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Behind the Mic
Introduction and Game Previews
What's up, Djens? And welcome into our Sunday morning spaces. We're going to go live and break down everything here in a couple minutes. Gonna wait for Smitty to join in here and a couple more listeners. But what's up, Nivelle? Man, how we feeling today? I know we got a nice little Sunday card today, right? Four plays and two parlays that we sent out to clients on Friday night. We've had these locked in all weekend, man. And I'm excited for today. Yeah, it's going to be a good one. It was a different, not different, more difficult, I would say, week to cap just with some of these matchups. So kind of had to get picky with the plays, but it's going to be a fun week. A lot of good games, a lot of close spreads, so going to learn a lot about some of these teams and, you know, yeah, excited to get into it. It should be a fun one today. Definitely going to be a fun one. And, yeah, I know the three of us, we kind of all agreed that this was, this is a tough week.
Challenges of the Current Week
It's a weird week in the NFL, but at the same time, I think this is where a lot of teams, you know, kind of start playing good football and figuring out their identity, right? No preseason or there is preseason, but 90% of these guys don't play in it. And, smitty, how you feeling, man? We got you in here now. You looking forward today? I know. Like I just said, we all kind of think it's an interesting slate, but it's NFL nonetheless. And we're coming off a yemenite coming up when we stacked four units in college football last night, so we got some units to play with. Yeah, I like grimy NFL weeks. Sometimes you just have to really get in there and play some wagers that, you know, aren't the prettiest wagers, aren't the sexiest wagers, but, you know, whatever makes you money is what you have to go with. And I think this is one of those kind of weeks with what we took and the games that are available and, hey, you got to do whatever you can to make money. So sometimes these weeks can be the most profitable type weeks you can find.
Discussion of Betting Strategies
Yeah, that's a great point. And I know we all kind of said this is one of the uglier cards we've had since we've been capping NFL over these last four or five seasons and. But you said it, best, man. Whatever makes you money. At the end of the day, those are the plays you got to take. And, you know, we got an under, we got a couple team totals today and we're, we got a, we got some ugly teams that we're back in. But let's dive into this slate. Let's give the DJ some plays to what they're here for. Right. This first game we're going to touch on the Broncos traveling to the jets today to take on Aaron Rodgers. And the jets laying eight points, total at 39 and a half. And, smitty, I'm going to go to you at this one, man. This is the, what, second largest spread of the week we've seen all season. These big spread teams, not even, they can't cover, but they're losing outright in this one. And I don't know if just seeing that all the first three weeks is kind of in my head on this one and why, you know, it's kind of a just second, I'm second guessing myself everything here, man.
Analyzing the Jets-Broncos Matchup
But what do you like in this one? Yeah, this is a, you know when you see the jets laying a big spread like this, right. Very similar to last week, what we saw with the bucks against the Broncos. Right. That was a very popular. How many times have the jets laid over a touchdown in our lifetime? This is, I can probably count one hand, it hasn't been often, but hey, this is what having Aaron Rodgers can do. And, you know, on that point, I'm still kind of hesitant on the jets. Right. You know, they came up last week with a good Thursday night win against New England, 24 to three. But I think as we saw in that game and kind of as we expected before the season started, the Patriots are going to be one of the worst teams that week. One win over Cincinnati, I think is kind of further and further in the rearview mirror, and I think we're kind of seeing that they're not very good. So I'm not sure how impressive of a win that is for the jets.
The State of the Broncos and Jets
And then on the Broncos side of the ball, really a surprising win last week. I didn't see them going into Tampa and playing that type of game. They were, they were pretty dominant in that game on defense and on offense. So, you know, and same thing. I think that was sort of a flukey thing, too. But when you're laying over a touchdown here, you know, we know how big the road underdogs have been with cashing spreads, but at the same time, I'm not really I'm not jumping on board to really bet Bo Nicks either. So for me, it's a stay away, but can understand why the spread is as heavy as it is. Definitely. And I'm going to be surprised if the jets lose this game. I'll flat out and say it, you know, not a big hot take there. They're laying 380 on the money line. But this is another one that I think, you know, you maybe look to tease down. You know, we're laying off teasers this week.
Teasing Strategies and Next Matchup
They've treated us horribly so far to start the season. Like we said, all these big favorites are just losing out, right. But I think that would maybe be where I go with this one. You know, tease the jets down to two points, point and a half, get them to just basically win this game by a field goal or more. And Naveli, I'll go to you, man. You like anything in this one? No, I think you just said it best. You know, that eight number is a good number to tease down to two, get a below a field goal. That's a popular teaser spot. So I think that's a good way to go. I mean, Bo Nicks, yeah, had his best game of the year last year. Still only through for 216 yards, right? Looked a little bit better. Still hasn't had a passer rating above 90 in a game where he had 47 and a half and 55.2 the first two games. And things aren't going to get easier for him today.
The Bengals vs. the Panthers
Right. Going against this New York defense, only given up a little over 150 pass yards a game. Top five, you know, past defense in the NFL. So I think Denver has a tough time moving the ball and I'm on board with you guys. I'd be very surprised if the jets lose this one, but it's too big of a number for me to lay with them still, you know, not really trusting Rogers in this team quite yet, but should win this one, like you said, tease them down. Maybe that's probably the only way I would play this one, but for me in general, just going to be a stay away on this 01:00 slate. Yeah, a lot of people in sports media and in sports gambling like this jets team, and it's kind of funny how the three of us are all in unison and we just got to see more from Aaron Rodgers, I think. But yeah, this is a bet fate in Denver, I think, on my part, if you want to tease them down, but let's jump into this next game.
Cincinnati Bengals Overview
You get the Bengals at the Panthers in this one, Andy Dalton facing his former franchise. We're all very familiar with Dalton playing in the Bengals as AFC north fans, and this is a huge game for Cincy, right? They come into this 10 three, the valley is this, you know, can they finally pull a win together against this Carolina team that a lot of people thought would be the worst team in the league again this year? Yeah. Another kind of a desperation spot here for Cincinnati. Right. You know, going to Carolina coming off their first win of the year. And Andy did have a big game in that last one, right? Tore apart that Las Vegas defense. But I think Cincinnati wins this game. You know, I'm not really comfortable playing them on a spread yet, just from what I've seen them over under at 47.
Panthers Analysis
Maybe lean the over a little bit in this one, too, just based on how bad these defenses have been. We saw with Carolina last week, Ray Dalton looked very good. They finally got Deontay Johnson involved, ran the ball pretty well, too, so see if they can keep that going. The Cincinnati defense rated has really struggled against the run. Bottom five mark in the league and teams are trying to throw on them. Right. You know, they're going to try to test the secondary. A lot of new faces in that secondary this year, so going to be interesting to see. But like you said, this was another game I think we all talked about, right. You know, it's kind of hard to cap. You don't know what you're getting with Cincinnati right now being owing three, Carolina coming off, you know, a slightly impressive win on the road in Vegas. So I'm going to stay away from this one.
Conclusion on Bengals-Panthers Matchup
I think the Bangles get it done, but, you know, I'm not sure they're going to cover that four and a half. Could be a close game, could be a three point win, the bangles a little, just a win. And then I'd probably lean that over a little bit, too, just based on how bad these defenses have been, but probably going to be a complete stay away from me, if I'm being honest. Yeah, I definitely like the Bangles, you know, coming into this one. And if you would have told me this was the spread a week or two ago, I would have hammered it. But, you know, after watching him play the last two weeks, that defense can't stop a nosebleed. And I just, you know, I'm too scared to put him in any of my slips this week.
Potential Upset Alert
Even though I think they're going to win this game by five points or more. I don't know if you can trust this team to beat any team in the league by that much, you know, but this is another one. I will be surprised if the Bengals go ahead and lose this game to Carolina. I hope it happens. You know, I'm rooting for the Panthers to pull this one off. I just don't know how realistic it is. Smitty, you think Carolina can pull off this upset? Yeah, I don't think I'd be completely shocked at this point. The way that Cincinnati's played the first three weeks, what's really crazy about them, you look at them, they're owing three, and Burrows had a pretty good three games.
Cincinnati's Performance Assessment
You know, it hasn't been the quarterback position really. That's been the problem. It's just been big problems defensively. Just some bad decisions in the red zone, a costly turnover at a bad time. But I, I agree. I think we're going to get some points in this game. Carolina, you look, the first three games they gave up 22 last week to the Raiders, 26 the week prior to that to the Chargers. And then obviously in week one that big 47 spot New Orleans was able to put up. And, you know, if you look at that, bangles past defense last week, right, getting shredded by Daniels and everything. Dalton could have some big plays.
Bengals vs. Panthers Game Insights
So I probably do like the over, if anything, in this game, sitting there at 47. But spread wise, I think it's right on the money. It's a desperation spot for Cincinnati. But I, you're also laying over a field goal on the road and that can be dicey at times. Next up, we got a little playoff rematch from last year's NFC wild card round. The Philadelphia Eagles are headed down to Tampa Bay to take on Baker and the Bucks. And this is another interesting spread. The Eagles are one point favorites in this one. You get a total sitting at 41 and a half, and this is a, like I said, this is just an interesting spread. I think that's the best way to describe it.
Eagles and Bucks Pre-Game Insights
I'm kind of, you know, was kind of surprised seeing Philly favored on the road headed into the week, but this NFC south division is kind of coming back down to earth a little bit. Smitty, I'm going to go back to you at this one, man. What do you like in this one? If anything, I think this is definitely going to tell a lot about both teams this week. Yeah, for me, this is a watch and learn game, and hopefully, I think I've said that with the Eagles the last couple weeks, like, I just, I want to, I want. To eagles our mental nightmare when it comes to gambling because you know what they can do.
Eagles Performance Concerns
I want to see something that points me in either direction. Right. And it's just, I haven't, you know, I've kind of gotten a mediocre performance the last two weeks. Right. Where, you know, that they should have won the game against Atlanta on Monday night two weeks ago. We know what happened in that one. And then last week in New Orleans, you know, they're facing a two and O Saints team, a Saints team that had looked really good up until that point and, you know, they beat them 15 to twelve, but you're also sitting there at the end of the game kind of scratching your head going, okay, I still didn't really see anything that impressive from them, though. So I don't know.
Expectations for Today's Eagles-Bucks Clash
This is a tough spot. Right. This is obviously the replay of the playoff game last year which Tampa Bay killed them, right? 32 to nine. You know, just put an end to that really disappointing end of the season for the Eagles. And Baker had a big game. I don't know what to expect in this one. I think it makes sense that spread is a point. It's practically a pick them because it's really hard to fully invest in either of these teams right now, given some of the inconsistencies on both. Navel. Where's your head at with this one? Yeah, I think the turnover battle is going to be big in this one, right? You got a spread that's basically a pick them.
Turnover Implications
Jalen Hurts, hasn't protected the ball at all this year, right. Already thrown four interceptions, has lost a few fumbles. So if he can, you know, not turn the ball over, I think that Philadelphia is going to have a good chance here. You know, they've been moving the ball well, ranked top ten and most offensive stats, and this Tampa defense has really struggled, right. They're giving up a ton of yards, you know, giving up a ton of points, you know, in the bottom half of the league of points and they're not getting to the quarterback. So if they can't get to Hertz, if they let him run around a little bit, I think that they could be in some trouble.
Performance Impact Factors
But if Hertz is turning the ball over, you know, if Baker can do it, he did in the first two weeks, you know, kind of protect the ball, you know, and just kind of control the game, right. He had a passer rating of 146 in that first one, over 90 in the second game. And, you know, just kind of fell off against Denver last week. Right. Didn't throw it well, you know, had 160 pass yards, 25 completions, so really nothing over the top. And Tampa needs Godwin, they need Evans to make big plays to wins these games. I think Rashad White might be out today, too. I saw that this morning.
Baker and the Bucks' Offensive Strategy
But, but Bucky Irvin's played good at the tailback position, too.
Turnover Battle Insights
So, like you guys said, a lot to be learned in this one. I think the turnover battle is going to be big here. Whoever wins that probably comes out on top.
Player Performances
Yeah, I actually think Bucky's been the better back in the backfield for Tampa Bay. And you mentioned Chris Godwin there. I think that's going to be my play in this one. I'm going to take a prop on God one, probably go over his receiving yards, pulling it up right now it's 64 and a half, 65 and a half on some of these sites. And he's just, he's been their workhorse this year, man. Mike Evans getting a lot of attention. Baker's throwing the ball a ton. You said they're stuff that their starting running back might be out, so they might just be throwing it a little bit more.
Bucks Betting Strategy
And this isn't an official play, you know, from the account, but this is just my play. I'm going to be riding Chris Godwin today in this game. I'm rooting for the Bucks in this one, too. Who knows? I might even throw a little bucks money line out there. Just. Just tune it in this next game.
Upcoming Matchups
Another good spot here. Rams and the Bears. The Bears, three point favorites at home in this one. Total of 40 and a half. And Smitty, I know we all kind of have thought the same thing all week. The spread has dropped a little bit down. You can get the Bears at three right now is. It's weird, man. But kind of like the Bears, right? Weird to say it.
Observations on Bears vs. Rams
Yeah, I do. You know that tweet you just put up here in the space? I looked, I was just. I wanted to check it. Ram's third highest ticket count with MGM as of this morning. And I think that makes sense because, you know, this is a weird kind of line, and we said it earlier in the week. I was, I was surprised that Chicago was lane three. I get that they're at home, but, you know, there hasn't been a whole lot that the Bears have done, especially offensively to this point. That gives you a ton of hope, but it's just, this is one of those games, right, where you look at the line and you look at the public perception of it and it's, then those two things just really aren't in alignment.
Public Perception and Bear's Advantage
And I usually like fading the public in these spots. So I like the Bears minus three in this game. Maybe it's safer to take them on the money line because again, it could very well be a game where there is not a lot of points and, you know, even laying three could be too much. So maybe it's just safer to go moneyline. But, you know, the Rams, look, they won that game against San Francisco last week. It was a big surprise to many people, but I think in some ways it was more. The Niners gave that game away. Right. They were up in the fourth quarter.
Rams' Comeback Analysis
You weren't thinking it was going to be a Rams comeback. They really weren't in the game through three quarters, and then things kind of went their way. I think it's tough to, you know, go on the road the following week after a big divisional win like that, a win over your rival, a win over a team that they just don't beat very often to begin with. So I like the Bears in this spot. I think it's a sneaky spot, and I think it's one that the public probably gets taken out on by 04:00 today.
Parlay Predictions
Yeah, and let's go ahead and give out this parlay that we got today. Man, plus 445 odds and the Bears on the money line. That is the first leg for everything that Smitty just said. We like this spot today. You know, we think it's going to be just an ugly game. Ugly game, ugly win, ugly type of week. You know, Smitty said it best. And the second leg we got in this next game, the packers and the Vikings. I think this could be one of the best games of the week.
Packers and Vikings Rivalry
These teams do not like each other. Big NFC rivalry and the packers are laying two and a half points, the total sitting at 45 and a half in this one and the valley. We're going to roll with the packers on the money line in this one for the second leg of this parlay. We think the pack get it done at home today. Yeah, I think they get it done at home. You know, it's always tough going to Lambo and picking up a win and as good as Minnesota's look this year.
Jordan Love's Return
We think that, you know, Jordan love coming back into the lineup today. You know, kind of making a return quicker than most people thought after suffering that injury. And they'll be glad to have him back. Right. Malik Willis played good in his two games, but they didn't throw the ball much. Right. Just 33 pass attempts over the last two games. And you gotta, you know, this Minnesota defense has been really good, right.
Assessing Defensive Strengths
But you gotta beat them through the air. They've been great against the run rate, second in the NFL and rush yards allowed this year, but teams are throwing 41 times a game. I know Brian Flores is gonna throw a lot of formations at Jordan Love, but if he's patient, you know, if he can use his weapons on the outside. Right. Jaden Reed looks really good right now. Dontavian Wicks is, had some nice plays. So think they're going to, you know, benefit from having love back in this one and that defense, right?
Packers' Defensive Capability
You know, the Packers, I think it's a lot better than what they've showed, right? They are 12th and then a felon scoring defense, Pat, or the Vikings are scoring a bunch. They get Addison back, so they get some weapons back. But I think this is the first game where we see Darnold struggle a little bit, right? Like we said, the opposing quarterbacks going into Lambo for some reason, it's just a really hard place to play.
Game Atmosphere Impact
You know, the crowds right on you. We see it be the best, one of the best atmospheres in the NFL year after year. So, like Green Bay here, being at home, I think this is a good football team. Think Jordan Love has a nice game back in this one. And like you said, NFC north matchup, you know, home teams in these games usually dominate.
Final Thoughts on Packers vs. Vikings
So think the packers win. Not going to lay the two and a half, just take them on the money line. That's the second leg of the parlay there. And think like Mindy just said, think come 04:00 in this when we get a victory for Green Bay and Minnesota falls to three and one on the year.
Packers Defense Potential
Yeah, definitely. I like this Green Bay defense to shine in this one. Like you said, we think Darnold's going to struggle a little bit in this one. The packers, they forced seven interceptions and they got nine total takeaways. That's the most in the NFL. They got eleven sacks this season, which is the fifth most. You know, they're going to be disruptive in that backfield.
Justin Jefferson's Challenge
And another key point, I think, in this one is Justin Jefferson. Man, he struggled against the packers the last two times he's faced them. He only played them one time last year because he missed one of the games for injuries. But the last two times they've played Jefferson, they've held him for six total catches on 74 yards and no touchdowns. You know, the Vikings always tried to force feed them, but they've done a great job.
Analysis of Key Matchups
You know, they have Jair Alexander. A lot of people remember him, you know, talking all that shit and gritty and all over Jefferson the last couple seasons. But I'm really looking forward to that matchup again today. Man, that's one of the best matchups in the NFL, I think, when you're looking at a wide receiver and cornerback standpoint.
Final Parlay Considerations
But yeah, we're right. We're riding with the packers to get the win on the money line, and that's going to be the second leg of this parlay and that third leg that's going to be later in the 04:00 slate. Sit tight for that. We'll revisit when we finish these 01:00 games.
Upcoming NFC South Encounter
But next up, let's go to Atlanta. Another battle in the NFC south. You get the Saints headed to Atlanta, taking on the Falcons. The Falcons, two and a half point favorites, total of 41 and a half. And smitty, this one, to me, it's kind of another one of those, you know, you sit back, you watch and you learn. But is there anything you like in this game?
NFC South Rivalry Significance
I'm excited to watch, you know, these teams battle it out. This, this could end up, this could be a huge game when the playoffs come around, you know, big tiebreaker.
Falcons' Unique Season Perspectives
Yeah, it definitely could be the way that both have started. Right. You know, the Falcons sitting at one and two. It's an interesting one and two, in my opinion. You know, the first week they played, the Steelers had a really rough game. It was an ugly game. Kirk looked really bad. It looked like he couldn't move.
Falcons' Performance Analysis
Then they go to Philly the following week, they pull out that win in the fourth quarter and you're thinking, okay, Atlanta can be a pretty good team. And then they play last week against the Chiefs and it's one of those ones that they really could have and should have won the game. They kind of shot themselves in the foot late.
Falcons' Key Decisions
There were some bad decisions made. It's a questionable PI call on the third and goal, which when you're playing the Chiefs is typical to happen. But, but again, you know, Atlanta could have a very different record than the one and two one that they sit with right now. And on the other side, and you look at New Orleans, you know, utterly dominant through the first two games, beating up on Carolina and Dallas.
Saints Recent Struggles
And then last week, you know, again, a big comeback, down to earth moment, you know, losing 15 to twelve to Philly, really struggling to move the ball. The offense didn't have that same explosiveness, explosiveness against the Eagles.
Game Impact Insights
And you have to wonder, you know, if Atlanta can kind of tap into some of that and keep them in check. Saw that camara is playing this game. I know there's some slight questions about, you know, if he'd be available or not. I don't know if he's 100%, he's going to give it a go. And I think that's big for the Saints going on the road. They need him.
Alvin Kamara's Importance
He's a big guy, obviously, in the backfield, a guy that can catch passes and I, and somebody that you can use as a weapon against Atlanta. So again, this is one for me that I'm going to kind of take a step back on and see what happens. But, you know, a tough spread.
Final Considerations on the Matchup
Only a field goal at home for Atlanta, 41 and a half. I think those numbers are about right where they should be. Definitely agree with that last part there. The Vegas seems like they got this one right on the money in this and, yeah, I think it's a. Stay away from us.
Key Strategy Highlights
Just tune in and really, really watch these teams battle it out. Next up, we're going to head to Houston as the Texans are hosting the Jags in this one. Houston lane, five and a half points total, sitting at 44 and a half.
Evaluation of Jags vs. Texans
And novel. You like anything in this one, man? I mean, on paper, Houston should just absolutely destroy Jacksonville. Right? Yeah, Houston should dominate in this one, right.
Texans' Recent Struggles
You know, they're a team that's coming off a loss, right? Coming off that ugly loss to Minnesota, CJ Stroud struggled a little bit, but this is a good get right spot for him.
CJ Stroud's Matchup Potential
Right. We've seen him, you know, be a very good quarterback in his young career and has a really good matchup in this one. Right. This Jacksonville defense has really struggled, given up the second most pass yards in the NFL so far.
Injury Impact Analysis
Joe Mixon, I think I saw he's out on this one. So it's going to be acres again to man that backfield, but shouldn't matter there, you know, he can do enough, catches the ball well out of the backfield and this Jacksonville team's just kind of in shambles right now right there.
Struggles in Jacksonville
They're not doing anything. There's questions starting to arise with Trevor Lawrence and if he's really the guy, you know, in Jacksonville, they're coming off a 37 point loss to Buffalo where they just got absolutely dominated all game.
Texas Dominance Odds
And I don't think this is the week where they get their first one of the year. Like you said, Houston should dominate this one. They do enough good things offensively.
Player Performance Expectations
You know, Nico Collins, Tank Dell should both have big games on the perimeter, you know, beating up on this Jacksonville secondary that's really struggled. And yeah, I think that, you know, just kind of all aspects of this game, we know that what this Houston team can do, I think they're going to score a bunch of points in this one, right.
Expectation for Jacksonville's Offense
You know, they should go out there, put up, you know, three, four touchdowns in this one and opposite should be so set against Jacksonville. Don't expect them to score more than a touchdown.
Analysis of Offensive Struggles
Going to be a lot of empty drives for this Jacksonville team. Think they're really going to struggle to put points on the board. So a lot to like about Houston in this one. Like you said, it is a divisional matchup.
Final Assessment of Texans
So that's really the only hesitation with taking the spread. But in all, you know, if you look at the paper, you look at the stats in this one, Houston should dominate. And I think that's kind of the wave I'm riding on this one.
Discussion on Mac Jones
Smitty, is this another game where, you know, we might see some more Mac Jones get in, might see some more Mac Jones time? If it is, I won't be watching.
Mac Jones Commentary
I'll see the. Here's the thing about Mac Jones. You don't have to watch them. You'll see the highlight video on social media of them throwing a pic and that's your Mac Jones experience of the day.
Conclusion on Quarterback Performance
It's very possible, though. You know, I'm, I'm one of the people that I'm really just kind of.
Surprise at Jacksonville's Performance
I don't want to say I'm shocked, but I am surprised that Jacksonville is an zero three team. And, you know, and just the way that they've lost some of these games, right. The first week it was a bad loss to Miami where they had a lead and then couldn't hold on to the lead. The Cleveland game, very ugly, right? You only put up 13 points there. And then last week, Monday night, I mean, just getting trounced in Buffalo, 47 to ten, you know, I don't know Doug Peterson, you know, he better be careful. I think that the seat might be getting a little hot. I like Doug. I think he's a good coach. But man, something's just not, something's not right with this Jags team. And yeah, I think it's a tough spot. I agree with everything Novelli said. I think it's a very good spot for Houston to bounce back today at home.
Analysis of Steelers vs. Colts Game
Last game on the 01:00 slate that we had to dive into the Steelers at the Colts in this one. And I think this is one of the ratlines of the week, boys. The Steelers, two and a half point favorites right now. Total sitting at 40 and a half. And Steelers, one of the most bet tickets, most money tickets of the whole of the week on the Steelers this week. And it's just one that you see the spread. The Steelers, they're three and now against the one and two Colts. Richardson just hasn't been good. There's not really any denying that. And now he's got to take on the Steelers defense. And, you know, I just don't understand the spread. It's too ratty for me to take the Steelers, in my opinion. But, you know, there's nothing in me that makes me want to take the Colts and I should just take the Colts based off the spread.
Concerns About the Steelers' Popularity
Right. That's, that's what we would typically do any other week here. But I think this is one of those spreads that just doesn't make any sense to me. And I can't get myself to take the Colts here, even though, you know, it's a rat line and I'm not even a Steeler fan. Right. I'm a Ravens fan. So for me to not want to bet against the Steelers in this spot, it feels pretty weird, but I can't bring myself to do it. Boys and smitty, I'll go back to you. You like anything in this one or does it just feel like a weird one? Yeah, I'm a Steeler fan and I'm very nervous about this game. I don't, you know, the line smells like you said and I think part of it has to do with just, you know, Richardson, as bad as he's looked, there is that, there's that capability in him that, you know, any given week he could kind of flip the switch and just figure it out.
Steelers' Defense and Matchup Concerns
I think it's tough, though, this week against the Steelers defense that has looked as good as they have. You know, obviously the Steelers are not going to maintain a defense that's only giving up. What is it? I think eight points a game, you. Know, through seven games through three weeks. I mean, that's ridiculous. Yeah. Not a sustainable pace, obviously, but I think they could definitely give him trouble. But as you said, I think the hesitancy with taking the Steelers, you know, sidewise, is, it's a very popular bet. Right. Which, you know, we've seen through three weeks, the popular bets have not done well. And then if you look at a game they played last year, and I think there's something to be said about it, they played last year in December at Indianapolis. Both teams were still in it. It was a meaningful game. It wasn't Richardson at quarterback. It was Gardner Minshew, which I think is a key distinction.
Past Performance and Current Predictions
But it was 30 to 13, Indianapolis, and they really, they held the Steelers in check offensively. The Steelers only had 216 total yards in that game. Indy almost doubled them up in yardage. They just kind of, the Steelers played one of their worst regular seasoning games last year india in that game. And it just kind of makes me wonder if there is maybe a matchup thing at play there. And I think it'll be a tough one. Right. The Colts are one and two. There's going to be a level of desperation. Indy two is also kind of a sneaky, tough place to play. It's a loud place to play. So all of those things that play. Yeah, I wouldn't want touch the spread, but maybe you look at, you know, in, under a side under, you know, one of the props unders, because I do think it's going to be an ugly game.
Expectations for Steelers vs. Colts
And that total sitting at 40 and a half is probably a little bit. High, especially for a Steelers team that it feels like they play the same formula every week. Right. Low scoring games. Under is already three and o to start the year. And Nivelli, is there anything you're looking at in this one? No, I think you guys hit on it pretty good. The Colts should have trouble moving the ball on this one. Like you said, smitty, Anthony Richardson's been really bad this year. Right. Already signed six interceptions, which is pretty crazy. Over three games. He's been a turnover machine. But we talked about it earlier this week. He has that capability to make the big play. I'm sure he's going to throw an 80 yard touchdown at some point 70 yards airtime.
Anthony Richardson's Potential and Challenges
You know, he has that capability. Be a, be a home run hitter, big game, you know, big play type of guy. But, yeah, I think like, you guys said just a two point favorite for the Steelers. It's a little bit ratty in this situation. It's a game they should theoretically win, but when you see them being the most bet ticket, whenever, you know, whenever the lines that low after a 30 start, the odds makers always know something. They're always on top of this and, you know, it's going to be an interesting one. Like you said, smitty, last year Sears really struggled at Lucas Oil. They played a really bad game. Didn't get anything going on the ground, didn't get anything going through the air.
Assessing the Cardinals vs. Commanders Game
So I think it's probably going to be another low scoring one in this one, right? 40 and a half, a lot of points for any type of Steeler game. So that could be a look. But going to lay off of it. Indianapolis is going to struggle moving the ball. The Steelers will probably struggle moving the ball and there's still a lot of questions with Justin Fields. Right. We should learn more even about him this week. Coming off his best game of the year, but going to go up and get some Indianapolis defense that has some playmakers, hasn't really played to their ability yet this year. Still a top 15 team in scoring defense. So should be interesting.
Game Predictions and Expectations
Excited for this one as a Steeler fan, but I definitely worried. Like you said, Smitty. Let'S move into the afternoon slate these 04:00 and 430 games. Well, let's close out this parlay, right? Plus 445 odds. We got the packers and the Bears on the money line to start it off and then hopefully we're going to close this out with the 49 ers, minus ten and a half. They're hosting the Patriots today and Smitty, kind of a get right spot for San Francisco at home. Right? Another. I feel like anytime San Francisco is at home, too, you have to look at them, too. They're just dominant.
San Francisco's Dominance and Predictions
Yeah, I think so. You know that now. To be fair, it's been the kiss of death through three weeks to like the biggest favorite on the board. There you go. Have some, you know, survivor entries to talk about that. Right. That are up in the wind, I'm sure as many people's are. But, you know, look, I think San Francisco, this is just a total mismatch. This would be the biggest surprise out. Of all of them, I think, too. Oh, 100%. Yeah, this could be the biggest. Yeah, for sure. This would be the, this would be way bigger than them beating Cincy the first week or really any of the ones that have happened the last two weeks going off that point.
San Francisco's Expectations Against New England
You know, like we said, we saw New England that first week. It was a surprise at Cincinnati, 16 to ten. You know, that's the type of game they have to. That's how they have to win if they're going to win games, right? You know, they have to make it as ugly as possible. It has to be as low scoring as possible. It's the only way the Patriots are going to have a chance to win games. And you saw the last two weeks, right. You know, their defense still played pretty decent, 23 points to Seattle, 24 points to New York. But the offense really kind of stuck in the mud.
Challenges for New England's Offense
You know, Brissettes had some struggles. Their offense aligns really bad in San Francisco. You know, off a week where they blew a game in the fourth quarter to a division rival. We talked about it last week. You never see Shanahan lose the McVeigh, and he did. I think there's going to be a lot of motivation and, you know, we talk about desperation and it's weird talking about desperation when you're in a ten and a half point favorite, but, I mean, San Francisco is one and two right now. We have no idea when McCaffrey is going to come back. You know, we don't know how long some of these injuries are going to last for them.
Expectations for San Francisco vs. New England
This is the kind of game you just got to kick the crap out of the Patriots and move on, I think. And I think they'll do that at home. I'd be comfortable laying the big number, and that's how we're going to close out this parlay. San Francisco minus ten and a half points. Think the Niners really take their frustration out on a bad Patriots team this afternoon? Plus 445 odds. The packers and the bears on the money line and the 01:00 slate, and then go ahead and take the 49 ers on the spread, minus 1010 and a half to close that out. And, yeah, really nice parlay we got there.
Final Thoughts on Upcoming Games
Like you said, smitty, I think it's just going to be, you know, take out all your frustration on a very bad Patriots team. Might even see Drake may get sacked a couple times in the fourth if it's that bad. Next up we got the commanders and Cardinals. The Cardinals are three and a half point favorites at home in this one. The total sitting at 49, one of the higher totals of the week. And Nivelli, I think this could be an exciting game, right? Both of these offenses, you know, producing some fireworks to start the season. What's, what's your prediction for this one?
Expectations for Commanders vs. Cardinals
Yeah, both teams have been, you know, extremely electric on offense. Both teams ranking the top eight of the league in yards gain this year. So two bad defenses to Jayden Daniels, obviously electric last week, 21 and 23 throw in the rock, 254 yards. Obviously some big throws to McLaren at the end of that game. But yeah, I think this is another one. You kind of, from a, you know, a winner or spread standpoint, you sit back and kind of, kind of evaluate what both these teams have do.
Analysis of Team Performances
Right. Arizona almost beat Buffalo earlier this year on the road. Played a close one Detroit last week. So I think there's a lot to be said about them and this Washington team. I think you can say the same. Right. We need to see a little bit more of them. This, this Arizona defense hasn't been good this far, right? Given up over 21 points a game, a bottom ten number in the league. And, you know, kind of the same can be said against this Arizona team. That defense has struggled. This Washington team has really struggled against the run.
Touchdowns and Over Bets
A lot of touchdowns up and down the field is what I'm rooting for. So I definitely would leave the over in this one. Like you said bad defenses and everywhere there. Set out to Vegas as the Raiders will host the Browns in this one. And this one was interesting all week, boys. Right? We saw a lot of line movement here as the Browns opened up as two and a half point dogs, and now they're minus two and a half point favorites on the road. Las Vegas ruled out a ton of guys in this one, including their two best players, Max Crosby and Devontae Adams. The totals at 37 in this one, and Smitty even sitting at two and a half. This is one where I feel like. You feel like Cleveland should win this one by more than a touchdown with all these guys out. And if Cleveland loses this one, man, I'm ready to. I'm ready to write them off the rest of the season.
Watson's Performance and the Spread
Yeah. You know, Watson needs to have not even a great game. Watson has to have just a respectable game. Like, what do you think the spread. Is if Jamis plays, if he starts? Who? I don't know. I'm just mentioning them right now. Probably not two. Watson's got to have a good game against this. Against this Raiders defense. Right. That is just the. It's the second worst in the league in yards per game allowed at 378. Right. They're giving up the worst yards per rush in the league at 5.4 yards. That's dead last in the NFL. You know, Cleveland should be able here against a team that lost to Carolina last week and that let Andy Dalton go up and down the field and score 36 points on their home field. There'll be a bunch of Cleveland fans in Vegas, right? A bunch of teams take over the Vegas Stadium.
Cleveland's Need for a Win
It's. It's a nice little getaway, and they need a win here, man. It's, you know, if the Browns start one and three and you start looking at this schedule ahead, right? That includes two road games. Next up, one at Washington, one at Philly, and then Cincinnati at home. This is just one that you can't lose. So happy that we got it on the plus side of the number before all that injury news came out. But even as you said, laying two and a half here, I think is still a good player within a field goal. This has to be a breakout game for the Browns if they think they're making the playoffs. They've got to win this game. Definitely have to win this game.
Injury Impact on the Game
And, yeah, it's funny you said it. We got him at a point and a half. I think literally after we sent it out and placed the bets, 30 minutes go by and they rule out Crosby and Adams. So were thrilled to get the Browns at plus money in this one, but like we said, still think they should cover the spread here. And if they lose this one, you can mail it in on the season. Next up, we got the Chargers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in this one. The Chiefs are seven point favorites on the road. You get a total of 41 and a half. And Nivelli, I was hoping for a little bit of a better game in this one. You know, we saw Justin Herbert leave last week with that injury. He's dealing with that high ankle sprain. He's dealing with all that plantar fasciitis.
Herbert's Status and Game Expectations
And, you know, I know they haven't, I don't think they've said anything yet. I haven't looked in the last hour. But Herbert still questionable. The spread opened at four and now it's jumped to seven. So, you know, do it that what you will. I don't think that means he's going to play, but we'll see. Herbert's a tough guy and this is one man where I just think a Harbaugh, that's all I'm thinking about. I don't know if I can lay the seven points even without Herbert because Harbaugh such a damn good coach. Yeah, no, I think you said it best. Seven and a half even with, you know, with or without Herbert is a big number. I give this. Kansas City teams been winning.
Kansas City's Recent Performance
They've been winning games, but haven't won a game by more than seven points this year, right. Have seven one and five point victory. So they've played in a lot of close games and that's kind of what they've been doing. Even looking back at last year, right. You know, Buffalo and Baltimore and then San Francisco, obviously in the Super bowl, all within seven points. So they've just been playing in a ton of close spread games. And like you said, you get a coach like Harvard, a guy that knows how to take specific players out of a game, who has a defense that has performed well this year, right? This the Sandy or. Yeah, the Chargers, the not San Diego, LA defense has been really good.
Chargers Defense Challenges
Six and yards given up this year. They're only given up eleven points per game. So they'll be sure to make it hard on my homes, you know, to try to keep this one close. I get that offense hasn't really lived up to expectations, but they got the one two punch with JK and Gus Edwards, you know, two guys coming over from Baltimore. You know all about those guys. Both of them can take over a game in any instance. So, yeah, I think Kansas City wins this game, but still over a touchdown, you know, in that half, number seven and a half. It's really hard to lay that, I think, with this Kansas City team right now. So I'll, yeah, I'll stay away from this one. Think this one might fall within that seven and a half points.
Game Dynamics and Predictions
So I don't know. It is a really hard one. But even, you know, if Herbert doesn't go, you get Heinecke going there. We've seen him make some plays, keep some games close. So I'm going to stay away. It's too hard for me to take that seven and a half. And like I said, I think Kansas City wins this one. If you want to put them in their money line in a big parlay or something, even tease them down to one and a half, you know, I don't think that's a bad spot, but going to be a stay away on this bread for me. Yeah, I don't, I'd have to pull up the odds on that, but chiefs to win by one to seven points or something like that. A lot of these books have those weird type of bets that could be a decent bet today because like you said, I think the Chiefs are going to win, but Chargers are, especially with Heinecke.
Heinecke's Impact and Upcoming Game
Heinecke is alive. Live dog is a backup. We've seen him go in there a bunch of times and, you know, pull off big upsets. He took Brady toe toe in that one playoff game. So, yeah, that's definitely one. Keep an eye out for the injury report later in the day and see what Herbert's looking like last game on the slate. Let's jump into this Sunday Night football game. The Bills travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. The Ravens are laying two and a half points at home. In this one. You get a total of 46. And this is another one, guys. We should be in store for a really good game. Hopefully this one goes down to the wire and we get another classic Sunday night football game.
Game Predictions and Expectations
But, smitty, I'll start with you in this one, man. Anything that you'd like in here. What are you going to have some action on tonight? Yeah, this is one that if it were, if this were a 01:00 game or even a 430 game, I'd be fully okay with sitting back and just enjoying it because that's kind of how I want to look at this game. I just want to watch these two teams play. But of course, they put it Sunday night and that means that I got to put a wager on it and I really, I don't know. I'm not really sure where I'm leading wager wise. I think this spreads about right. I do think the Ravens win this game. I think, you know, this is going to be the toughest test for the Bills thus far.
Ravens' Completing Game Review
You know, the one knock on them through three games despite them looking really good in those three games is, well, really, who have you played? Right. You played Arizona the first week who I think is better than we thought coming into the year, but it's still the Cardinals. They go to Miami the following week and then the two injury happened. They played a lot of that game against the backup quarterback, but to be fair to the Bills, they were beating them before he even got out. And then last week they played the Jacks and that was just a, it was a no show game from the beginning. You look at the Ravens side, definitely played their most complete game last week against Dallas. Things got a little bit dicey in the end, but they were in control in that game and I think offensively there were some really good things that they did.
The Importance of the Ravens' Running Game
I like the fact that, and you can speak to this, Kevin, I like the fact that they run the ball. They ran the ball a lot in that game. Lamar was running, Henry was running. And I just think that when the Ravens offense is best that they're really running it a lot and they're getting yards on the ground and it opens up the passing game and they did that really well against the Cowboys. So I'd lean the Ravens in this game minus the two and a half. I kind of like the over two at 45 and a half. I know it's hard to like overs and prime time games, but I think both of these offenses are going to show out.
Offensive Expectations and Game Outlook
You know, I think Allen will have a pretty good game, Lamar is going to have a good game, and it's just one of those things, I think, where the offenses can outdo the defenses, but all four units on this field are pretty solid and I'm excited to watch this one tonight. Yeah, I'm kind of with you. I think it's going to be a really exciting game. I obviously the Ravens here and it's going to, it's hard to not talk about it as a fan standpoint, but more as a better standpoint. But like you said, smitty, when this Ravens run game gets going, it's just, it's really tough to stop and hopefully they kind of found their identity last week.
Ravens' Desperation for Victory
But you know, I just think that the Ravens are going to come out desperate again. We talked about it last week against the Cowboys. They had to avoid that zero three hole with Buffalo coming up, and if they lose this one, they're going to be one and three traveling to Cincinnati. And we just talked about how desperate that team is. And I don't care how bad since he looks, it's still a divisional opponent. You know, this AFC north, anyone beats anyone any time of year. But I think where I'm really looking tonight, I'm going to go back to Derek Henry over 68 and a half rushing yards.
Player Props and Predictions
I'm probably going to go back to my boy justice Hill. Look at his rushing prop, his receiving prop. You know, he's a, he's kind of the sneaky player in this Ravens offense. He's a big blue guy. He comes in on third down, catches the ball out of the backfield. He released Derek Henry. So I like Justice Hill a lot. Probably going to be looking at his props tonight. And Nivelli, what's your bet going to be in this one? I know I think you like the over in this one, too. Hopefully I'm rooting for the over. I'd love to see a high scoring game here.
Final Thoughts on Game Bets
Yeah, definitely lean the over in this one. Like Smitty said, it's so hard to take the overs in prime time just because of how those unders have hit. But I think both quarterbacks are going to be scampering, right? I think both of those will be good bets. I think Lamar's number is quite higher than Allen's number. I'm sure Allen's is a 31 and a half. I think he goes over that. He's been running the ball really well this year, right. The Ravens will be sure to get some pressure on him, but we've seen Allen hit that rush prop over and over.
Performance Expectations of Quarterbacks
It's been a prop, a popular, excuse me, play for us, and he's got 85 yards on the ground this year, averaging five yards of rush. He's always, you know, a yde pretty sure bet to get into the end zone, too. So Josh Allen, anytime, touchdown. A rush prop there. And like I said, I think Lamar uses his feet a lot tonight. Smitty, you talked about it. This Ravens seems really good when they get that rushing attack going, whether it's Derek Henry, whether it's justice Hill, or whether it's a design run for Lamar. So I think both offense will have fine success in this one.
The Defense and Turnover Battle
The Ravens defense has been really good against the run this year. So Allen's going to have to beat him through the air. The Baltimore is going to have to, I think, turn him over a little bit. That's been a big gripe with Allen in the past has been his turnovers. He's been better with it this year this far, but faces a really good, a really active and a really athletic Baltimore defense. So that'll be interesting tonight, the turnover battle in this one. But, yeah, I think both quarterback rush for a lot of yards in this one and I think we see some points.
Hoping for an Exciting Game
Yeah, hopefully we're in store for, you know, just an electric primetime game back and forth, both quarterbacks shining. And, you know, I'm kind of hopeful for it. I think it's at least going to be a good game down to the end. And, you know, like we said, pretty grimy NFL slate today, but there's still a handful of really good games in there. And it doesn't matter when you got bets placed right. That's what we're going to be tuning in for. You know, root on that parlay.
Wrapping Up with Future Plans
We'll tweet out a couple free plays throughout the day, Degens, and we'll be back live next Sunday at 1130, same time all season. And thanks for tuning in.
