Space Summary
The Twitter Space TESLA DEEP DIVE hosted by WOLF_Financial. Discover a unique blend of financial expertise and social media interaction in the 'TESLA DEEP DIVE' Space. With a Goldman Sachs Analyst turned CEO leading discussions, this Space offers valuable insights for wealth building through innovative uses of social platforms. Dive deep into investment research and explore the fusion of traditional finance knowledge with modern communication channels. Learn how experience and expertise shape engaging Spaces, providing audiences with in-depth discussions that impact investment strategies.
For more spaces, visit the Lifestyle page.
Questions
Q: How can social media enhance investment research and wealth-building?
A: Social media provides real-time data, networking opportunities, and diverse perspectives crucial for informed financial decisions.
Q: What sets apart a Goldman Sachs Analyst turned CEO in hosting Spaces?
A: Combining financial acumen with social media prowess, enabling in-depth discussions and valuable insights.
Q: Why is the fusion of traditional finance knowledge and social media skills essential?
A: It allows for a comprehensive approach merging established financial strategies with modern communication channels.
Q: What role do deep dive discussions play in shaping investment strategies?
A: Deep dives offer nuanced analysis, diverse viewpoints, and detailed information for more informed decision-making.
Q: How does experience impact the quality of content in wealth-building Spaces?
A: Experience ensures depth, credibility, and value in discussions, fostering trust and audience engagement.
Highlights
Time: 00:15:42
Social Media's Role in Investment Research Exploring how social platforms revolutionize traditional finance with real-time data and community insights.
Time: 00:30:18
Goldman Sachs Expertise in Spaces Insights from a former Goldman Sachs Analyst turned CEO, bridging finance knowledge with social media engagement.
Time: 00:45:55
Wealth Building Strategies through Spaces Discovering how Spaces sessions offer unique perspectives and data for optimizing wealth creation.
Time: 01:00:37
In-depth Investment Insights Delving deep into investment topics with experienced professionals to gain valuable knowledge for financial growth.
Time: 01:15:22
Host Experience Impact on Audience Engagement Exploring how hosting experience contributes to content quality, audience trust, and engagement levels.
Key Takeaways
- Learn how social media can be a powerful tool for investment research and wealth building.
- Understand the transition from a Goldman Sachs Analyst to a CEO in the context of hosting Spaces.
- Discover the significance of combining traditional financial expertise with modern social media platforms.
- Explore the wealth-building potential of leveraging social media and investment insights.
- Gain insights into the impact of deep dive discussions on shaping investment strategies.
- Understand the importance of expertise and experience in hosting informative Twitter Spaces.
Behind the Mic
Introduction and Overview
Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome on in for today's Tesla chat. Hop on up on stage and let's get it going. Larry, I see you in the audience there. It's not just Tesla Tuesday, it's the Tuesday prior to the NFL season. There's a whole lot of things going on this week to keep your eyes on. Tesla was one of the few that was holding green today and remains the only large cap tech name on my list that is green this afternoon. So how about that? A little bit of relative strength from the Tesla. You love to see it. Definitely. There's been continuous news, as there always is. There was some news this morning. I'll just recap a couple of quick things and see what I can get through here in time as we're waiting for a few of our speakers to join up on stage. And then I'll go around a couple of those that are up here. So let's see.
Latest Tesla Developments
This morning there was one that I was very much paying attention to, which was that FSD twelve, 5.3 supervised, has started rolling out to some of the Teslas with HW four. And that has something that you might have seen Omar last night posting on the timeline that he was going to post ass pics. But ass stands for actually smart summon. Thank you, Tesla, for the acronym. So that is coming out there, and that allows you to smart summon your vehicle. So that is the pics that he was talking about there on his timeline. Also, quick piece of news. 14,400 Teslas were insured in China last week. Really nice when you can get these little pieces of data that show us that we do have strength continuing in the market and things moving in the right direction there. So that was good to see as well.
Brand Loyalty and Market Trends
Also, according to a new report from the S and P global Mobility, Tesla is the leader in brand loyalty. So it said. Tesla continues its run as the leader in brand loyalty with a rate of 67.8% for the first half of 2024. Customer loyalty has remained relatively constant, so a good few pieces there to continue to keep your eyes on. Norway's electric car sales just had a new world record taking up 94% market share in August. And Tesla's Model Y led that with 18.8% of the market. So things need to be going in the right direction. There was a few other cool little pieces there around. Hypercars and supercars potentially looking to be electric. There was a release from Hyundai of their 2025 Ioniq five EV with an off road XRT trim.
Industry Observations
There was a piece around Cybertruck is going to be going on a tour in South Korea, and I think that covers a lot of the things that have happened recently. But let's get into it with this panel up here. Good afternoon, Larry. If you want to kick us off here with things that you've been looking at. Oh, not a lot to talk about today. Had a great restful weekend. I am in the midst of a deep dive into the re rise of hybrids in the global marketplace. China, Europe and us hybrids are actually growing faster than EV's. And between the two, they're killing gas cars in Europe. The very big news is Volkswagen is now beginning to die officially, having been dying unofficially for some years now, and the situation has reached crisis point.
Volkswagen Challenges
Volkswagen is going to have to shut factories. This is a criminal. This is viewed almost criminally in Europe, in Germany in particular. And time will tell how this plays out, but it's kind of a template for what may happen to other german car manufacturers. And the bottom line problem is not just electrification. It could be encapsulated in a single word. And that word is China. And this isn't even China coming to Europe. This is just China reasserting its own car companies and the european and american car oems, their investments turning to chalk in China, this is very bad news for the german manufacturers. It's equally bad news for the us oems, General Motors and Ford. And this is a disaster that's going to play out in the next couple of years as these car companies have to retreat from yet another major market.
Future Trends and Predictions
So we are going to see this play out, and we're going to see it play out in real time, particularly after these elections are over. Ford, Gmdeh Volkswagen and in addition, Mercedes and BMW are going to have to face up to dealing with their loss of market in China, which is abrupt and almost comprehensive. And they're playing at the edges trying to partner with successful EV companies. But this is not enough and it's certainly too late. So that's what I've been looking at, and we'll be talking about a lot more in the coming couple of weeks. That's about it. Perfect. Thanks so much, Larry, for kicking us off there. Simon, it's good to have you back on.
Market Insights and Tesla Valuation
Last time you're on, we discussed Tesla's valuation in depth. What have you been looking at most recently? I have glad to be back on the show again. You know, I'm the Tesla valuation guy. I think I'm locally known as here. I finally got around to updating kind of my model with the second quarter numbers and I wanted to chat about some of the insights. This is something that's becoming kind of a hot topic lately, just modeling out what we think Tesla's revenues are going to look like through the year 2040. I've had conversations with Ryan and a couple others about this who are speakers on this show here today. We're going to post this now directly on the seven investing site by the end of the week. Just because there's a whole lot of interest in this.
Tesla Model Insights and Market Dynamics
I think that people like to get into the model, tweak things, put their own assumptions in there. The bigger picture is that Tesla is a very complex company and a lot of moving pieces. And I think something like this Thats updated quarterly if not monthly, is very valuable for investors. So a couple of the takeaways just hit some of the high notes here. Ive got five high notes just to hit. The first was that the regulatory credits were at a record high 890 million in the second quarter. That was up from basically half of that in the first quarter, basically doubled sequentially and up from 567 million in the previous year. Interesting. Tesla says other oems are still behind on meeting their emissions requirements.
Energy Business Performance
They got a lot of regulatory credits. It's really good news for companies, I think, excuse me, for consumers that are looking for EV's. The second thing that really stood out to me was Tesla's energy business in the second quarter. Man, knocked it out of the park. Wolf, I'm sure you've talked about this on a couple of previous shows. Apologies. I've only been, I haven't been in Iran for a little while, so this might be old news for a lot of people, but 9.4 gigawatts, gigawatt hours deployed and 3 billion in revenue in the second quarter from the energy business far surpassed expectations that doubled year over year. It exceeded my expectation of 1.7 billion in the energy business for the second quarter.
Production and Sales Updates
Really, really good to see a lot of momentum and holding a steady growth margin of around 25% in that division. The third thing that I did was a production update. Again, Tesla buckets these into a couple of different categories. It reports the total production and the total deliveries of the S plus the X plus the Cybertruck together. It doesn't break them out individually, it groups them all together. And so we've kind of got to go back and do some homework to decipher these different puzzle pieces based on the nuggets of information that they do give us. So good news. The good news that's in the puzzle there is that the Cybertruck production tripled sequentially. And compared to the first quarter of 2024, it produced 12,000 cybertrucks out of Austin, versus around a little bit less than 4000 total up through the end of the first quarter.
Cybertruck Sales Success
So really good to see the Cybertruck not only producing well, but also selling well as well. It said that it was the best selling electric vehicle pickup in the United States in the second quarter. Of course, that surpasses the Ford f 150 lightning, and they think that this will be profitable by the end of the year. So good news. Cybertruck, awesome. I'm seeing them down here in Texas. I don't know if you guys are seeing them in the roads out there. They still look totally wonky to me. It's very strange to see this vehicle on the roads, but it is selling very well. It seems like it's getting some consumer momentum. The bad news is that when you look at the pieces. Yeah, okay.
Model S and X Production
If Cybertruck is doing so well, then they actually produced quite a fewer of the Model S and the Model X models during the quarter, by my numbers, down about 40% year over year. When you look at, they had about 20,000 produced in the second quarter of 2023. Only about 12,000 of those both produced in quarter two of 2024. Now, there's a little bit of hidden good news in this, being that they didn't need to produce as many because they had some inventory that they sold off of the lot, which was fine. Your deliveries look good for both the S and the X and the model three. So they were just clearing out a little bit of inventory, but still a reduction in production that we want to see just be quarterly and not more of a long term trend.
Production Numbers and Project Redwood
And then my fourth takeaway was, if you look at the overall vehicles produced, 410,000 produced in the quarter, versus 433 total delivered in the quarter. Again, you see Tesla is moving a lot of the inventory that they have stockpiled from before. The last takeaway that I had is that we did see a, I guess they're calling it Project Redwood. The model two, the $25,000 vehicle, the one that we want to see, part of the robo taxi and the full self driving mass market vehicle pushed out to 2026. This has been out there for a couple of months now. This is something I was long expecting even before these announcements of the delays.
Future Production Thoughts
I'm expecting 500,000 vehicles of that model to be sold in 2026. I think that it's going to take a little bit of time for Elon to get the costs in order for this vehicle, especially if he wants to sell for $25,000. He wants to do a lot of redesigning in the drivetrain and cut out silicon carbide and other things that would reduce the cost of this vehicle. You still got some engineering work for that. But I don't think that was a big surprise that we're seeing more and more delays, because that's something that we've just gotten used to for that project. Overall, Cybertruck, doing really well. A little bit of a move, the inventory off the books.
Investment Perspective and Conclusion
I've got some homework still on my model to look at the cost of goods sold and the operating costs. But again, I stand by the fact that Tesla is an AI company is very undervalued, where if Tesla is just a car company, it's probably overvalued right now. But overall, pretty good quarter for them. There's still some challenges in China. There's still some other production things that are hanging up. But I did like the second quarter at least compared to the first quarter in terms of an investment perspective. Always coming with the numbers prepared. I love it, Simon, I appreciate it and excited to hear people do have thoughts on those as well.
Penny's Observations
I did see Penny joined up before I maybe go over to a couple of the others. Penny, anything that's been going on in your mind while you've been watching Tesla recently? Well, I think the big news from last night, and I don't know, sorry for showing up late if you guys already started talking about it, but the actually smart summon, did you guys touch on that yet at all? Very briefly, just because Omar was saying he was going to post aspects. Yeah, I told Omar I wanted to see his ass last night, but definitely super excited to see the first videos on that. I only saw last night that he was downloading it.
Features and New Developments
I hadn't seen him post anything yet other than I think I saw him say that it was awesome, but I don't think I saw a video or anything. So definitely excited to see how that goes. Waiting for the latest FSD on my model three. I'm still running the twelve 4.3, which I love, but, you know, I'm getting a bit anxious for the twelve five myself. Definitely excited about that. I saw they're going to do a new six seat model Y in China, which is interesting. Hopefully that opens up the market for them to sell more of those there and then I loved hearing everything that Simon had to say.
Conclusion and Expectations
So yeah. Looking forward to the rest of the space. Thanks, Wolf. Absolutely. Thank you, Penny. Okay, Ryan, you got some thoughts here. A couple of numbers that have been given out, some of the features that are rolling out as well. Yeah, I definitely am interested in trying out. In the past, whenever I've tried some in, it's usually been after Costco's closed and there's a big open parking lot, and I'll just show my family or friends, especially like my mom or my grandma or my dad. They're just stunned by the fact that you can move the vehicle without being in the vehicle.
The Experience with the Car's Movement
When I got back closer to the car, I had it move, and it stunned her that she was moving. And she thought, like, something hacked into the car or something. She was just like, what's going on? She had no idea that was possible. So I think these types of scenarios were always possible. But then now with the summon being smarter than it was before, we're hopefully going to see more and more videos. And then as the general public starts to see those videos, they'll realize, oh, okay, Tesla has this feature that's part of this greater software suite or this greater software capability that the car is able to drive on its own. I think there's just still so many people that are unfamiliar and unaware of Tesla's software capabilities.
Awareness of Tesla’s Software Updates
They're unaware that you can connect your car to your home WiFi and then download a software update every month or two, and it improves because of the data that Tesla has available to its from its fleet. So I think as people become more aware of that, there's just going to be further adoption of the software and then also of the vehicles. Before it used to be the case, I mean, I guess it's still kind of the case now, but having adaptive cruise control in any vehicle and then having lane keep, those two were they covered like 95% of your driving? And that's what navigate on autopilot used, like I still kind of does for Tesla. Well, pretty soon the software is going to be good enough where it's like, well, okay, you really do want that extra 5%.
Future of Autonomous Driving
You want to be able to just relax in your vehicle on the cross, on the off streets, and just literally let it drive you, let it run your errands for you, it gives you back your time, which is a hugely valuable resource. And then, like, how much are you willing to pay for your time? And then if it's really fully autonomous, then you just stay at home and it's able to run deliveries for other people or it's able to provide like an Uber-like service. So I know I'm kind of preaching to the choir here, but a lot of these things, like, are still unknown. And it's just, it's quite frustrating really. You know, it's like you just, we're paying attention to this thing progress and then people in the public still are unfamiliar, so gotta just still tell them as much as we can.
Valuation Model and Market Perspective
So I guess that’s, you know, that's what I've been thinking with this whole actually smart summon. And then as far as the valuation model, it was fun talking to Simon. I think there's still differences in what we expect for the next ten years, but I guess in the short term, I think his idea that Tesla is undervalued for all of its businesses combined, but it's overvalued if you're just considering the vehicle business. I think that's true. Obviously. I believe Tesla is not just the vehicle business. It makes sense to judge it based on all of its businesses combined. The energy business is still super early. The ceiling for what that business could become is much higher than the vehicle business just because of the industries that they're playing in.
Implications of the Energy Sector
You're playing in the energy industry versus just the transportation industry. And the energy needs of the global, of the world are much larger than this transportation. And then you layer on all the AI projects. We haven't really gotten a big optimus update yet, or we haven't gotten one recently. And I feel like that should be coming just based on the cadence of updates in the past. It'd be cool to get one of those and probably will be getting one of those soon. So I think there's just so many things to be excited about for Tesla right now. There might be fewer updates than we've been receiving in the past or it just feels that way, but they’re constantly making progress.
Investment Motivation and Trust in Leadership
That's why I'm so happy to be invested in the stock. That’s why I'm happy to be invested in really stocks in general compared to things like, let's say real estate where like with real estate, you know, you can kind of control your own destiny. If you have your own house or you have your own portfolio of small houses and you just go and repair them, or you have people repair them and you manage them on your own, like you can control pretty much like how much improvement there is with the physical asset. With Tesla, you're dependent and you're relying and you're believing in Elon and the management team and the employees at Tesla to grow what you own. And I love that's the case. It takes the burden off of me and other owners and I fully trust Elon and the leadership team and the employees, and they're working twenty-four seven to increase the value of what I and we own.
Understanding Passive Ownership
And that's just, I think, an underrated thing. People don't realize that you can passively own something that is actively working 24/7 because they have operations around the world. And, and Tesla employees work harder than most other company employees. So it's like you just own this very productive asset that's constantly trying to push the value up and. Yeah, so, and I think amongst all the public companies that I found, Tesla is the best. I think over time it's going to be obvious to others that's the case too. But right now, you know, and for the next year, maybe we'll see some slowdown or some just flatness, but over time, it's going to be very obvious in hindsight, like, it kind of has been to me and some others for the last ten years.
Skepticism and Market Behavior
Like, well, okay, that was that was a very obvious run up. It didn't need to be flat and then just run like ten x and then stay flat again. It could just do this linear, very consistent, small growth throughout the next ten years. If markets were more efficient, then we would probably see that, because that's literally what's happening with the underlying business. But anyway, I'm just kind of ranting at this point. I just feel like, you know, like the stock is undervalued. I'm happy to be an owner, and it's exciting that they're making progress every day. Despite that, we may not see that every day.
Discussion on Neo Bot Introduction
What do you think? Did you see the neo bot introduction, Ryan? No, I haven't. Did they release something sweet or. How was it compared to the Optimus? Well, it doesn't have. It doesn't appear to walk yet, which I think is a big deal. It, you know, they showed some fairly impressive videos of it, like, grasping things and moving things around, but to me, it seemed like it was miles behind Optimus. I was just excited to see another player in the field. And, you know, that led me to believe that, you know, more and more people are believing that humanoid robots are the future.
Comparative Analysis of Robotics
But it did also give me confidence that. That it does seem like, you know, Optimus was moving a lot smoother and it seems like is a higher quality build from my point of view. I mean I don't know what you would expect from the first version from this other company or the first one they released, but yeah, I just continue to get more and more excited about Optimus and I agree with you that we'll probably do another update soon. Especially with these other companies releasing things. I think they're going to want to bring the robot attention back on Tesla.
Additional Insights on Electric Vehicles
Yeah, that sounds right to me. I'll definitely look at the neo update. It's one of those things where I feel like I'm such a Debbie Downer amongst my friends or people that I meet. Whenever I hear about a new electric vehicle company or I've heard of a new electric vehicle company over the past five to ten years, I've always felt like, well I guess it's nice that there's an electric vehicle company but I kind of prefer that there's only good new electric car companies. So like now, like today in 2024, I feel like, well I would almost prefer that there's only Tesla and Rivian because really if you have these not so great electric car companies then that's going to turn off the incremental new electric vehicle buyer.
Transition to Sustainable Energy
I personally really would not want somebody who's currently an internal combustion car, an internal combustion engine car owner to then jump into a shitty electric vehicle and then be turned off by it and then kind of not go back for like ten years. That delays the transition to sustainable energy transport. And I would much rather have only good electric vehicle products available and then people will just potentially more slowly transition. But I think over the longer term it causes a more rapid and I don't know, happy transition. So I kind of feel like that's going to be the same case with the robots. Like we want people's first experience or I, I want people's first experiences with a robot to be a good one.
Challenges and Expectations in Robotics
And I think in this case it's a little, I suppose it's a little different because robots are more likely going to be sold business to business at the beginning and like Tesla is going to use it in its own factories. They're going to probably sell it to SpaceX as the first client, so the first customer. And so it might be a little bit different because companies are more probably more savvy on the whole for products like this where they're spending a lot of money for a physical product. But I guess we'll see. Who knows? I just feel like at the beginning, we want great products, and Tesla's probably most equipped to do that.
Compelling Robots in the Market
Penny, which other robots do you think are the most compelling right now? I keep hearing about figure and I've seen some demonstrations and stuff. Listen to the CEO, but yeah. Well, who do you think is top, next to Tesla or even above Tesla, maybe? Well, I don't think anyone really compares to Tesla, to be honest. I think the Atlas robot by Boston Dynamics is really impressive in its own right, but it's completely different in the way that it's built, the way that it's intended to be manufactured, the brain that's in it, and the way that it operates. So I'm not particularly impressed with that figure.
Current Competitors and Market Dynamics
You know, it looks okay. I hear a lot of people in the Tesla community calling that company a scam. I don't know too much of the details about that, so I won't speak too much on it. And this new one from One X, the neo robot, it seems to me, I mean, it's like they had it wearing clothes, which makes me think they’re like definitely trying to hide a crude body. Its hand just doesn't seem to have quite the level of sophistication as the Optimus robot does. But I think that it's important that people start to see these robots and understand that they're being built and consider what the implications, because the world is changing rapidly and these things are coming.
Consumer Education on Humanoid Robots
So I'm not so much thinking about their first experience owning one. I don't think very many people are going to accidentally buy a $30,000 crappy humanoid robot, right? I think that they’re going to see which one works the best, and I think it's going to be like, super obvious which one works the best, because what we've seen from this One X company is a scripted demo, so to speak, right? It was like a movie or a commercial for their robot. But when we see these actually operating in factories and you can see how effective they are or are not when they're in people's homes doing dishes, folding laundry, whatever it is that we eventually use these robots for, you know, I think it'll be probably pretty easy to make the right decision.
Future Predictions for Humanoid Robots
But. But I do think that most people, if you walk down the street and you ask them like, you know, when are we going to see humanoid robots? they would think that we're at least a decade, if not multiple decades, probably 30 or more years away from seeing them walking around, you know, regularly on our earth. And I think it was JP Morgan that did some writing about it recently. And they're saying it's coming much faster than they had predicted in the past. And even though they are traditionally pretty conservative with their predictions on stuff like that, I think that even there, they think we're going to see a bunch of these within the next ten years now.
Optimism in the Robotics Field
So I'm really super excited about Optimus and I don't really see anyone competing just yet. I expect that's probably going to change. If not one of the electric car manufacturers in China, then some other big company in the United States. Who knows who it'll be. Landon, you want to jump into the combo? We covered a bunch of topics here. Curious your thoughts.
Landon’s Insights and Experience
You bet I do, wolf. Thank you very much. As we head into late summer here after Labor Day, I've got some winter time type news from some big locations. Big winter type locations. Norway, Colorado and the Arctic Circle. We got our boys up there driving their cyber trucks to the Arctic Circle at the top of Canada, the top of the world. Follow them online. I'll get you that URL here in just a moment. But it's the cyber Arctic trek team with Tesla, Tino and Gary Marks of blue sky kites. They're doing some really fun stuff.
Challenges in Arctic Travel
There's no chargers up there. There's nothing. There's no superchargers, there's no level two chargers. There's, you know, somebody's outlet at their house. Their 110 outlet is all they've got. So they're installing destination chargers as they go to help EV travelers in the future. The other Arctic team that is helping EV travelers is Norway. They are leading the world, hitting 96% of their new car sales are EV. Nobody else wants an EV. And what do you got in Norway? You got some snow, you got some cold temperatures, you got some high latitudes. You bet you do. And we've got that here in Colorado.
Tesla Adventures in Colorado
So this is Landon, your man on the street, your man in the mountains. And for Labor Day weekend, I grabbed 80 of my closest Colorado friends and 40 Teslas. And I completed a 750 miles trek on FSD, 12.5 in my brand new Tesla. We took the 40 Teslas from 6000ft down to 4000ft of altitude up to. We drove 40 Teslas up to 14,150ft. And man, were out of breath, were out of oxygen. But our Teslas weren't. No fuel mixture to worry about in those cars at 14,000ft.
Dispelling Myths about EVs
Really remarkable, so we're out here in Colorado just trying to dispel these myths that EVs aren't for, quote, everyone. EVs, quote, can't go far. Quote, no one wants these cars. Everybody wants these cars. Tesla Model Y is what? The best-selling vehicle in the world of any kind, not just EV. And that's what we're doing with our EVs here in Colorado. And Tesla has got some amazing vehicles on our Colorado website and our state and our federal governments here in Colorado, state government has added a big tax credit that you can take point of sale for the first time two weeks ago.
Economic Impact of Tax Credits
So that is massively affecting financing payments, big time affecting leases. You can find basic rear wheel drive model threes in Colorado with these incentives for just these insane lease deals. Sometimes less than $100 per month for a new model three. Did you hear that? Are Teslas $100,000? No. Can Teslas work in winter? No.
Tesla Enthusiasm and Community
Yes. We just drove them up to Pikes peak. It was 45 degrees. We're at 14,000ft and we're living in the future as far as I'm concerned. So that's why I'm involved with Tesla. Not just for the environment, not just for the stock price that is ready to moon again. And it's for the people and the product. And we love our Denver Tesla club and our western Colorado Tesla club and the Tesla clubs all around the world where people get together not to shine each other on, but to say, what are you doing with your spaceship car of the future this week? And we're protecting our families because they're the safest cars in the world. Appreciate being here. Happy to answer any 12.5 questions on my hardware for vehicle. Thanks very much, Wolf, for having me. Love this space. Such good comments and educated thoughts about the future here. Happy to be with you.
Discussion on Tax Credits in Colorado
Always a pleasure having you on. Does anybody have any specific questions in regards to what Landon just shared? Ryan or Penny? And have you been seeing a lot of people talk about the tax credits in Colorado? There's so many times I see on X that Colorado has by far the best incentives across the US. But I'm curious, in Colorado, if people seem to be taking as much advantage of it as they should? I got a big smile on my face. I really appreciate the question because it's a little bit humorous to me. We're all so helpful in our Tesla community. We want everybody to drive Teslas, get the latest ev and promote the mission for sustainable energy. Yes.
Outreach Efforts for Tesla Awareness
Sometimes it feels to me like here in the western Colorado Tesla club, Denver, Tesla clubs that we're being preached at from the larger, you know, Tesla community. Nobody knows. How come more people don't know? Well, I'm not sure what their measure is, but believe me, it is very important to us in Colorado to spread the word. We're a beautiful purple state. We like to think of ourselves as a little bit less controversial as far as politics. And we just want to live our lives and enjoy our freedom and drive our electric cars if that's our choice. So, yes, I feel like we know we're talking amongst our Tesla groups, we're talking in our local communities and we're having big time Tesla events. When we had 40 teslas at the top of Pike's Peak Mountain in Colorado, were inundated with the other hikers and travelers from around Colorado and around the world asking us about our teslas.
Details regarding Incentives and Options
So we're out here doing everything we can. I believe there's some other great state incentives around the US where like Washington state. If I'm not wrong, I'm not familiar with the Pacific Northwest incentives any more than to say, my friend contacted me and he says their state incentive is 9000. Colorado state incentive is 53.50 if you take it, point of sale. So there are some great incentives in a lot of different states. Take a look at the short term leasing. Take a look at the financing options that are ending, you know, this month, I think with the 1.99 financing on model Y. But there's a reason that it's the best selling car in the world. It just does everything really well. Thanks for the question. We're doing everything we can here in Colorado to get the word out.
Approaching Tesla Ownership
I'm on my fifth Tesla and absolutely loving the Tesla life. And can you speak a little bit for somebody that's, you know, just considering getting a Tesla? Now there's several models to choose from. How they, how do you think they should go about that? Absolutely. That's, that's right. I do have a sister in law type person in my life that was asking me just a very similar question. How do I know what Tesla to get? Well, you know, Tesla.com is the first step because Teslas, you buy online, you don't have to go to that nasty dealership where they're serving that weak ass coffee in there and I making you wait 2 hours for your car transaction and then bring you back for an oil change. Right? But you buy teslas online and model three is the sedan that is just a world beater.
Understanding the Tesla Model Choices
This is a sedan that maybe competes with, like, a BMW M three in the past or a three series in the past. So it's that size, maybe a little bit more roomy, and you can get those basic model three sdhe, you know, starting under $40,000 before you kick in a lot of these multiple thousand, $10,000 plus kind of incentives to help you bring your payment down. And you can choose whether you lease and you want to keep that for two or three years and turn it back in, or if you want to buy and all you have to do is grab one of those little mobile connectors for dollar 250 on the Tesla site, you can order it right with your car, and you can plug your brand new Tesla into the 110 outlet in your garage that you use to plug in a shop light. And so that's how you get started in the Tesla world, if you're interested. And you can say goodbye to gas stations, and you can drive the safest car in the world.
The Importance of Smart Summon
Very nicely put. I do see we got Omar jumping up as you were talking. Omar, we're talking about your aspects that you put up for us. So, nicely. Curious your thoughts on actual smart summon or actually smart summon? I got. I need you to talk here, Omar. It's a little awkward otherwise after what I just said here. Clear the air. All right. He's leaving me in alert. Leave me hanging real quick. Ryan, you talked about a SS and, you know, your grandparents reaction and stuff like that. What's different about what we just saw? Release versus the summon abilities? Previously? Well, I'm jealous because I haven't been able to try the actually smart summon yet on my own vehicle.
Comparing Previous Summon Abilities
But it appears that it's a little tighter and quicker and more responsive, willing to change between the drive and reverse of modes quicker. So I'm looking forward to trying it, because previously, when I've used smart summon, not the actually smart summon, it's responded to what I'm asking it to do, but it will be extremely slow. It would move forward, and then if it's got to turn around, it would take a few seconds to turn backwards in reverse, and then maybe another few seconds to go forward. Whenever it's moving towards me or going to the destination that I set, it would be. It would be really slow. And I think a lot of that is probably due to just safety concerns, just wanting to make sure that the vehicle is not going to hit anybody and it's not going to spook anybody by scaring them and coming too fast.
Advancements in Tesla Technology
So I think now, as they build confidence in the system. Tesla's more willing to have it go faster, and it's being trained on data that's more widespread and more varied. It's just a totally, I believe it's just a totally different architecture. The way that they've built it is completely from scratch, different from the old version. So yeah, I wish I've gotten to try it, but I haven't yet. So I'm looking forward to trying it. Simon, we've talked about a bunch of stuff kind of beyond the maybe Cortes, the model. So there's robots, there's summoning abilities, there's all this other stuff. How do you factor these things into a pricing model?
Pricing Models and Future Insights
The easy answer is I don't. For me, those are cool projects. But when I'm doing a DCF, I tend to build from the ground up. I like to start conservative and then build up as we get more optimistic information. Energy is a perfect example. Had very conservative estimates for the energy business. Tesla is outperforming the expectations that I had and actually that most of the street had for its energy business. So that increases the value. But I like to have a price target. Start at the bottom. Things like Optimus, things like the other, the bigger projects, I don't have those incorporated yet. The same thing with a Tesla semi, which could be potentially a project that really gets a lot of traction, pun intended.
Evolving Investment Strategies
But I haven't put in there yet purposely. And then I kind of add over time, short answer to your question there. Okay, so as they become more realistic over time, what's the process for adding them in? Do you need to start seeing revenue and other items first? Yeah, they've got some. Like the semi is a pilot program they've tried with a couple. I think Pepsi was one of them that they were working with. Theres these programs out there, but until you start getting revenues from it or you start seeing some capex for logistics and other things, it doesnt hit my radar as an investor. I like projects that people are talking about and theyre excited about, but until we actually see evidence of it, Elon, of all people we know, likes to get excited about things, but he cant do a lot of times everything that he says that he wants to do.
Recapping Future Trends and Revenue
I need to see some traction before I add something like that in. I will say right now that for the model that I have outside of the car business, which we talked all about the car business today, but I do have expectations of the robotaxi network and then also of the full self driving subscription revenues picking up pretty aggressively in the next couple of years. And that's beyond just the production numbers and how many cars they sell. More of a recurring revenue business for them. Got it. That's understood. Okay. No, that makes sense to me.
Community Organization and Local Engagement
Landon, how are you going about organizing some of this stuff with all these other Tesla owners? Are you doing it through communities that you're part of? It sounds like. And then is nothing able to speak at the moment? I just had a little technical difficulty. But if you'd like to ask the question again or move on, please. Thanks. Yeah, no, all good. I was just curious because you're organizing these big groups of Tesla owners coming together. I was wondering how you're going about doing that. Is that through communities or other stuff that people can be a part of?
Strategies for Community Engagement
Yes, we do have some communities. It is a little bit of a struggle, if I'm candida, because of our geography. You know, we don't have a million people in my area, so we use X and we are pushing x hard. And our most active users are no doubt, absolutely here on X. And, you know, the legacy backbone programs have changed over time. I've been with Tesla, you know, for a while, and Tesla even started up their own little social networking on the Tesla website there for a minute. Didn't really go very far. And now we're using X. So there's some Facebook folks that, you know, they like their old time setup that they send their photos to their grandma on. But yeah, we use X to promote and we're in our local communities.
Local Tesla Engagement Activities
So what I do Here is I travel to the superchargers in my area. There used to be one within 150 miles, and now we've got five. And so I go to those, and we have little cleanup events, and we always run into people. And then we go to the main street to the coffee place, and we talk Tesla, and wear our shirts and we show people our cars. And, you know, we pretend like we're the muscle car show guys from 25 years ago. And we love talking about our teslas. And so we're using word of mouth and local community social networking. And that's how we get people together. And people are really curious because it's like driving a cybertruck around.
Curiosity about Tesla Vehicles
You know, you're going to have people that come up to you and take pictures and they're like, well, who makes that? Is that from the future? What's going on here? And it's the same to a little bit lesser extent with the other Teslas. So people have some information. This is, this is very clear. There's nobody out there that comes up and has never heard of an electric car. Right. Most people have even heard of Teslas. And so you tell them why it's good for you, and they get interested and they use the new referral program. A lot of us have that pinned in our profile. We only have ten coupons, but people can get an easy start by getting, using a referral code to get a discount on Teslas and get them started using the supercharger network.
Grassroots Movement
Kind of a grassroots movement, if you will. Yeah. SIMON.
Question for Panelists
Wolf, if you don't mind, I actually have a question or two questions for the other panelists and the speakers on the spaces here. The first question was, does anyone know if the 1.99% financing that Tesla has extended as a promotional rate, if that's continuing going forward, or if they're going to raise that to a higher rate? Does anyone know that?
Financing Insights
I don't think we could say that we know it because we don't work for Tesla. But what they've stated, and there have been some minor tweaks to that to where it's been so popular of a program. I took advantage of it myself because of the current high interest rate market. And so, yes, we know that it is through the end of September, and they have changed. Some of the people that selected longer terms, like 72 and 84, they've bumped up those rates very slightly.
Tesla's Promotional Financing
But I think that we'll continue to see Tesla offer this kind of thing because we've seen them do it around the world. And I think that we're seeing, while people were clamoring for some kind of Super Bowl ad, this type of low subvented interest rate has been really popular with Tesla customers. Yeah, I think so, too. It's a lot lower financing rate than a lot of competitors, which is no doubt good for them.
Model Two Manufacturing Queries
And then the other question I had. This might be one for you, Landon or Ryan or Penny is the model two? I'd love to hear if there's other thoughts, if this is going to happen in 2026, if they're going to manufacture it in Austin here in the US, or if they're actually going to kind of push that internationally or for other markets as aggressively as they are in the US. I'd love to hear any thoughts on that one, too.
Timeline for New Models
Well, they said new cars first half of 2025, didn't they? New models. So I suspect that they're probably talking about that. And because I expect that model to be a lower cost, more accessible model. It only makes sense to me that they would eventually market it everywhere. Right.
Manufacturing Expectations
I believe that they'll probably manufacture it in Austin to begin with, and I don't know how much exporting we're going to do, but I doubt it will take long before they're manufacturing it at all of their different factories. And I'll bet that it takes the world by storm, probably in 2026, would be my guess, if they're, you know, guessing that it gets released early 2025.
Building Process Innovations
Penny, I just want to agree with you. You nailed the points there. It's great to be talking with you again, by the way. And so I do think Austin Elon has said, Austin, we're looking at this unboxed process, which is a different way of building automobiles from the Henry Ford assembly line to where the car rolls by you, and you put on a screw on that car with the unbox process. You build the vehicle in quarters, basically, and you pull everything together at the end so you can have a lot more people or humanoid robots or industrial robots building at the same time around one quarter of the vehicle.
Tesla's New Vehicle Design
So we've seen a little bit of a change to where I got a rail against that phrase you use for the new car. We'll call it the compact car. Tesla or whatever else is coming out new. So I think Elon has indicated that they're going to take components from the current model three and current Model Y and use those to make smaller type versions of those two wildly successful products. And they can do that. They can bring down the cost.
Market-Specific Vehicle Variants
We're expecting those vehicles to be smaller size. And like Benny was getting at, we heard five years ago in the Tesla master plan that they wanted to have slightly different products for different markets. This just makes sense because the people driving automobiles in congested city traffic in Europe have very different needs than people driving an electric vehicle in Colorado or Wyoming or California, United States. So, yes, Gigafactory in Austin and starting production in early 2025 or sooner.
Investment Insights for Gigafactory
And then, of course, those are all subject to change. And there has been some noise from some outlets that, okay, push into 2026. But I don't think that's an official move. If you've got more information on that, Simon, we'd love it. No, that's awesome, Landon. Thank you for the operational perspective on it. Elon, I've heard him say before that he thought the gigafactory Austin was going to cost $10 billion at full capacity. By my numbers, he's spent somewhere between four and 5 billion on it so far in the models that I've put together for the model too.
Significant Capital Expenditures
I think that between 2025 and 2028, Tesla's going to spend $30 billion on Gigafactory Austin for the model two. And I agree with you, I've got it modeled out that they're going to do all the production there, at least initially, but I think it's going to cost a ton of money, I think. Well, keeping in mind that the location in Texas, which is the second largest state geographically in the US, you can think of the factory as the same thing.
Gigafactory Expansion Opportunities
They've got one gigafactory there and there's room for four. You see, you don't have to go to Mexico or Great Britain or wherever else to build the next factory. Those will come as needed. But to have all of the room in Texas and they are building out that facility, they're adding Tesla AIH to the complex and they're digging boring tunnels under the freeway and they're preparing to move these vehicles around the complex autonomously.
Future of Charging and Automation
Do you think that Elon and Eshok would release actually smart summon to us if they couldn't already take a Model Y out of the factory and take the drivers out that we saw driving them out of the factory several months ago in the factory? And they're going to make those autonomous and so they're going to go right to their parking space, right onto the rail car, right onto the transports. Giga Austin is amazing with massive room for expansion.
Market Perspectives and Trading Insights
Hey, real quick with. I know we have a few minutes left. I saw the real blonde broker jumped up on stage. I know she had some thoughts that she mentioned she wanted to share on TESLA. Let me throw the mic over to you real quick, see if you want to get a few of those in. Thanks, Wolf. Yeah, I am more of a TA type of person and pattern trader. And so Tesla looked so beautiful this morning.
Trading Strategy and Predictions
Took some calls up to that 718.3 this morning following my harmonic on that. And then we're kind of getting that dip that I mentioned that we could, that kind of sets up a little handle on it. I think once the market sees some strength, then we'll see Tesla run again. Those were great numbers overnight. So much in the works. The robo taxi event coming up. Just a lot of.
Earnings Forecast and Price Levels
And you know, then we have earnings which, you know, I'm hoping to see some turnaround there. But I'm just really looking forward to how TESLA is trading. My key levels are still to get over that. 725 or not 725. Sorry, I. 225 to 229. That's what it needs to get over to really start to run.
Tesla's Market Performance
So once we kind of can get over those levels, then I'm looking forward to a bigger and stronger run on TESLA. But I like that it's holding this 214 215 area and consolidating and looking strong on a day where a lot of tickers are looking pretty weak. But that's my real key level on Tesla, is to start seeing that, get over that 225 and then 229.
User Experience with Tesla
So from a level to level trading, that's what I'm watching for. I appreciate you joining up and sharing that. It's always good to get the insights on both the fundamentals of the stock, but also some of the ways that people are trading it. Any other general thoughts on Tesla? Have you driven Teslas? Any pieces around that for yourself right now?
Individual Experiences with Driving Tesla
I have driven Teslas, yeah. No, I've driven them. I owned one. I sold it, though. I prefer, I guess, more the gas cars, but I like the Teslas. I just never loved the big giant screen and just kind of the interior of the Tesla, but great car, good company, good customer service. Had a good experience with it. Just wasn't my favorite car. So that's my personal experience with it. How about you, Wolf?
Personal Ownership and Charging Challenges
I have driven Teslas before. I really enjoyed it, but I've really never had to own a car for extended periods of time. I've rented cars. I've used plenty of other people's cars. I've lived with people that have cars, so I've never had to, like, go out and purchase a car. I wanted to get a Tesla, but I am moving to Puerto Rico in two months and less than a week, and it is very difficult there unless you have a house charger, because it's just not set up with charging stations like the rest of the US is.
Charging Infrastructure Limitations
And so with that being said, I still have to figure out how I'm going to make that work from a car perspective and what's going to be best there. But hopefully, they just keep bringing some things down there. That'd be great. Yeah. The other problem here, too, is I'm in the west, and so you get, like, a lot of areas where there aren't chargers.
Regional Charging Availability
So similar thing, you know, like California is really set up for it, but not more of kind of the western states. And sometimes that was a difficulty in charging and going to places that were more off the grid and not convenient to have chargers. Agreed. What Landon said about the guys going around with their mobile charger up in Alaska right now, right?
Charging Methods in Practice
I use my mobile charger. It's just like the regular. Like Landon said, I plug it into the 110 outlet in my garage. Wolf. I use that for 99% of my charging, even when I drive probably further than the size of the island you'll be on. I think you'd be fine that way. I'm telling you, it's worth it.
Final Thoughts and Accessibility
Switch. Love it. All right, last comment here to Landon for top of the hour. Do each their own. We don't all have to drive the same vehicle, the same model. You know, we can have a little bit, but don't endanger your family. I've had some. Some major accidents in my local Tesla community here in the west, and these are elderly people that were struck by a great big, you know, dodge truck kind of accidents, and they get out and walk away, and this is not the way.
Safety and Accidents
All vehicles that are being sold right now are built, and that's important, and I just have to push back. I've been driving around the west part of the United States for seven years in Teslas now. And like I said, there used to be one supercharger about every 200 miles, and that was a little bit of a stretch. That was a little difficult in the early teens. This was tough.
Evolution of Charging Networks
People would have to stop at hotels and charge overnight. But now there's a supercharger in my state of Colorado every 75 miles, and there's local charging everywhere. And, of course, 99% of people charge their electric vehicles at home, so the west is up and running for electric vehicles and long distance travel on the supercharger network.
Traveling with Electric Vehicles
You're probably just more patient than me, Landon. Just more patient. Well, I'm not sure what you mean by that, but we don't need to. Beat to wait for the charging. You know, when you're on the road. And you're trying nine minutes, you know, going different places? Nine minutes.
Charging Timing and Convenience
I drive 300 miles to Denver twice a month, and my supercharging stop is one charge for nine minutes, and I have to go to the bathroom and get some coffee. Yeah, well, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, not quite as convenient, but you have to take the mobile chargers with you. Awesome.
Community Engagement
Y'all, I got a jump here. But this was super fun, always talking Tesla, and, you know, it's just nice on a day like today, especially where the market's all going down. I mean, QQ's down over two and a half, almost two and a half percent. And Tesla is the only green in the large cap tech just showing that it is holding up here, up 0.24.25%.
Meeting Closing Remarks
So really nice stuff there. Thank you to everyone who tuned in. Hopefully, you got some good updates on smart summon and other things that are happening. We do this every week on Tuesdays at 12:00 p.m. eastern. We'll be back next week, same time, same place. Looking forward to seeing everyone there.
Farewell and Future Sessions
Have a great afternoon, everybody.
