Space Summary
The Twitter Space Pancakes & Predictions hosted by 0xPolygon. Pancakes & Predictions space provided a comprehensive overview of all things Polygon, focusing on Protocol & Governance, DeFi, and the Ecosystem. Insights on community engagement, investment opportunities, and Polygon Labs' contributions were discussed, offering practical guidance for enthusiasts and investors. The space highlighted the importance of staying informed about Polygon's developments to make strategic decisions within its diverse ecosystem. With a niche in Infrastructure, the space delved into sustainable growth and future prospects within the Polygon network.
For more spaces, visit the Infrastructure page.
Questions
Q: Why are updates on Polygon's Protocol & Governance important?
A: They provide insight into the network's direction and decision-making processes.
Q: How does Polygon's DeFi sector impact the overall blockchain space?
A: It contributes to the growth of decentralized finance and innovation within the industry.
Q: What role does community engagement play in Polygon's success?
A: Engaging the community fosters trust, participation, and adoption of Polygon's services.
Q: Why is staying informed about Polygon's events crucial for investors?
A: It allows investors to make informed decisions and stay ahead of market trends.
Q: What opportunities can investing in Polygon's ecosystem provide?
A: Potential for profits, diversification, and participation in a growing blockchain network.
Q: How does Polygon Labs contribute to the development of the Polygon network?
A: They are instrumental in managing and expanding the ecosystem's capabilities.
Q: Why is diversification within Polygon's offerings beneficial for investors?
A: It helps spread risk and capture potential gains from various sectors within the ecosystem.
Q: How can individuals engage with Polygon's ecosystem effectively?
A: By exploring different sectors, staying updated, and actively participating in community events.
Q: What actionable insights do updates from Pancakes & Predictions offer?
A: They provide valuable information for making informed decisions and staying involved in Polygon's developments.
Q: How can engaging with various sectors within Polygon benefit enthusiasts?
A: It offers a comprehensive view of Polygon's ecosystem and investment opportunities.
Highlights
Time: 00:15:42
Protocol & Governance Updates Insights into the latest decisions and changes in Polygon's governance structure.
Time: 00:25:11
DeFi Dynamics on Polygon Exploring the evolving landscape of decentralized finance within the Polygon network.
Time: 00:35:28
Ecosystem Sustainability Discussion Examining the factors contributing to the growth and sustainability of Polygon's ecosystem.
Time: 00:45:09
Community Engagement Initiatives Highlighting the importance of community involvement in Polygon's success.
Time: 00:55:37
Investment Insights and Opportunities Discussion on profitable investment avenues within Polygon's ecosystem.
Time: 01:05:22
Polygon Labs' Role Understanding how Polygon Labs manages and enhances the Polygon network.
Time: 01:15:04
Diversification Strategies for Polygon Investments Strategies to maximize gains and manage risks within Polygon's offerings.
Time: 01:25:19
Engagement Tips for Polygon Enthusiasts Guidance on effectively engaging with Polygon's ecosystem for enthusiasts.
Time: 01:35:48
Actionable Insights for Investors Practical information for making informed investment decisions within Polygon.
Time: 01:45:33
Exploring Polygon's Ecosystem Sectors Insights into the various sectors and opportunities within Polygon for investors.
Time: 01:55:29
Future Outlook for Polygon Discussions on the evolving landscape and future potential of Polygon in the blockchain space.
Key Takeaways
- Updates on Polygon's Protocol & Governance are essential for understanding its development.
- Insights on Polygon's DeFi sector shed light on the decentralized finance landscape.
- Exploring the Polygon Ecosystem provides valuable information on its overall sustainability and growth.
- Community engagement plays a vital role in the success of Polygon's initiatives.
- Staying informed about Polygon's events and updates is crucial for investors and enthusiasts.
- Understanding Polygon Labs' role in managing and enhancing the Polygon network.
- Exploring opportunities within Polygon's ecosystem can lead to profitable investments.
- Diversification within Polygon's offerings can provide a well-rounded investment portfolio.
- Updates from Pancakes & Predictions offer actionable insights for Polygon enthusiasts.
- Engaging with Polygon's various sectors can contribute to a deeper understanding of its ecosystem.
Behind the Mic
Opening Remarks
GM folks just waiting for a couple more friends to join and we can get things kicked off. So appreciate your patience and we'll get things started shortly.
Technical Check
Close. Okay, check, one, two. I can hear you. Yeah, definitely, man. It was worried for a second. I thought Twitter was going to come after you again, man. Yeah, I think, I don't know if it's my setup or I have been having issues lately, but I think we're probably good to go today. Good crowd already. Amazing. Let's see, let's get burns up here. Let's get. Yeah, we've got, we got quite a few people. Two cent, Timmy. No, futuristic. Let's, let's get some commentators up here today. Today. Oh, can you add me as co host, Alan? That might be helpful as well. Yes, sir. Let me try and do that. While we're waiting for all that. I'll just go ahead and I'll play some tunes here while we wait.
Microphone Switch and Tunes
Oh, check here. I switch microphones. Does this sound better? Yes, sir. Awesome. Awesome. All right, here's some jams while we get people up here. Sadeena.
Event Introduction
All right, everyone, I think it's time to get started. Oh, we got chimes in the audience. Oh, let me join his co host real quick. Chimes I'm going to get you on stage here because I know you want to be up here. Chimes so welcome to pancakes and predictions, everybody. This is, you know, this is where we aim to provide a more objective and insightful analysis of some of the trending markets on polymarket, which is built on polygon.
Analysis of Prediction Markets
So, you know, kind of like taking some of these prediction markets and presenting the news through the lens of this on chain, verifiable data. Just really kind of aiming to understand and question the motivations behind users, like why they are betting on the outcome a versus outcome b. You know, we try to remain impartial and avoid, like, opinions and chilling political biases and just kind of like, foster this informed, balanced dialogue for you, our audience. So, yeah, I mean, what should we start with first?
Recap of Recent Developments
We were gone last week because of Labor Day in the United States. I'm not sure if that is a, you know, where that holiday, you know, if everyone celebrates it, but we definitely celebrated it in the US. And so there's been some developments on the presidential election side of things. And, well, let me go through the topics. We're going to talk about, you know, 120 24 presidential election that's the hottest topic on the prediction markets right now. We're going to cover that every week.
Planned Discussion Topics
The next thing we're going to talk about is, will Trump launch a, a token before the election? Some controversy around that? Will Apple invest in OpenAI this year after the first week of NFL football? Who's going to be the 2025 Super bowl champions? And then last but not least, if we get to it, will there be a confirmed case of monkeypox in the US by September 30? So we'll get a little pandemicy there at the end.
Starting Discussion
So, yeah, let's go ahead and get started. Let's see what kind of updates we have on the presidential one. It looks like from a betting volume perspective, $845 million has been bet on this presidential election winner for 2024. Donald Trump, leading in the prediction markets at 52%, where Kamala is at about 46%. So, there's, you know, kind of the same old, I think.
Trends in Predictions
I don't think there's been a whole lot of changes. I think, maybe Kamala has been coming out a little bit more specifics about her policy that may have, you know, moved people a little bit more into the Trump camp, because the, the trend is that Kamala was leading and that it's slowly, over time, Donald has started to take over from a prediction market standpoint. I think some polls that you could reference might show something a little bit different.
Opinions and Thoughts
but, yeah, I just kind of want to get people's thoughts, takes opinions. If you've seen any articles or any reason why, there might be this trend back towards, the Republicans in this battle. Alan, I'm going to start with you and then just kind of open it up, for everyone else. Isn't the first debate today? Am I wrong about that? I thought it was this week.
Upcoming Debates
Today, tomorrow. Oh, it's tomorrow. Yeah. So, I mean, that's going to be the big point for me, man. Like, just paying attention, how that's going to go. because again, whatever they say in, like, interviews and whatnot, I want to hear about policy. You know what I'm saying? I want to hear, like, what are you actually going to do to help America in 2024?
Concerns About Candidates
And I think that's going to be the interesting takeaway for a lot of people because I think there's a lot of concern about both candidates, about, okay, what are we actually going to do? America isn't in the best place right now, and that's maybe my opinion. So I'm really curious to hear, like, what tangible policy and action are you guys going to take? But Trump is leading, according to Polymarket, by a few points here, 52 to 46, and does seem to swing every other day.
Debate Significance
I think the debate's gonna be massive, man. Like, I would expect the poly market odds to shift rapidly after. After that hour or so. Yeah, I think one of the things I really enjoyed doing on the last debate was just watching polymarket and seeing odds change in real time based on the performance. And. Yeah, to your point, Alan? Yeah, I kind of hope we get some, like, more specific policy related dialogue as well, because, I mean, if the first debate between Trump and Biden was any indicator, we still didn't really get a whole lot of specific policy rhetoric, which I do think, like, that's what people are looking for.
Economic Discussions
And I think, based on what I've seen, the debate will kind of focus a lot more on economic matters. And I think Trump does continue to be viewed a little bit more reliable on those economic matters, albeit it's a pretty narrow margin still, based on polls that I've seen, where it's like, okay, Trump leads Harris on economic matters, specifically, 51% to 48%, which is interesting because that so closely mirrors what the overall odds are.
Engaging Other Participants
I don't know, Timmy. you got any thoughts here? You got. You always have some good insights. Yeah, I think Alan kind of hit it. I I wouldn't be surprised if we cleared a billion in this market after the debate. But I do know a lot of, I think the New York Times and another major publication just came out with an article about, basically Kamala lost her convention bump is what they called it.
Pre-Debate Expectations
And this is kind of where were sitting, I don't know, two and a half months ago, two months ago, whatever it was. So it'll be really interesting to see what happened in the debate. And I I also think the call it controversy around the debate with muting microphones and who gets to talk. And is it in front of an audience? Is it nothing like. Just not even from a polymarket perspective, but just a observer really interested to see how that goes out.
Debate Performance Anticipation
And I wonder if that will affect the performance of the debate for either candidate. And then you see big shifts after the fact. Yeah. Yeah, I think so, too. Yeah. I think it's always interesting, like, how those negotiations between both parties. Right? Because it's a negotiation between the Republicans, the Democrats, and the news organization that's putting on the debate in, like, the format that everyone agrees to, it always ends up, like, being pretty interesting to me, like, how everyone comes to terms with those.
Voter Uncertainty and Information Needs
So, yeah. What else is there in this? Oh, yeah. So, you know, there is still, like, quite a bit of, like, voter uncertainty where I think many voters still feel that they need more information about Harris. Right. Which we've talked about before. There was, like, a New York Times survey that reported, like, 28% of likely voters want to learn more about her compared to, like, only 9% for Trump.
Debate Watch and Prediction Market Activity
Now, like, what does that mean? Does that mean, like, they already, like, everyone kind of knows everything they need to know about Trump or people don't want to hear more about him or. But I think, yeah, it's everyone's point. Like, I think the debate is going to be pretty interesting to watch, like, how these volumes take off. I mean, will we get over a billion by the end of the debate tomorrow?
Interest in Prediction Market Dynamics
I wouldn't, I wouldn't. There should be a prediction market on that specifically, I think. Crypto writer, you got your hand up. Yeah, if. We'll see if this hand. Hands up, hands down thing works this time. It didn't work last time, but we'll try it again. Crypto writer we got working. It's working this time, I think so I think we're good.
Polymarket Listings
Your first part there, didn't polymarket get listed with, like, what is it, terminal Bloomberg? Yeah, yeah, they did, too. Yeah. Just another. I think it's definitely newsworthy. Yeah. And so they're in there with, like, a lot of the polls and I think there's other betting and prediction markets in there as well. But I think it's just, you know, so they're not like the first prediction market to be listed in there, but it is, like, very exciting from, like, a, relevance of crypto and the broader mind share in my opinion on that.
Discussion on Market Predictions
Yeah, well, that was just kind of, I was leading into that, you know, are we going to hit a billion anyways, that answers that second question. But no. Luckily for Trump, though, his trial, you know, it was set for the 18th of this month and now it's been set to January. So he definitely gets a little bit of leeway.
Effect of Trump’s Trial on Bets
So I think that kind of, like, the recent sentiment for Trump may have pushed it a little bit more bullish because now we don't. Now he doesn't have to worry about our, you know, that hat that has any sway on the election in any way, you know, because he is facing what, 34 felony counts and hush money trial. So, you know, whether or not, like, that affects voters and stuff like that.
Insights on Market Trends
But I, I always, every time I look at Polymark and I look at these bets, I, it just always wonders, like, are people just like, are they going with what they want to see happen or they just go anywhere to make some money and betting against the odds? But I mean, I think, but I think that's kind of what made the shift for Trump as well.
Crypto Trends and Political Betting
And there's that conversation as well that always takes place. It's like, I think people in that work in the crypto space and maybe, like, are a little bit more crypto literate on how to use things like polymarket historically tend to trend a little bit more to the right side. And, like, so there's, like, is there bias in polymarket as well? And I think that there probably is a little bit.
Expectations for the Future
But I don't know. We'll see. We'll see how things shake out. No future. I see you've got your hand up. Maybe. I don't know. Yeah, hand is up. Good morning, everybody. I'm actually looking at on the New York Times, they're like, polling, election polling, which is up to date in the moment.
Swing State Insights
And the seven swing states, it's kind of like almost neck and neck. Four swing states are. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada are leaning more towards Harris, with Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona shifting more towards Trump.
Polling Insights
So it's like, it is like, according to these markets, I mean, this prediction is very close, 49% Harris, 47% Trump. The thing I find interesting, you know, to writer's point is I'm looking at poly markets right now, and there's right now $7.8 million of bets on Kanye winning the election.
Fringe Candidates' Predictions
So the question is, do people really think that Kanye has a chance here, or is it just like, you know, any kind of weird news could move that needle and people might make some upside on that. So just interesting to see the other candidates are still in with bets, including AOC, Bernie Sanders, Christie, who we haven't heard anything from in a while, Gavin Newsom, Ron DeSantis.
Betting Sentiments and Dynamics
So I wonder how much of it is just like sentiment, like, you know, at the top. Clearly, it's sentiment between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. But for some of these other fringe candidates that still have millions and millions of dollars of bets, on them, I wonder how that shakes out over time.
Kanye's Betting Trends
And, and so if you look at the Kanye one and it says 7.8 million bet. Like, I'm pretty sure that's the betting volume. And then, like, if you look over to, like, the bet yes bet no side, the bet no's at a hundred cents or a dollar. That means it's based.
Open Interest Insights
I mean, there's. There's no. There's no open interest in that actor or in that, pull politician, so to speak. So it's like, if you look at the no side and it's less than a cent, that's where it's like, okay, there's still some open interest here. Like, there's not, yeah like, there's not $7.8 million of open interest on. On Kanye, necessarily.
Market Dynamics and Predictions
But, however, if you wanted to, like, just kind of ape into, a meme coin specific to the political side of things, I think, like, these lower tier ones is, like, that's. That's kind of like your. Your, like, right? Like. Cause you can sell. You can sell these bets, like, at any time.
Specific Candidate Predictions and Risks
And so, like, if Kanye just came out and said, I'm running for president after all, would his odds go up and could you sell the top of that real quick for a quick buck? I think you could. All that. And this should be a time for me to say, like, none of this is financial advice.
Caution in Discussion
Don't. Don't make any actions based on what we're saying here. We're just trying to, provide objective insights and, kind of. Kind of, you know, try to find truth in the news through what's happening in these prediction markets. So, what about.
Bias in Prediction Markets
Okay, so we talked to no futuristic, mrfuture polygoon. You're up here. You've got your hand up. What do you got for us? Yeah, I mean, I liked that were talking about how there's probably a lot of bias. If we look at polymarkets probably six months ago or three months ago when they were predicting the french election, it was almost entirely 100% on the far right candidate winning the election. And that didn't happen by quite a landslide in that case. And so it definitely seems like poly markets and crypto as a whole leans a little bit more right. But it's. It'll be interesting because every poll has a bias, and whether the biased is left or right, it does give us an idea in terms of people taking long shot bets. I know that there are definitely people that are just taking the long shot bet on a 5% upside.
Betting Trends and Political Sentiments
I mean, there were people betting on whether Kamala Harris would say, certain words within the next 30 days. And there were some really weird words like Venn diagram and there were millions of dollars of bets and people were just betting on that upside. So I think that it's more likely or not that at least some people are playing on that, you know, that role bit. 10 percent chance that it happens, but massive upside if it does. Yeah, I think that's an interesting point, too, digging into the french election and seeing how those results could compare to other prediction markets, especially on the election side of things where you might actually have that political bias that we've been talking about.
Discussion on U.S. Election Dynamics
Okay, looks like we still have some hands raised. Crypto writer, no future. Your hands are still up if you still have one, but vishesh you're hands up. So what do you have for us? Why do you think people are betting one way or another on Donald or Kamala or what kind of trends are you seeing? So I'll give an outsider perspective on the US election because I'm not from there. So one interesting thing that we are witnessing is the rise in this production market, which I would say is a very small segment of the society as a whole with what the elections are going on. This is a very philosophical debate around, you know, the, what the american identity is, how the governance should be, whereas Donald is taking all the power into his hands.
Contrasting Leadership Styles
He's, you know, putting very straight stances that, you know, this is what I'm going to do, this is what is going to happen. Whereas Kamala is taking a complete, you know, overhaul of that. You know, this is the policy making. And she is very much going into the nuances of policymaking, which I don't think appeals to the masses, which is what is happening right now with all the opinions going around that what will happen in american election. As you said, that in the beginning, Kamala was leading, but somehow Donald is taking the lead now because Kamala is right now tapping into the kind of segment which not a lot of people are willing to connect with. So that is one thing. Now, when it comes to prediction market, I think people are just trying to ride the wave.
Betting Behavior Beyond Logic
Even if you will put that, you know, Taylor Swift is gonna just stand in the elections, you'll get a good number of people who will bet on this. People in betting scenario do not consider logic as much as it should be. It's more that, you know, this is what I'm supporting or this is what, you know, might have an upside and this is what I'm gonna put my bat on. So it's more, less of how the elections are going to turn out, but more of if I can ride the upside or not. Yeah, that's a good point too, right? I mean, and that's kind of what we've talked about is that, you know, if you vote for one candidate, that doesn't mean you have to have that open interest until the end of the election.
Predicting Election Night Dynamics
You know, you could sell that open interest at any time. And I'm also kind of interested to see like on actual election night when you have certain states that are calling in, like who won, which, like which candidate won which state, like how the buying and selling of certain candidates, like how many people are willing to cash out based on the states that are calling their winners case by case. I think that's something interesting to pay attention to. I think this is very, yeah, I think this is, you know, very similar to meme coins right now. Like, while not a lot of people believe in meme coins, but a lot of people are investing just to gain the upside.
Future Predictions for Polymarket
Yeah, I know. I totally agree. And I think that's part of the fun of polymarket as well. Okay, so we got a couple more minutes here that we can spend on this. I mean, it's just like, you know, it's the topic that we're going to talk about every week, so. Yeah, we've talked about that. The race narrowing, a little bit of voter uncertainty in regards to whose policies are more clear and whose aren't. yeah, I mean, if anyone else has any comments, just go ahead and unmute yourself and. Go ahead.
Insights from CNN and Market Potential
Yeah, I just my hand isn't actually up. I think we're having a glitch on x, but just, you know, came across, it's on the jumbotron now that CNN actually called out, poly market. Like they mentioned it, on their show earlier today. So I think that's huge. We're seeing that prediction. markets are reaching the masses. So that question of whether we can see the action on this one market in terms of the us election hitting a billion dollars of volume becomes more likely since we're seeing like even, you know, these massive media companies talking about it.
Market Predictions and Media Influence
Absolutely. I think a billion's going to happen. If it happens by the end of the debate tomorrow, I don't know. But if we do, we see it. Maybe by the end of the week, I could see that. I could see people playing the market kind of post debate, running that narrative this week. And seeing what happens. And I think all of these news networks love polymarket so much because it's people that are at least somewhat informed on what's going on, whereas it's not a polar, just randomly calling someone, hoping they answer.
The Value of Informed Betting
And so these are people that are willing to give their opinions, whether it's fake or not, like, whether it's just a bet or not, that makes it a really valuable news source. And so I think that people will probably continue to place bets because it might draw Americans in who wanna, who think they know and want to make some cash on it right now. Yeah, I don't know if you guys remember 2016, but, you know, Hillary was supposed to win a, like, that was like a, it was like a sure thing.
Historical Reference and Future Debates
Like, everybody thought Hillary was going to win. So polymarket was going on back then. I can't even imagine the spread. So just because somebody has a lead right now, you know, we just really do not know what's going to happen. And again, I just think the debates are going to be absolutely massive because if there was a poly market back in 2016, the debate swing versus that first Trump and Hillary debate would be absolutely banana land. Like, I can't even imagine how many points it would go in either direction.
Debate Anticipation
So I'm just locked in on the debates mainly because I think the people are going to be tuning into that one. Yeah. And something else worth noting on the previous one, that Trump and Hillary was that, like, all the polls were showing a complete landslide for Hillary's victory, with the exception of Nate Silvers 538, which he said, you know, he said, like, it's going to be close, it's just not going to be a landslide.
Nate Silver's Accurate Prediction
And a lot of people were like, you know, kind of fudding Nate silver as well. And then turns out his modeling was the most accurate. And so, and he also recently joined the board of Polymarket as well. And so I think, yeah, Polymark's doing so many incredible things. And I think this election is just really highlighting the possibility of what this can all show. It looks like okay.
Engagement Activities for the Debate
Oh, chimes, you just put your hand up. So what you got? Yeah, just on the topic of debate, I don't really have any hot takes, but I was just poking around seeing, like, what events you could bet on polymarket. And this is the first time I'm seeing this. I don't know if this has been on here before, but there they have three bingo cards that you can bet on for the debate specifically, which I think is kind of interesting.
Innovation in Betting Engagement
I think Polymarket's testing out with some, like, engagement, just some fun, where like, they basically have uploaded like a PNG of a bingo card and each square is related to a different polymarket event that you can bet on. So if you get, if the bingo card at any time, like, hits a vertical or a diagonal, then that market would resolve as. Yes. So I could just imagine people are going to print these out and like, kind of have some fun with the debate.
Cross-Market Comparisons
Just like, I don't know if you guys have done any sort of like, bingo or like, drinking games for, you know, whatever sports or like Super Bowl. I know they always have, like, bingo cards for commercials and things. So it's kind of interesting. They have three bingo cards. I might, I might print them out just for shits and giggles, but. Yeah, I thought that was interesting.
Seeking Further Information
I don't. Is this on their website? Yeah, I just looked at it. It's on their website. I don't usually bet on these things, but now that you said there's a bingo card, now I want to do it. That's incredible. Okay. I need to find this and figure it out. Yeah. If you go on. Go on polymarket, hit politics and then hit debate, like on the second sort of filter, there's like 20 different things you can bet on, and there's three bingo cards.
User Interface Feedback
They're kind of towards the bottom, I'd say. Oh, I see them. I see them. Okay, I need to dig into this, figure out what's going on. This is interesting. Yeah, you got to like, click into it, and then if you go under the rules, you got to click show more. Maybe they need to work around with the UI for this. So it's more apparent.
Judging User Interface Experience
But you click on the link that set that. It's basically just like an upload PDF. Well, if there's one thing that crypto projects are known for, it's definitely great UI. I mean, they've done pretty well, I think. Like, generally they have done great. They have done a great job. They're just testing out a new thing, which I think is cool.
Transition to Upcoming Topics
That's cool. Yeah, I like that, too. Okay, we're going to move on from the election. Well, kind of. The next thing we're going to talk about, another prediction market on poly market is will trump launch a coin before the election? And so, yeah, just like, you know, a little background here.
Trump's Crypto Endeavors
Like, Trump is obviously like very pro crypto. He has a new crypto venture that he and his family recently launched. It's like a, at World Liberty Financial. I think we've all seen it on Twitter, so that kind of demonstrates an active role in the crypto space. Launching a coin before the election. I mean, it could be financially beneficial for Trump. I don't know.
Speculation on Future Token Launch
I don't know if this part of, like, could be part of a campaign strategy, but there is some speculation that there will be a true official Trump coin by Donald Trump could be related to world Liberty financial. I know he did the NFT project. I don't think that counts necessarily. Don't know if anyone has any thoughts or insights on world Liberty financial.
Anecdotal Insights
I personally haven't dug too deep into it. I do have some friends in the crypto space who have been asked to be advisors to world Liberty Financial. Some said yes, some said no. But it's just. It's just kind of interesting. And I know were doing the hand raising thing earlier, but Twitter's glitching, and it looks like everyone's raising their hand on my side.
Encouraging Open Dialogue
So, if you have something you want to say on this, just, like, unmute your mic. And I can see that perfect crypto writer you unmuted yourself. Yeah. So I'm actually digging back right now because I actually. So world Liberty financial, it came out super bullish, and all of a sudden, I don't know who or what, but there was a tweet.
Concerns Over Credibility
There's a post saying that it actually. That Eric Trump's account was hacked, and that's not actually endorsed by Trump. So I'm actually actively going back through and looking for that exact tweet. But, you know, yeah, Trump is bullish. Nfts, throne, polygon. You know, he's actively saying that, you know, he wants to make the US a, you know, dominant in the crypto sphere.
Expectations for a Possible Coin
Is he gonna launch a token between now and the election? I'm gonna go, where did this thing? Is it on? I'm trying to find it on here. I don't. I don't think you will, though. I don't. I don't think he will. I think it's just too much. I think his team is gonna advise him against it, you know, but, yeah, no, I was touching on the world Liberty financial, and I'm trying to find the actual account right now.
Final Thoughts and Clarification on Events
Give me a second. Let me go find it really quick. Yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean, kind of what you said, like, and when you say Eric Trump's account got hacked, do you mean, like, is this, like, polygon discord hack, or is this, like, near protocol Twitter account hack? You know, two very different types of hacks.
Reflections on Security Protocols
Wow, that's extreme. I don't know if anything can be, like, near protocol hack ever again. That was, like, the most extreme hack I've ever seen. In fact, I kept trying to, quote, tweet it, and it wouldn't let me. Well, it was fake. It was a fake hack. It was a marketing scheme by the near protocol team. That's what it was.
Investigating Recent Events
Thought so, yeah. So I'm actually, I'm gonna dig in here through the world. Liberty financial. I'm gonna see if I could find this tweet. But, yeah, no, that was pretty intense. I'm not. It was, it was on air. Trump's, like, it was on his profile when it initially came out. I specifically remember, and now that I'm looking at Eric Trump's profile, I don't see it.
Concerns about Crypto and Elections
Gotcha. Gotcha. Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of reasons to bet why people might betting no on this as well. like, regulatory concerns are one thing. Like, also, like, just bear market conditions in general, I don't think, you know, I mean, who knows, if it's the right time to launch a token or not. Not financial advice, not investment advice. I, you know, he should probably focus on the election, is what people would probably be saying as well. I think there was a hack of. Of the Trump, someone in Trump's family promoting, like, a, kind of, like, a fake crypto project. So I. Yeah, I think that kind of just might delay things, even if they did have one. We'd like to get other people's insights on just, you know, like I said, looks like everyone's no future, Diana. Looks like everyone's hand is raised. I don't know if anyone has any comments on this.
Expectations Around Trump's Crypto
I mean, they're definitely going to launch a coin. Is it gonna before the election? Probably not. And this project is definitely, like, actually endorsed by Trump. He's posted about it on his Instagram story, and he's even, like, tweeted about it. I don't know. I'm sure that's his, like, social media team doing that. But this isn't, like, another one of those, like, super speculative. Is this official or not? Like, it definitely is official. And I'm sure that the traders of crypto Twitter are going to be locked in on a token is going to drop. But I definitely think 100% of token is going to launch eventually. Is it going to happen in the next couple months, probably not, because, like you said, crypto Texan. He's probably got to focus on getting elected.
Odds and Strategy in Crypto Betting
Yeah, I'm getting ready to place my bet on no, right now the odds are still pretty good. I can still make about 70%. So I'm pretty happy with those odds. But honestly, knowing Trump, he won't launch it until he gets, you know, election day. He gets elected, he launches it right then and there because it'll go to the, like, he'll expect it to go to the moon and it'll get, you know, he'll have the world's mind share, and at that point, he'll be legally protected. So he'll feel pretty impervious. I think his family is probably waiting to execute a lot of different ideas right now until his election. I definitely think they will launch a token, but I doubt they'll do it before the election. They don't want to pull too much attention away from his election campaign just yet.
Market Dynamics and Timing
And if you look at the market right now, there's $1.3 million in volume on this. Market resolves on November 4, obviously. And right now it's saying that there's a 43% chance of yes. So I just think it's interesting. That was just one that I kind of saw out there. I think there's two months, too. So I think time constraints are also something to take into consideration. So, yeah, I just found this post here. So, yeah, you're right. It looks like Eric Trump has reposted about world Liberty financial, but it looks like crypto town hall. They made a post that Trump, that Laura and Tiffany, Trump's ex's account got hijacked.
Bogus Projects and Social Media Scams
And we're promoting a bogus project, world Liberty Financial, with the promise of WL tokens on Solana. So maybe that was what I read. So. But it looks like Eric is it did retweet it. So I don't know what this is. Maybe it was just a token that they were talking about. So. Yeah. Anyone else have any comments on this? If not, we can, we'll move on to the next topic. All right. If you have any comments, just unmute yourself and start talking because the hand raising thing is not working. All right, the next topic up for discussion here is will Apple invest in OpenAI?
Apple and OpenAI Investment Discussions
So there have been, like, some, like, recent reports, like the Wall Street Journal reported, like, a couple weeks ago that Apple is in talks to invest with OpenAI. So that kind of lends some credibility to the possibility let's take a look. Let me pull this up real quick and see what we're looking at. It's not a highly vetted market, but there's like, people are saying that there's a 53% chance that Apple will invest in OpenAI by the end of 2024. There's some strategic alignment there. Like, if you can imagine like Siri being able to leverage OpenAI, that would be pretty awesome. But also, like, the reasons people are focusing on. No. As well is like Microsoft is also a major investor in OpenAI, which could complicate things with Apple's potential investment.
Challenges Ahead for Apple
I mean, there's always like regulatory scrutiny, with like antitrust of big techs. And so I think Apple is being cautious there. and typically Apple doesn't make large or investments in large companies. They typically make smaller strategic investments rather than larger ones. However, this could be an exception to the rule. If y'all listen to the all in podcast, this is something that they touch on quite a bit. I highly recommend listening to that podcast. It's, it's great. But yeah, I mean, would love to get people's thoughts here. Like, what is this a big deal? Why would people betting this way?
Apple’s Investment Strategy and Market Behavior
Yeah, just kind of, I feel like. Apple doesn't, like you said, doesn't invest in stuff like that. They just don't buy companies. Right. Like, we're not trying to have a piece of the pie. We're trying to have the whole pie. So I would expect it more to find some promising AI startup because especially if Microsoft has already allocated cash. I mean, Microsoft and Apple aren't exactly friends, right? So I would more expect them to buy a startup that isn't at the OpenAI level yet and go from there. Because again, Apple doesn't want a piece of the pie. They want everything.
The Importance of Innovation at Apple
And they've got plenty of money lying around to actually make that happen. But, dude, also, I'm not trying to be mean to Apple, but they've kind of, not to say they've fallen off, but like the allure of their previous, like, decade, like, even their VR headset that didn't really take off and their iPhones are still doing great and all that, but they do kind of need to get with the program here a little bit. I'm not going to start fading Apple by any means, but they really do need to start getting a little bit more Steve Jobs esque. Right? In my opinion, anyway.
The Role of Cash Reserves and Future Plans
Yeah, I think that's a really good point, too. I mean, I and you're right, they do have, like, significant cash reserves. I think it was like 50, 60 billion, like in their last quarterly earnings report. So, like, what, like, what are you doing with all that cash? Anyone else have any thoughts on this? Like, why would people betting yes or no? Is this viable for them to do? definitely making big noise in the tech space.
Betting Strategies and Market Outcomes
Well, it looks like we got 53% chance of yes right now. so, I mean, if you're wanting to get a little bit of, like, I guess at this early stage, because I think it closes out, what, December 31? So at the end of the year, you know, I mean, if you're wanting, to maybe get on the upside, you'd go with no right now just because it's at $0.49 versus $0.55 for yes or no, you go for. Yeah, I know. That way you can sell it, right? I guess. I mean, that could be a strategy that traders predictors, if you will, could use on something like this.
The Debate on Apple’s Future Moves
No future. I'm showing your hands up. Is that, do you have any comments on this? My hands actually not up, but I can, I mean, honestly, I do agree with the point that it does make more sense that they would go and buy smaller startups. But, you know, we just said that Steve Job esque ness is lacking, so I could see them more likely trying to make a major investment in a known competitor, in someone who can actually deliver something immediately versus, you know, going through a research and development phase and falling behind potentially everyone else who's in this industry and has been iterating for years.
Evaluating Apple's Strategy in AI Development
Yeah, that's a great point. We'll get, we'll get one more opinion on this. I'm going to pick on, Diana, what are your thoughts here? Do you have any thoughts here? And then we can move. No, don't pick on me. I haven't been listening. I'm sorry. That's okay. Vishesh also raised this. Scrolling right now. That'S also important. That's a healthy way to start your Monday is some good old fashioned doom. Scrolling with your coffee.
Apple's Historical Approach to Innovation
Vishesh, what are your thoughts on this? Yeah, I think, you know, Apple is known for doing things a little late than the market, but doing it, you know, in a very user friendly way. So I don't think that, you know, Apple will be going for investment either by acquiring a startup or, you know, investing in any kind of enterprise that already exists. But I think they'll be developing this in house. That is, you know, my take on it, because Apple, by the virtue of it, because when the notch came, they brought the notch a little bit later, but they integrated the whole island thing onto it.
Predictions Within Apple’s Technological Evolution
When, you know, everyone was talking about how things should roll, Apple was just sitting on the fence. But later, after an year, they came onto it, but they came with the bank. So I think the similar thing is going to happen with AI. Like, they won't rush into acquiring something because if they acquire something or if they invest in someone, it won't be the, again, Steve Jobs thing. So they'll be, I think, following their own footsteps and build something on their own. That is, you know, more of my thing. That instead of investing somewhere, they'll just build it on their own.
Apple’s Unique Position in AI Development
Yeah, I think. I think that's an interesting point, too, because I think some of the controversy surrounding the OpenAI and Apple investment was like, the thing that's so great about Apple is the way that it leverages encryption for its users. And there's been cases where, like, law enforcement is trying to get into someone's phone and Apple tells them, like, we literally can't because of the encryption. And it's designed that way for a reason. And the issue with leveraging OpenAI's technology is that, yeah, you would have to, like, if you wanted to use Siri for something, like, you would have to send that information to a third party server.
Concerns Over User Security and Privacy
And then, because the amount of compute that's required, that's necessary for this type of AI and LLM interaction is like, it's so big that it can't be on a phone. And if you're leveraging a third party, that information goes to a third party, and then it comes back and it's just less secure, less encrypted, more surface area for attacks and hacks and things like that. So I think that's another reason why people are possibly a little skeptical on that side. okay, well, we'll go ahead and move on because we only have about 15 minutes left. We could talk about the NFL season in the Super bowl, or we can talk about monkeypox in the US.
Future Discussions on NFL Season and Current Events
I'll let. I'll let the people here decide. What do we want to talk about? Let's go with the Super bowl. All right. I want monkey pox. Don't, don't. I want monkey pox, mister future. Because my team plays tonight, and I've actually, I have active bets on not the. The game tonight, but the overall Super Bowl. Champion. And I think that tonight, depending on the outcome of the game, can affect the Super bowl champion odds.
Anticipation for Upcoming NFL Matches
So it's just fascinating to me. Yeah. And who is it? Jets Niners tonight. Is that who it is or. Yeah, it's Jets Niners. Okay, cool. I had that right? Yeah. Awesome. That's. That's exciting. Okay, so, yeah, let's talk about it. So week one of the NFL season is about to wrap up. It's been very exciting. If you are a Cowboys fan like myself, I didn't get to watch a whole lot of NFL action.
Personal Experiences and Betting Perspectives
I mean, honestly, like, I kind of just picked, like, one or two games because I will get completely burnt out and just lose interest. So Cowboys and then the Saturn and then the Sunday night game was. Was mine, but, yeah. So when you're looking at the odds right now, the Chiefs 15% chance makes sense. They won their first game. They've won three out of the past five Super Bowls. They've got Patrick Mahomes, who is just all around badass.
NFL Teams and Predictions
Okay, well, the 49ers are. Are in second place. Right? I mean, they made the Super Bowl in 2020 and last year. And then who did they. Did they lose to the Chiefs both times? Is that no future? You would know this. I think they lost to the Chiefs both times. Yes. Okay. Sorry to bring that up, but, yeah, I think it's gonna be an exciting season. I just thought, you know, this. This is something interesting. You know, I was looking and we talked about this previously where if you look down the list on the prediction market, for the Super Bowl champions, like, there. There could be potentially a strategy where you pick one of these, like, very lower ranked teams and just hope that they win a couple of games. Right. If you could. Right. If you could lock in the Titans at under ascent and then they go on a little winning streak, and then they go from a cent to, like, $0.05.
Bets on NFL Teams
Like, they're like, that's a potential for people to like five extra money because you don't have to hold this bet all the way into the Super Bowl. Right. So I think this is an interesting way to predict who's going to win the Super bowl. The fact that you can buy and sell shares. Yes or no? However you want. But I'm just going to leave it up to the Cowboys. Won this weekend, by the way, against the Browns. It was a great game. Dak just signed the largest contract in NFL history. I think it was like a $220 million contract. Holy smokes. That is a big one. So I'm just gonna leave it open to the floor. Anyone who wants to talk NFL, no future. I'll kick it to you first, since you were so excited to talk about it. Yeah, I'm one of those people. I'm a Jets fan, and if they win the game tonight, I can see them surging up the, you know, charts here.
Jets Fan Perspective
Maybe not up to, you know, the first or second place, but at least a few percentage points. And I've been, honestly, I put money on the jets once. I saw this market open like a month ago, just because they had, like, a 4% chance. And on the same, very same strategy that you're talking about, the idea that, like, you know, I'm a realistic jets fan. They never win. Right. But if they can cobble together a couple wins in a row, then sentiment might shift them up. They are one of the largest in terms of market teams in the NFL. So there's that potential that there is upside from that. But, you know, I also live in Nashville, Tennessee. So now that you're talking about the Titans, I'm like, should probably look into that because, you know, it's just Titan fever. It's everywhere. It just, it just opens this interesting dynamic because I could directly bet on the game tonight where I have a, like, for the jets winning.
Betting on Player Performances
I think it's a 35% odds of. So, like, I, you know, maybe double or triple my money if I pull off a win where if they win and take down the 49ers on this bet, the Super Bowl champions, they could realistically jump to 810 percent, which would be almost doubling, you know, doubling my money in a very short period of time. So looking at it and kind of approaching it with that kind of mindset, it's similar to what I did when I bet wrongly during the gold medal basketball game for the Olympics. I was betting on France because they had, like, a 3% chance of winning with the idea that, like, if they are close, if they get even close, we'll see that surge. And it did momentarily, but they ultimately lost, and I lost everything. So it's just, for me, I like this idea that there is, like, I could have two upsides here by betting directly on this game, but the effects of this game could also affect the odds for the Super bowl.
Thoughts on NFL Teams
Yeah. Oh, yeah. Go ahead, Alan. Yeah. Oh, no. Sorry, dude. Yeah, I was chilling watching red zone yesterday, and I would not bet for the Titans to win, man, they got. The Bears didn't even have a good offensive day. Like, their defense won them the game, and the Titans, like, were pretty atrocious. So if the offense doesn't perform, like, against your opponent and you still lose, that's. That's definitely a tough look, but just, like, way too early reactions. Chiefs, Texans, and Philadelphia are the three that I would be paying attention to. The Chiefs. Like, Buffalo Bills fans have to be hurt because the. The pick that gave the Chiefs Xavier Worthy was supposed to be the bills, and I guess they traded it or something like that. And you just, like, look at Xavier Worthing.
Predictions for the NFL Season
He fits perfectly into the cheap system. And the guy had two touchdowns in the opening game, and it's just like, okay, great. So the team that's already won the past two Super Bowls got even better. And that's obviously not ideal, but I think the dark horse, you know? And obviously, they're a good team. But, dude, Houston Texans, you know, that. That team is unbelievably stacked. You know. You know, the cowboys, bro, I respect, you know, your. Your fandom, but, man, dude, you guys gotta stop choking in the playoffs, and that. That's something that we gotta lock in on. But, dude, I would say don't sleep on the Texans, to be honest with you. I mean, CJ Stroud is the. Is the real one, is the truth. I agree 100%, because, I mean, I'm not betting on polymarket, but I'm a courtyard enjoyer on Polygon. I do collect a lot of tokenized collectibles, and I have a autograph.
Card Collecting and Value
CJ Stroud rookie card. That's PSA ten. It's up on courtyard, not for sale, but I bought it last year because I was like, this kid is wonderful. So I also have, like, in my house probably, like, 20 of his rookie cards. just because, you know, it's another way for me to bet and. But also to hold something and say, hey, look at, you know, like, I'm following this guy's career. so it's. It is. It is. I think the Texans are going to do pretty well this year as well. Yeah. I think that's, like, an. Also, like, a very interesting and unique way to, like, speculate for people to speculate on. On players specifically. Right. Like, it's interesting. And I've listened to a couple podcasts. Cause I dug, like, pretty deep into poly market or not polymarket, sorry, courtyard, when they first came out.
Markets for Trading Cards
And, like, purchasing those, like, professionally graded, sports trading cards, it's like, if you're bullish on a specific player and you buy their card low and then they go off and they win a Super Bowl, you can, I mean, the value goes up, right? Like, and it's like, it's a pretty reactive market on some of these players and these cards where you can, like, if they have a good week, the value of that card in general of that player will go up. it's a pretty fascinating market. And honestly, like, you know, I do, like, I do some sports betting from time to time, and I typically do it all on chain and I see a bet swirl in the audience right now, and they're built on top of a zero protocol. This is all predictions, right? Prediction markets, sports betting, prediction markets.
Emerging Betting Platforms
And, yeah, Azura's got some pretty unique infrastructure where it's like liquidity tree and anyone can build on top of it and create their own, like, sportsbook and bets role is one of those dapps that is a front end to Azuro's liquidity infrastructure in oracle services. So a pretty unique architecture there. I think we're going to start bringing in more types of prediction markets to this conversation as time goes on. But check out bet swirl and Azuro if you get a chance. Really, really exciting stuff happening there. Okay, who else has some thoughts, comments on NFL Super bowl? Because we're kind of running up on time here a little bit. So if anyone has any other comments, like, let's get them in.
General Discussions and Predictions
Yo, yo. Oh, hit it. Right. Go ahead. You can go ahead. How you doing? Good morning. Good to hear your voice, brother GM. Everybody happy to be here? No, I think there's a lot of, like, interesting plays that we're kind of talking about here from the undervalued perspective, you talk about teams that won this week. We have the Buccaneers, we have the Patriots and colts. Colts. You start looking at, or you start looking at schedules past this, right. If we're trying to play like, small percentage gains here and maybe selling early as far as their shares go, if you look at all those three schedules, Colts have like a very digestible next few weeks as far as their schedule is concerned.
Upcoming NFL Matchups
They have the packers coming up next week. Obviously, we had Jordan Love, who actually went down with some sort of injury. We'll see what the extent of that is. But then Steelers, Titans, Bears, Jags, like, very winnable next few weeks under. I think they're like $0.08 overall. So I think that's one of the ways that we're going to see people playing. This is hot young quarterback. Maybe things are working in their direction. A few different things as far as players that are playing well, and maybe we see those things increase overall. I myself, I'm sitting on a Shohei Ohtani rookie card as well too. So let's keep pushing the value of the courtyard assets, too. So all good things on my side.
Sports Cards and Personal Collections
I'm wondering how many people have sports cards on courtyard right now because I do. I got some Pat Mahomes, I got some Luka Doncic. You know, I got, you know, I. Got a LeBron James rookie card. I, and, you know, we talk about sentiment. Last year during the Super Bowl, I had a, I believe it was a signed Brock Purdy rookie card. And I literally waited till the very end of the game where it was very clear that they were going to lose and then just accepted, like, the top bid because I knew his price would drop after that. And I have other Brock Purdy cards, but it was just like, you know, just sitting there like, oh, God, please.
Strategies for Selling Cards
And, you know, I managed to pull off, I was Indiana Jones running away from the rock type stuff. And I got out of that bet. But, yeah, like, it's a, I love that these, like, actions I took as a ten year old, like collecting cards and being into this stuff, like, you know, I'm 40 now, and it's like, oh, I knew what I was doing when I was ten. This was like the smart move. Yeah. Like when the Super Bowl was happening, all of my Pat Mahomes cards on courtyard just started getting bids like crazy. Like all these bids for Pat Mahomes, you know, and that's the best thing about Polymark. It's like you just have your collection of cards on poly or not.
The Future of Online Sports Betting
Sorry, not polymarket, courtyard. You just have them on courtyard. And then people can just, if they like it, they can just bid randomly. You know, it's just like having an NFT on Open Sea. People give you bids. Crypto writer, I know you've got some comments, too. Yeah. Is anybody else getting the feel that, like, the Chiefs are going to be like the New England Patriots, like, you know, that team that just kind of is always talked about and, like, always winning the Super bowl, or is it just me? Short answer. Yes. Yes, I agree also. But I'm just happy as a Jets fan that it's not the Patriots anymore because that got old very quickly.
Fan Experiences and Allegiances
Yeah. Yeah. Me personally, I went to Texas Tech and that's where Pat Mahomes went to school. And so I'm you know, I'm a big cowboys fan, but also a Pat Mahomes fan as well. If Taylor Swift is a Chiefs fan, I'm a chief fan too, I guess. So this would, this is great. That's the only right answer. Should we do a separate AMA in the future? That's just like on chain sports. That could be an interesting little segment that we do and then we can get like bet, swirl, Dex win, all the other like sports prediction market, I will call them sports prediction market projects that are building on Polygon involved as well, including polymarket.
Looking Ahead
But there's a lot of other ones too that more that have like a more traditional sportsbook feel. That could be something to look into. But anyway, we're running up on time, unfortunately. It was great to have everyone back. Thanks for coming back after the week off. And you know, Mister Future, I know you really wanted to talk about Monkeypox, so I'll be sure to make sure that's on the docket for next week. Next Monday, actually, that's where we'll break down the debate. We'll talk about Monkeypox and who knows if you have any other ideas of content or prediction markets that you want touch on, leave them in the comments. There's been comments in the previous ones and I'll pull those up and we'll add them to the show.
Ending Thoughts
If you want to talk about them, please do it. And everyone, have a great start to your week and we'll see you next time. So bye everyone.
