Space Summary
The Twitter Space MORNING BLAST WITH @PiQSuite AND @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. hosted by PiQSuite. The Morning Blast with @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown offers a daily market analysis space providing insightful previews, customizable market information, and partnership opportunities with @PepperstoneFX. Participants engage with market experts, access valuable insights, and stay updated on dynamic market trends to make informed decisions and explore potential opportunities in the trading domain.
For more spaces, visit the Trading page.
Questions
Q: What can participants expect from the Morning Blast space?
A: Daily insights and market previews provided by @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown.
Q: Is the information aggregation platform free to access?
A: Yes, it is fully customizable and accessible for free.
Q: Who is the proud partner of the Morning Blast space?
A: @PepperstoneFX is a proud partner of the Morning Blast space.
Q: Why is staying informed about market trends important?
A: To make informed decisions and capitalize on potential market opportunities.
Q: How can participants engage with market experts?
A: By joining the daily market analysis sessions.
Q: What kind of news and analysis can participants expect?
A: Intelligent and insightful market news and analysis.
Q: Are there tools and strategies provided for market analysis?
A: Yes, participants can leverage market analysis tools and strategies.
Q: What is the main focus of the Morning Blast space?
A: Providing valuable market insights and keeping participants updated on market movements.
Q: Can participants explore partnership opportunities?
A: Yes, they can learn about partnership opportunities with @PepperstoneFX.
Q: How does the Morning Blast space benefit participants?
A: By offering daily market analysis and access to industry experts.
Q: Why should individuals join the space regularly?
A: To stay informed, connected with market experts, and potentially discover new market opportunities.
Highlights
Time: 00:15:42
Daily Market Previews Insights and previews of daily market activities provided by industry experts.
Time: 00:25:18
Customizable Information Platform Access a fully customizable and free information aggregation platform.
Time: 00:35:55
Partnership with PepperstoneFX Proud partnership with @PepperstoneFX for enhanced market insights.
Time: 00:45:29
Insightful Market News Stay informed with intelligent and insightful market news updates.
Time: 00:55:17
Engage with Market Experts Opportunity to engage with market experts during daily analysis sessions.
Time: 01:05:40
Valuable Market Information Access valuable market information to make informed decisions.
Time: 01:15:22
Stay Updated on Market Trends Keep updated on the latest market trends and potential opportunities.
Time: 01:25:11
Market Analysis Strategies Learn and apply effective market analysis tools and strategies.
Time: 01:35:30
Daily Insights and Previews Gain daily insights and previews to navigate market movements effectively.
Time: 01:45:19
Informative Market Analysis Benefit from informative market analysis to stay ahead in market trends.
Key Takeaways
- Get daily market previews and insights from industry experts.
- Utilize the fully customizable information aggregation platform for free.
- Learn about partnership opportunities with @PepperstoneFX.
- Stay informed about the latest market trends and updates.
- Explore intelligent market news and analysis.
- Engage with daily market analysis sessions.
- Access valuable market information from market experts.
- Understand market dynamics and potential opportunities.
- Stay updated on market movements and news.
- Leverage market analysis tools and strategies.
Behind the Mic
Morning Greetings
Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Let me turn my music off. Red hot chilies this morning because it is quite chilly. What day is it? It's Thursday the 12 September. Let me just get the legals out the way before old brown shoes turns up. Quite fucking how. Here he is. It is so as usual, nothing discussed on this basis session constitute trader investment advice or infers any kind of endorsement by PIQ Global Limited trainers PiQ or PiQ suite or affiliates, including the hosts, which is Mister Michael Brown and myself, Mister Ryan Paisy. Oh God, it's like a Piq crew in here at the moment. We've got two investors, we've got CFO always sending Michael Brown an email shortly. Oh God, it's all kicking off. How are you, mate?
Discussing the Day's Events
I'm all right, actually, mate, can you. Tell about your coffee? Oh God, that's just what I need this morning after one too many Guinnesses yesterday. Oh, did you? I'm actually making my way into town very shortly. I'm going to some drinks with the european energy exchange later on. Oh, I thought you were coming here to collect your debts. Well, rich Bernard's on his way. I'll give you a ask. Lack has been on fire. Anyway. You better move on, mate. Oh, I think I might have to at this point. Oh God, what happened yesterday? Tell us. Well, have you done your disclaimer yet? I have, mate. You couldn't. Oh, you have. Oh, I missed that. Right. Well, good morning, everybody.
Market Updates
Of course, all attention on the US CPI figures yesterday and that created a relatively choppy, albeit ultimately risk positive session as we had some strength coming through in some of the big tech names, the S and P 500 ending the day around one spot 1% higher, the Nasdaq rallying by over 2%. As I said, that initial downside that we saw after the CPI front, which I'll get on to momentarily reversing as the day went on, helped by some strength in the big tech names. Nvidia, for instance, closing around. Sorry. Don't tut. I know you've got hangover. But yesterday, a fantastic example of one of my favorite things that happened in markets, the difference between fast and real money. Fast money slammed on the CPI.
Investment Insights
Real money bought it back. There you go. Yes, absolutely. Indeed it did. Nvidia up 8% yesterday, its best day in around six weeks. And we saw that kind of, well, as you say, fast money and real money reaction pretty much everywhere else. Treasuries ending the day a little bit softer across the curve. Weakness led by the front end with two year yields rising around six basis points as part of a hawkish repricing after the CPI figures, which pretty much killed stone dead, the chances of a 50 basis point cut at the September 3 meeting next Wednesday.
CPI Analysis
At the headline level, CPI rose by zero spot 2% on a month on month basis and by two spot 5% on annual basis. That is the lowest annual rate since February of 2021. Turning into the core data, when you exclude food and energy prices, on a month on month basis, core prices rose by zero spot 3%, a little bit hotter than the zero spot 2% that participants had expected and the zero spot 2% prior. It was at annual basis, though unchanged at three spot 2% but nevertheless in line data and obviously that marginally hotter core number, really giving the Fed no reason to deliver a jumbo cut at next week's meeting.
Market Reactions and Interest Rate Projections
The market as I look at it this morning, the OIS curve is discounting just 26 basis points of easing. Now for the September meeting, that's three basis points this time yesterday. So a fairly significant hawkish repricing there. Further out, we now see around 104 basis points of cuts priced by year end, and that compares to 111 basis points before the CPI print yesterday. In terms of other market moves and bits and bobs going on yesterday, the dollar ended the day unchanged, although it was a bit of a roller coaster arrived when you look at the dollar index trading down to a low of 101.20 before rallying to a high of 101.80 and then ending the day pretty much back where we started.
Gold and Crude Oil Performance
Gold was also very choppy, although it ultimately ended up unchanged as well, around $2,510 an ounce. And we did see some firmness coming through in crude, which was up around 2% at $67.30 a barrel. In terms of other data and catalysts, yesterday we had a $39,000,000,000.10 year auction in the United States, a relatively solid auction there, which stopped through by 1.4 basis points. That's much better than the prior auction, which showed a three spot one basis point tail. We also had a few headlines in the chipmaker technology AI space OpenAI.
Chipmaker Developments
They are said to be discussing raising funds at a valuation of around $150 billion. We also had some news yesterday that the government in the United States, they are considering allowing Nvidia to export some of their chips to Saudi Arabia. So we'll see what happens with that. Are the chip makers going to become a sort of geopolitical porn over the next? Well, more of one. More of one. All right, carry on. Right. Can we set a rule about how much coffee you can drink before these calls?
Federal Reserve Updates
Sorry. Gold blend, mate. I'm fucking mad for it. Oh, God. And last but I know is least, there were some reports on the Fed yesterday. Of course, we had this trading scandal at the Fed. Well, it was a year. This is continuing. The Fed's inspector general wrote a report about Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic. He has violated some of the Fed rules on trading. Supposedly they did not find evidence of insider trading having taken place. I have to say that to be on the right side of the law.
Appearance of Insider Trading
But what Bostic was up to did apparently create an appearance of insider trading and acting on confidential information. So that story is not going away. And it will also be, I would expect, a question that journalists ask of chair Powell if they got any balls next week. Although. Yes, indeed. Although I would say, obviously, this is, I think, the second or third Fed official to have done this. Now, although the regional Fed banks are sort of semi private organizations that are a little bit of an arm's length from the Fed in Washington, DC, perhaps it's still not great, but it gives pal a little bit of an excuse and a kind of get out of jail free card, I guess.
Final Remarks
But you're right, it is still not great, let's be honest. But that is pretty much a lot. Thank you. Thank you. So very briefly, so we've got a couple of things that are in Andrew Hart's awesome little note they put out in the morning. So just following on from your Nvidia headline that you mentioned about the big old rise yesterday, they actually added $216 billion to their market cap, which is the fourth largest single day increase for any company in history.
Market Cap Highlights and Global Production
And it will come with the other. Three spots for biggest days, which is something to write home about, I guess. In uranium, they had the strong last 24 hours after Russia said that they may consider limits on exports of nickel, titanium and uranium. Although not mentioned in the story, but worth noting is that 22% of global palladium production comes from Russia, too. So that might be on the card.
Military Preparations and Clandestine Operations
So want to keep an eye on for that. If that's metals in your bag or there's a lot of uranium bros out there ft with a little scoop saying SEAL team six. Now that would be the clandestine US Navy commando unit and not some show at Sea World. They apparently been training in secret to help Taiwan if they are indeed invaded by China. I guess not very secret exactly. But also bear in mind that this is one of those things that, you know, you'd be shocked if preparations for big things like this didn't happen. It doesn't mean that they think they will happen. Also of note that tanker rates have been on the rise, taken a little bit of an uptick.
Saudi Oil Supply and China's Market Behavior
There's been rumors of China buying again, which ties in with a headline that we've had earlier this morning, which I saw on the awesome Piq suite via the awesome newswalk feed, that saudi oil. Sorry, saudi crude oil supplied to China is set to rise to 46 million barrels in October from 43 million in September. So people might get carried away and say, oh, this is a sign of a chinese recovery. It's more likely that they want cheap barrels because they have a shit ton of places to store it. So there's always remember that oil doesn't really go out of date. It's been around for millions of years. A few extra years ain't going to hurt first.
Middle East Tensions and Ceasefire Discussions
So just quickly looking at some headlines via our friends at New Skork in the Middle East, Hamas have said that they're willing to implement an immediate ceasefire based on the US's previous proposal. We've. Well, I've not seen anything at time of pixels, as newswort would say, of anything on the israeli side. I know, I hate that myself. Is anyone from new school? Probably not busy doing their own thing. Anyway, what else we got? The White House is finalizing plans to expand where Ukraine can strike inside Russia.
Global Military Movements and Economic Outlook
North Korea fired a suspected ballistic missile which fell shortly after takeoff outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone. Top chinese general is to visit the US Indo Pacific command in Hawaii in two weeks time as the two military step up engagement. So that'd be the second time. I think they. Well, this would be a meeting. I think they spoke two days ago. Finally. Oh, just one anecdotal thing that I saw on Reuters this morning, that US holiday sales to grow at slowest pace since 2018. So this could weigh on the whole, how strong is the consumer story?
Impact of Labor Strikes on Supply Chains
And finally, from. Oh, no, I've got two final things. Sorry. So not quite final yet. One thing I did mention yesterday was about this strike for the longshore workers, basically the ports going on strike on the east coast and the Gulf coast. Now, we had a story overnight and I've just retweeted it, basically saying that the unions of the west coast ports are looking that they might. Well, they're talking about maybe striking in sympathy. And obviously this includes the port of Los Angeles, which is the busiest containerized gateway in the US.
Potential Consequences of Simultaneous Strikes
Now, if the west the east and the Gulf coast ports all strike at the same time. This will be a huge, huge global supply chain foul up. And again, as I said yesterday, it comes just as the elections will be booting off, so this would be one to watch. I honestly think it's flying below far too many people's radars because as we said yesterday, I've heard one report saying they're looking for up to a 72% pay rise, which ain't going to happen. So that's one to watch.
Criticism of Industry Figures and Their Credibility
And finally, finally, I don't like to throw shit at people, but I will a little bit here. This guy, Gary Stephensh as Stevens, sorry, the city guy that, you know, lefty, that kind of. Not that politics means anything, but he wrote a book saying he's the best trader in the world or best trader at city. All of this bollocks. I've said from day one, along with many friends of mine, that if this was the case, my friends that have like a very experienced city, traders, brokers, institutional brokers, institutional bankers, would have known of him.
Allegations of Incredibility in the Trading Community
No one I spoke to, not one person even knew of him. I've said for a long time that I think it's absolute bollocks and he's talking out of his arse because his numbers and what he said just didn't make sense. And there's a piece in Alphaville this morning and from his colleagues, it's bollocks.
Introduction to Breaking News
So there you go. If it looks like a fish, swims like a fish, it's usually a fish. That's me done. Well, what you've actually done there, Ryan, is missed the biggest bit of breaking news this morning, which is you paid your bill. Mikael Arteta. No, Mikael Arteta has just signed a new contract. Bosh. I'm gonna go until 2027. I'm gonna go put me Gunnasaurus outfit on. Mini Gunnasaurus. Right.
ECB Decisions and Market Expectations
Anyway, away from the arsenal. There are a few other bits and bobs going on today, although it is gonna be quite a light European morning session ahead of the ECB decision, which comes at 01:15 this afternoon, fully expecting a 25 basis point rate cut to the deposit rate, which would bring that down to 3.5%. That, of course would be the second rate cut of the cycle after the first, which was delivered back in June just on the ECB rate decision, the ECB will today be reducing the spread between the refinancing rate and the deposit rate to 1515 basis points from the 550 basis points where it currently stands. This is a very kind of technical change in nature in order to.
Impact of Technical Changes by ECB
The ECB are trying to change the way that they actually manage market-based interest rates. And it's a change that the ECB communicated all the way back in March in their framework review. But just be aware of it because you may get some headlines doing the rounds later on. The ECB have cut the refinancing rate by 65 basis points, or whatever it is. That doesn't mean they're delivering a 65 basis point cut, and it's much more than markets expected. That is a purely technical change. The deposit rate is the ECB's main policy tool that is going to be cut by 25 basis points.
Policy Guidance and Future Expectations
The other tinkering that they're going to be doing is very technical in nature, and by and large, most participants can ignore that unless you're playing around in the eurozone interest space, interest rate space. In terms of policy guidance, the ECB are likely to stick to a data dependent meeting by meeting approach with no pre-commitment to future policy shifts, as has been the case for some time, continuing to focus on incoming inflation data and underlying inflationary pressures when determining the timing for future rate cuts. Of course, with it being the September meeting, we will get the latest round of ECB staff macroeconomic projections not really expecting too much by way of a significant shift in those forecasts from the last forecast round, which was back in June, perhaps a modest downward revision to the inflation profile.
Inflation Projections and Press Conference Insights
Currently, headline CPI is seen getting back to the 2% targets in the fourth quarter of next year. Of course, we're already at two spot 2% per the most recent data, so we may see that timeframe brought forward a little bit. President Lagarde will of course comment on all of that and answer journalist questions in the press conference at quarter to London time. I think the main focus here will be on, firstly, if we were to get any policy guidance, which is unlikely, and the second will be the degree of unanimity among members of the governing council. Obviously, we had those sources reports out recently where some of the ECB talks are saying the issues in Germany are structural in nature and not something that should be tackled by delivering rate cuts.
Challenges During the ECB Press Conference
So we'll see whether Lagarde comments on that later. Of course, the main challenge during Lagarde's press conference will be staying awake throughout the whole thing rather than paying attention to what she has to say. Other than the ECB, there's a few other things going on today. At 01:30 we've got a couple of notable US economic releases PPI for August, we're expecting prices to have risen at the factory gate by one spot 7% on annual basis. That's a slowing, quite a chunky slowing, actually, from the two spot 2% rate that we saw in July.
US Economic Releases and Other Notable Events
We also get the weekly jobless claims data initial claims expected to have remained unchanged at 227,000 in the week to the 7 September continuing claims. They're expected at one spot 85 million, a modest uptick from the prior one spot, 838 million, although note that neither of those data points pertains or coincides with the September non-farm payrolls survey week. In terms of other things to look out for, the US will be auctioning $22 billion worth of 30-year bonds at 06:00 this evening. We'll also hear this afternoon from the Swiss National bank president, Thomas Jordan, who of course is leaving his post at the end of the month.
Earnings Outlook and Conclusion
And in terms of earnings, the calendar is again light, although after the market close we will hear from Adobe, which may be of some interest to folk out there, but very much a case of the ECB being the main focus today. Awesome. Well, thank you very much for that, Mister Brown. I probably won't see you later. I am in town though, but as I said, I've got the European Energy Exchange drinks to go to, so if anyone is going to that, I know it's very unlikely, it's very niche, but come and say hello. I'm going on my own, so I probably need someone to hold my drink.
Final Remarks and Upcoming Events
Right, everyone that if you want, mate. Anyway, so what we're doing on that note, if you are trading today, keep it tight. We will see you all to Oldenhouse. Actually, meet myself and Helen Thomas. We're doing our political blast at lunchtime today, so get involved in that if you're around. I've just realized put the wrong time on the flyer, so I have to resend that one. But yeah, midday today in the UK time, so join us for that. If not, we will see you all tomorrow.
