonna ride with Evansde. So either we continue to go up to the upside, or we get absolutely demolished.

Conclusion and Future Market Trends

Let's go apple. This week with an epic pullback. Awesome. Guys, I think we just have Michael left, if I'm not mistaken. So, Michael, go ahead, man. Saving the best for last. Don't forget, our avalanche is available. I have no idea what that stock is. And in fact, I don't know what any stock I trade is. It's crypto. Oh, crypto. You don't remember Avax? Yeah, maybe. Yeah. More buying dips and selling rips in this so that I own a bunch of crypto. So I hope that rips, of course, own a bunch of MSTR as well. But, yeah, I'm the Algos again. My job is not to pick stocks. My job is to pick which algorithms I think are going to work the best and then kind of let those algorithms pick what stocks to trade.

Algorithmic Trading Focus

So more focused just because of the whole election thing going on, you know, buying dips, selling rips mean reversion algorithm. That's part of stats edge pro. You can check out in my bio, my website there. So again, I don't know what these guys do. I don't really care too much. Right. All I know is that I have data going back to 1980 to prove by used. If I trade these in the way the algorithm says I trade it, I'll do fine in the long run. So that's kind of where I'm focused more than anything. So first one is LRN Stride Inc. Down like 712-3456 like ten days in a row.

Mean Reversion Trading

All the way down close to the 200 day moving average. This is the. Yeah, the mean reversion algorithm that is working out very well. I think the both picks from it last week were like 15% each. And $70 seems to be a huge area that it broke out of a long time ago. So, you know, we're looking for about a week play. We're looking for a little bit of a pop not to get married to this thing or make it go back to all time highs or anything like that, just to see. Now, for me personally, I would probably get out if we had to close below that 200 day moving average. The algorithm has a stop in it, but it's just a little complex to explain on error.

Earnings Speculation and Caution

Uses average true range, but yeah. So if it pulls back to this $70, that's probably where I'll get involved. Any close below that 200 day moving average, time to go 14% short float, nothing too wild. And then the only other thing to note is it has earnings in six days for me. I know some people like to speculate on earnings. I don't, just because I don't have a system that I can point to with that much data to prove that I have any edge there at all. So I just avoid that. So it's saying the 22nd aftermarket close is earnings. Just be a little careful if you're planning on holding that to the long run.

Long-Term Market Trends and Strategy

But yeah, the monthly chart on this one is insane. It's gone from $20 to 85, 90 over the last few years. And yes, when it makes a sharp downturn like this, sometimes these are good little dips to get. Now, I think it was Nick I was talking about, astxe. That was going to be one. So that one looks good as well. That one came from one of the breakout systems. But I'm going to go with Rackspace RXt. This must be, it's got to be some sort of corporate action or reverse split or something. Data center. Data center. Yeah, I just, I'm just seeing, I'm seeing twelve days to cover on this name, that seems pretty wild to me.

Short Selling Strategies

So I thought there might be a corporate action that's messing with the short data. for those who don't know, days to cover is just the amount of shares held outstanding short divided by the average volume. So it just shows that if shorts had to get another position, it's going to take them twelve days to get out. And this one can be pretty volatile. So there is a chance for a short squeeze. had a nice little push up from, I think, 175 or so to almost like 280 or so over the last number of weeks. Now it's pulling back to 250. If it holds this 250, that's. I really like the look of that. To push higher.

Market Potential and Closing Remarks

If it gets going, we've got that short float that could get things going. You know, it's only 10% of the shares outstanding. But again, I like that days to cover number more just because it shows us that, hey, yeah, these guys, if they have to go because it's not a super liquid security, they're going to have to. They're going to have to hit that hard. So fairly low float, right? 89 million shares in the float and only 600 million share in market cap. So just FYI, you got to be careful when you play lower float. Lower cap is a double edged sword. If you're right, you're going to be really right. And if you're wrong, you can. You can have a bad time. But yes, that's RXT and Lrna.

Final Updates and Closer Thoughts

And are you long or short on those? Long on both. Awesome, man. I think that was everyone. I have everyone logged in. Did anyone take Netflix, which is reporting Thursday after market close? I don't think so. Did anybody take Netflix? If I'm not mistaken, you almost hate Netflix. Netflix reports on Thursday after market close and nobody took it. I find that very interesting. Probably for good reasons, to be honest with you, because my channel checks are not all that very strong either. So probably see a dip in Netflix after. After earnings. But I was just curious.

Final Remarks and Future Insights

I don't think anybody took Netflix. Does anybody have any final thoughts before. Before we kind of wrap this space up? Gov just texted me and said he is throwing Celsius into the mix for his pick feeling. If you're going to make things up, you should make things up that are non believable. I'm just saying it was. He just texted me. Celh long for Wolfie Gav. Do we usually hear pics from you? I can throw in some pics. Did Evan already take MSTU? He did. Did he take short MSDZ? He did. Ok, let's see. Let's take, let's take this other stock that I was looking at earlier today. I think it's Bkhdev.

Investment Exploration

Let me see. I was looking at this one earlier today. Let me find this. Actually, you know what? I take it back. I take it back. Put me down for meta long. Actually, double leverage metalong. So FBL, which is double average meta. Did anyone take that? BK, did you take that? Nope. Okay. Put me down for double leverage metalong, which is FBL. And then put me down for. Let me see, let me see. Put me down for nu new Nu holdings. That thing's been going crazy lately. This is a Kim stock. Kim put it on my radar and it's been really doing very nice. And it came out of a big dip in the last month and it almost broke even.

Conclusions and Market Trends

So I kind of like how this one's looking. So yeah, those. Put me down for those two awesome guys. Well, it's great to talk to everyone up on stage. It's a pleasure to be here. Be sure you're following everyone up on the panel. Like I've said, the average was about seven. We were up 7%. So these guys do know what they're talking about. So be sure you're following all those guys. Be sure you're checking out lux elgo, our co host. But overall, guys, this was a great space. If anybody doesn't have any final thoughts. So I'll close the space up. Luck to you. Have any final thoughts? No, no, we do it. We do have another space after this.

Continuing the Discussion

We're going to keep this open. Oh, never mind, guys. Yeah, with this space, we're actually open on for a little while now here. Final thoughts. If we do get a dip, I found an old graphic, but it's just a diagram of a potential election dip, then rip. But that is historically what it looks like. Just in case anybody was wondering. Sam, it still doesn't let you semi coast, does it? It does not. Okay. No worries. Okay. You're good. You're good. A few people are going to be staying on with us. Jaguar staying on. We have a few more people that are popping in here in the next five to ten minutes.

Future Market Discussions

We are going to be doing a little like 40 minutes thing here on long term investing. So if you want to change the title to long term investing with just capitals on each word, that would be perfect. And Jaguar, I'm actually going to roll right into it with you since we do have the stock picks in. That's obviously just for the week and it's a little shorter term, but I think people at this point are still filling out, you know, their long term investments, their retirement accounts, all that good stuff. And I'd love to hear from you some information here on what your approach has been lately to long term investing. You know, how it differs in your mindset when you're picking for a short term pick versus long term, all that good stuff.

Long-Term Investment Strategies

Yeah, sure. For me, the easiest way to build a strong portfolio of high growth companies that can reasonably outperform the market is finding compounders that are pulling back to important supports. And I know it's easier said than done, but there are opportunities like this all the time that's in front of you. And I'll give you some hard examples. You know that, for example, we have talked about multiple times that a company like Kratos defense, KTOs, is the best of breed drone maker in the country. And if you simply just look into the warfares and combats that are taking place between Russia and Ukraine, or even between the threat between israeli and Iran and other parts, they're all being fought by drones.

Market Analysis and Investment Confidence

There are no humans involved to the extent that you would have seen in the past, right? I mean, in fact, I have a detailed analysis of the last year of all the major combats that took place in different parts between Russia and Ukraine. And you will find out just how much drone systems have been used in these warfares. The best breed for that in the United States is Kratos defense. Any time when that company is going to pull back, it's a compounder, double digit percentage compound, or the top line sales with a very large book and growing book of contracts, anytime, and that thing is going to pull back, it's simply going to present you a buying opportunity.

Investment Approaches and Strategies

And that's precisely how I approach it, where my simple way of running a long term portfolio, such as my IRA has always been, I hold a core position in my favorite names and then I run a bandwagon around it, basically turning the volatility to my advantage. And what I mean by that is, for example, I would always hold, for example, the 50% of the desired position in that stock and then just add any time when it pulls back five to 10% I would added on that dip. And anytime when it goes right back up, I will sell the very dip that I bought. Constantly running bandwagon around it. 5% usually is my threshold now, what this does is because I'm constantly adding and constantly selling the rental that I'm taking while always holding the core position.

Engaging with Market Volatility

My average cost on that stock will always go higher over time, even though I would be holding my core position for a long period of time. And that's always the case in my portfolio. But this allows me to stay engaged with the volatility and turning it against, you know, turning it in my favor. You're probably going to get a lot of volatility, stupid volatility, because of dumps. Dump, you know, I should say dumpster fire politic. That will happen after the elections. You may see some very good names just come down 510 percent for really no good reasons. That's where you should be prepared to buy those dips in those long term compounders.

Investment Opportunities Post-Election

Kratos defense is one of them. We've talked about this many times. Boston Scientific, BSX is another one. Embryer, which I've been vocal on, you know, saying multiple times on spaces and on Twitter, that is symbol ErJ.

Boeing and Airbus Duopoly

This company is the first company ever in our lifetime that is going to break the duopoly of Boeing and an Airbus. And particularly, it's going to disrupt Boeing, and I believe in that. And it's going to do so not only in the commercial side, but to a certain extent on the military side as well. We are waiting for Airbus, sorry, for embryo Erj, to announce a very large order for sea 390 planes from India. The similar type of order that they have been getting from other parts of the world, that's the military jet. And there have been contemplations around this that it could be as much as four to $5 billion order initially. That could rise substantially from there. To give you some context, that would be two times the number of the entire order book that they have. And it's coming at some particular point. That's just on the military side.

Commercial Side Trends

And then on the commercial side of things, if you simply compare the delivery forecast, I mean, these companies publish that data right on their website. If you simply look at the trends of the deliveries of embryo jets and compare that to Airbus or Boeing, you'll see for yourself exactly how strong the trends have been in the company's favor. And so I have been vocal on multiple times saying that this is a stock that's going to $100 per share. Use any pullbacks, you get a five or 10% pullbacks, you get to basically buy the dip. What you're getting the very pullback right now in embryo ERj, which was as high as 36 37 pullback to 33. That's precisely the pullback we're talking about. And that's what I did just this morning. I bought the dip on ERJ. While always holding the core position, I expect this stock to go right back towards $40 per share in time.

Long-Term Investment Strategies

So names like these are long term compounders because they are uniquely positioned to either disrupt the prior status quo in whatever industry they might be in, or they may be simply benefiting from the strong new emerging trends that are in front of us, such as drone technology and all of that. You can find those kind of ideas in tech or whatever favorite sector you may have. Use those pullbacks on silly pullbacks that happen for no good reason, but outside noise to add in during those dips while always holding a core position and then trim those as these stocks go right back to its new 52 week high. That's how I approach the market. I gave you guys a couple names. I can always come around later and talk about a few more.

Investment Philosophy Overview

Yeah, no, I appreciate Jaguars thoughts as always, and I definitely do agree with a lot of his sentiment. My favorite thing that jaguar does, he always comes here with like that, the play, but also kind of the thinking behind it. So I like thesis and everything. So I'm a fan of jaguar, my long term investing style. You guys know I believe in broad based market indexes. I really do. It's very possible to beat the market in the long term picking individual stocks and I dont want to take away from people. But I also think you dont need to make it harder than it has to be. Maybe 60% of your portfolio is picking individual stocks and 40% as indexes. For me, its close to 70% broad based market index as a goal in 30 20% individual stocks.

Investment Strategy and Market Understanding

But I think theres the spectrum for everyone and the way I like to push people is 99.99% of market participants or people who are doing stuff. Maybe not that high, but like 90 95% of those market participants really should just be in those broad based indexes. And I really do believe there's a spot for that type of thing in everyone's portfolio. So I'm actually also about to be going to the airport here, so I don't have too much time to kind of go in depth into it and share some thoughts there. But my background kind of like I was, it's a strong word to say. I was a financial advisor before this, but I was there for a couple of weeks and I passed all the tests. So technically I am as qualified or was as qualified as any other, maybe like a financial suggestor, but yeah, no, but yeah.

Understanding Market Mechanics

So I passed all the exams and stuff like that. And that also, I think, kind of informs a lot of my viewpoints here. And that, like, you know, it's great. People are going to outperform me years, and I love to see my friends doing great in the years. But, you know, my goal here is to compound something over decades and I'm okay to. To not come in and get some crazy returns every single year in favor of creating something that's more long term and stable. So that's the way I kind of look at it. There's a lot of different places and ways that people can do it. It is definitely possible to beat the market, the s and P 500 consistently over time. I mean, Warren Buffett, but it's very difficult.

Market Respect and Long-Term Investments

And, you know, I think sometimes people come in and think it's easier than it is and don't show their respect to the market and to picking stocks and whatever, and you're going to fuck around and find out is how that tends to go. So I respect the market. I respect that I have time in the day about and choose how I spend it. And I invest the core into how much time I have to do the research into these plays and where that's how I invest. Maybe a little bit of a ramble there, but yeah, that's pre airport, Evan. Well, thank you, Evan. Have a safe flight. Have fun in Miami.

Investment Technique Insights

So we got this book on long term investing. It's called the Stock Traders Almanac. The 25th edition, the 50th edition is hitting the warehouse. We should have some soon. But the core long term technique, methodology, strategy there is really based upon cycles, patterns, seasonals. But we do overlay that with fundamentals and technical analysis. And if you look at the history of the best month switching strategy, it beats the market with two simple trades a year. It's also a mindset that you don't want to be getting into long positions in the spring, April, May, when the market's up and you want to be looking to get into these October sell offs. This year, we're not really having one.

Investment Timing and Strategy

Everyone's going to come out and beat up the best months and have at it because that just makes it work over the long haul because it doesn't work 100% of the time, nothing works 100% of the time. I don't work 100% of the time. I'm sure Wolf does and I'm sure Jaguar doesn't ever dozen. I think it was going to be in a flight not working for a little bit, so. But the point being is that, you know, you got to learn from your investment mistakes. You got to let your winners ride. Sell your losers short. Stocks, as Jaguar was saying, picked out a couple of, you know, very sound plays there. I like what he's thinking there.

Market Analysis and Stock Selection

I don't necessarily dig into the stories as much anymore. I get my stock picks from the numbers. We run a robust screen and we're usually doing it right around now after Q three earnings and we get our MACD best six months buy signal where we look at the stocks, we go through the whole Zacks database looking for stocks that are kicking off an acceleration of revenue growth and earnings growth with good valuations, not running away from the market, not lagging the market under, followed by Wall street, not a lot of analysts on it. And these are the kinds of companies that really just produce those outsized returns. We put stops in, we trim the losers, we let the winners ride, we sell half on a double as a rule.

Performance Example

We've done that twice with super micro since we recommended it in November of 22 at $81.93. I think it split adjusted now it's 819. So as a couple of plays in our large cap portfolio right now everything's just on hold. We're going to be putting out a new basket shortly. Some of the powering of the data center and building the data center companies m core, we just sold half on a double there. That's eme, just a little example. But you got to do your homework, stick to your strategy. Yeah, you make some adjustments over the time, but just because the market didn't have this picture perfect seasonal sell off like it had in 22 and 23 doesn't mean that's not going to work over the long haul.

Stock Market Understanding

I mean, you can go to the website and click on our strategy stock traders omnic.com and see the long term results versus buy and hold and versus the worst months and it just works. And you know, you have to understand and believe or at least accept the fact that the market is run by institutional big money and they operate on a quarterly basis. And our human society here revolves around these cultural behaviors where things happen around the third quarter and the fourth and first quarters tend to be much stronger. People are adjusting portfolios, managers are adjusting portfolios and putting money into the market at the same time each year. I've spoken about the October 31 deadline.

Personal Strategy and Market Focus

So our long term strategy, what I do in my IRA is everything that is in the newsletter. I'm doing about a third of the portfolio in the best month switching strategy where I'm buying the diamond spiders and cubes and russells around October when we get our buy signal and getting out of those positions in April, May, June, when we get our sell signals. And we have a whole sector rotation strategy where right now most of the stock sectors are coming into a seasonally bullish period. Some of them begin and end slightly different times. And we've got correlated ETF positions with buy limits on there and targets.

Future Investment Insights

And then the other third of the portfolio is going to be geared towards the stock picks which will be coming out the next week or so once we get through all the quarterly numbers and all the third quarter earnings are in and we can run the screens and dig into the charts and find some stocks that are sleeping under Wall Street's radar, but just making money and doing well. So that's the overall strategy and it's working. That's why we've been putting this publication out for as long as I've been alive, dude.

Long-Term Investment Approach

I mean, go ahead, man. So this company is the first company ever in our lifetime that is going to break the duopoly of Boeing and an Airbus. And particularly, it's going to disrupt Boeing, and I believe in that. And it's going to do so not only in the commercial side, but to a certain extent on the military side as well. We are waiting for Airbus, sorry, for embryo ERj, to announce a very large order for sea 390 planes from India. The similar type of order that they have been getting from other parts of the world, that's the military jet.

Introduction

Would you mind giving a brief introduction for the audience? Sure. Patrick Malden here wanted. I am been in this industry for 25 years. Coming up, I have been a financial advisor. I've also navigated a long term commitment to helping institutional investors. So I work a lot with registered investment advisors, endowments, family offices, banks, trust companies and so forth. And so, to be frank, we go a little deeper than the conversation we'll allow today. But the premise is to really help institutional investors figure out parts of their asset allocation and long term investment commitments. And so that's what I've been focused on for the last, call it 20 years. Beautiful.

Discussion on Allocation

So, can you speak a little bit to what Erichez was talking about there? This long term approach in the areas of allocating towards ETF's and yield focused products. And just a note, Eric, when you're not speaking, if you don't mute, we reverb through your mic back into the space. Just when you're not speaking. But Patrick, I'd love to hear your deeper thoughts on what Eric was speaking to there. Yeah, let me take a step here. Real quick because, I mean, we're talking. About investing for the long term. I overheard some conversations about individual stock picking and actively trading. This conversation is probably not going to address those type of investors. This is more, how do you figure out some of the nomenclature or lingo that this industry throws along at you? And with that, let's just deconstruct some of the concepts here. Long term investing and asset allocation. So let's start with the first. What does long term mean? And it means different things to different people.

Understanding Long Term and Asset Allocation

But at the end of the day, if it's at 510, 1520 years, I was going to be different for everybody. But we've sort of settled industry wise on ten plus years, which we define as long term. Okay, so asset allocation, that is really a diversification process. And I'll just say it this way for my active trader friends out there. When you diversify, I always say you have to apologize for something by design, right? Because what you're doing is you're trying to not have all your eggs in one basket, one stock, one ETF, one mutual fund, so forth and so on. So you really try to diversify your allocation. And so most people go, okay, so if I haven't, if I'm not sitting down with financial advisor, how do I think about this? Well, there's, you can google all this stuff out there. The common rule of thumb is to take your age, right, and subtract it from 100. So as an example. And that percentage will then be dedicated towards equities or stocks, right.

Asset Allocation Rule of Thumb

So if you're 40 years old, you subtract that. That leaves you with 60. So at minimum, you should probably look at a 60% allocation towards stocks and the rest, you know, we'll just say bonds for argument's sake. So 60 40, or in this case, yeah, 60 40. That's come under a lot of scrutiny, quite frankly. That rule has been around for a long time. And one, it's very simplistic, so it's a starting point. Secondly, you know, it is said that we are living longer. So if you're budgeting for retirement, what have you, if you're looking at this, you probably have to bake in a few more years so you don't run out of money. Simple. So the industry, those folks who subscribe to this rule of thumb, if you will, have bumped that 100 up to 110 or 120. So in that example, 120. So now you're out at 60% percent equities, but at 80. So you can see right there's a lot of wiggle room trying to figure out an asset allocation or at least the percentages of how you are to accomplish this.

Defining Risk and Market Conditions

But again, that's sort of the reality is everyone should consider this, and advisors I work with and clients we work with, we just say, look, everyone's different, and let's establish sort of a risk reward profile for you. And in other words, as Eric was saying, the PE ratio is a great indicator for long term, not such a great predictor for short term. We've got a lot of uncertainty. If you look around the world, people are getting a little nervous, not just with elevated pes, but also with what's going around the world. And then we've got this little thing called an election coming up. So we have to sort of be cognizant of this. So, folks, you know, ultimately, what is your risk appetite? How do you go about that? I always say, look, folks, it's your money, not anybody else's. What you do with it's your business. If you're looking for guidance, that's obviously a good idea. I think for many to help sort of shepherd you along in your journey.

Investing Strategies and Guidelines

So once you define your tolerance for risk, you establish through a risk profile, what have you, then you start beginning the fun stuff, which is, okay, now we got to fill the buckets. Let's just keep the analogy simple. We came up with a 70 30. 70 stocks, 30 bonds, or fixed income. Now we have to dive into the, let's go dive into the equity side. So is it growth? Is it value? Lots of folks are looking at value at this point because they're saying, well, you know what, their multiples aren't quite so high. Exxon came up a minute ago. Just look, comparatively, in the industry, if you're buying individual stocks, how does that relate to other companies? How are they positioned for the next market cycle, if you will? And so there's some great companies out there outside of, you know, what we would refer to as the mag seven that have been sort of stealing the show here lately.

Investment Categories and Risk Management

But then you got drilled down further. Large cap, mid cap, small cap. Do you domestics international? You bifurcate that between emerging markets and developed markets. So there are all these moving parts. Right? And of course, each carries its own risk reward profile. On the fixed income side, let's say we go back to our example of 30%. Well, you've got government securities, t bills, treasuries, so forth and so on. You've got municipals, you've got corporates. You can split up corporates between investment grade and high yield. And then there's other ones out there where you could sort of think about, okay, how do I navigate through this? How do I get the best yield? And ultimately, how do I do that in the most safe way possible? Now, the problem with bonds, prior to three or four years ago, we did enjoy a pretty long term bull market in bonds.

Bond Market Observations

Anybody who's been invested in bond funds, especially sort of the run of the mill aggregate bond funds, has probably been disappointed here over the last couple of years because it's just been so difficult with rising interest rates. And now the thinking is, okay, interest rates are coming down. We saw 50 basis point cut. If you look at sulfur, if you look at the dot plots and so forth, you can see that the market is starting to price in anywhere from five to six cuts. It was eight to nine cuts before they did the 50 basis points. So that's not a constant. It's always changing. So you sort of have to pay attention to what's going on, especially in fixed income, because as we learned unfortunately here recently, bonds are not the safe haven that they were, you know, sort of projected to be. And now you have to really think about things like duration. You have to think about credit, you have to think about convexity, you have to think about yield.

Yield Expectations and Market Conditions

Okay, how much yield am I wanting to get? Let's say you want five, 7%. Where do I go? How much risk do I take? Interestingly enough, six months ago there was a company here in Ohio. Most people know them. They're down in Cincinnati. And they offered a bond that was 17 basis points of above treasury at a five year duration. That's difficult to swallow, right? Because you're assuming that you're lending a company money. But if the government, which is government guaranteed, gives you virtually the same thing, why would you necessarily go down that road? Key is diversification. You have to think about these things, right? So. And then as I started thinking about this, we have left out a significant portion, which is cash. A lot of advisors will tell you, hey, 6912 months, depending on the situation, you should have cash reserves in case for a rainy day.

Cash Reserves and Alternative Investments

And then ultimately we forgot the whole classic class of alternatives. That includes commodity, includes, but not limited to commodities, real estate, and, you know, business development companies, so forth and so on. So there's an array of alternative that you could use in order to give yourself an additional diversification element and potentially, you know, safeguard your portfolios from a significant decline. I'll revert back to something was said earlier on 400, and I think Eric mentioned that 401 ks, right. So most of us have a defined contribution plan through our employer. That may be a simple sep, what have you, and those are your, you know, you put plow money in for your retirement, some max it out. We encourage as much as you can put it away.

Diversification and Target Date Funds

A lot of times you'll see these target date funds in there. These are interesting simply because they provide an avenue for somebody who may not be, is dialed into these things and say, okay, well, I'm not interested in learning. I don't want to necessarily, you know, actually look at this or have some work with somebody. I need something for the time being. These target aid funds accomplish that goal. And again, I'm, I don't advocate for them, but they are a tool in the toolbox that folks can use if they are so inclined and they don't get another, any other additional help in order to diversify them. And also as they're marching towards that goal, which is an, this case retirement, the, every year the asset allocation will skew to a quote, unquote, less risky scenario.

Revisiting Bonds and Investment Strategies

Again, that typically means you're taking away from equities and you're putting it away into bonds. So again, it hasn't worked out all that great over the last couple, three years. So we can go on and on. I'm not going to, I will say to you that bonds are of interest to me just because it's so difficult to really figure out what should I do? Should I go longer term because interest rates are going down? Do I lock that in? Is that already priced in? For the most part, it is. How do I think about these things? Should I say short on the curve? Should I go longer? Should I go in the belly of the curve? Again, this is for folks who are a little bit more astute in this process as far trying to figure that out.

Market Corrections and Risk Assessments

You know, I sort of look at this from a risk analysis standpoint again, and this is why I have to speak very general, because we're not talking about your particular account, but, you know, post GFC, great financial crisis, we've seen an elevated correlation in stocks right afterwards, quite frankly, everything was sort of pegged at the same. It's just, it's just all the same. And that obviously that has changed. And we can just see that by the, you know, the recent enthusiasm for the tech stocks. So again, to recap time horizon. Make sure you understand it. Understand the tax consequences, the financial demographics, such as your income needs. This is where I planning comes in nicely.

Emotional Risk Capacity

Your emotional risk capacity, that's really an interesting one, because again, everyone is different. Some folks have a lot more appetite for risk. Some folks do not figure out who you are, because in the case of a 2030, 50% decline in your account value, how will you feel? Right, markets go up, yes, but they also go down. And how do you insulate yourself? Win by not losing. There's an old saying there, if you lose 50% of your value of your investment, you need what to get back to even. And that number is 100% right. So be cognizant that drowndrafts or market declines can have a significant impact on your goals to achieve them. So, error on the quiver.

Conclusion

We certainly have tools, and I think this is where I'll segue over to Eric and let him dive more into what he's doing and how accomplishing those objectives. So, thank you. Yeah, thanks, Patrick. I want to just talk a little bit more about asset allocation. Asset allocation is different than diversification. Okay, diversification is maybe just owning eight large cap names in some different industries, but they're pretty much still going to move together with the market. If you own Eli Lilly, Costco and the mag seven, you're not fully allocated and you're barely diversified. When I got into doing what I do was in late 1999. It was right during this last tech bubble that had been coming because of dot coms and so forth.