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The Twitter Space MORNING BLAST WITH @PiQSuite AND @MrMBrown – Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. hosted by PiQSuite. Engage in the explosive daily market preview hosted by @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown. This space offers valuable insights on market trends, customized information aggregation through Intelligent Market News, and a significant partnership with @PepperstoneFX. Participants can expect daily insights for informed trading decisions, direct access to industry professionals, and a customizable platform for enhanced market understanding. Stay updated on market movements, engage with experts, and explore unique trading strategies in this dynamic trading space dedicated to empowering traders.
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Questions
Q: Who hosts the daily market preview in this space?
A: @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown conduct the explosive daily market preview.
Q: What services does Intelligent Market News offer?
A: It provides a free-to-access, customizable information aggregation platform.
Q: Which company is proudly partnered with this space?
A: @PepperstoneFX is the proud partner of this explosive market preview.
Q: What can participants expect from the daily insights shared?
A: Insights on market trends, analysis, and informed trading decisions.
Q: How can users utilize the platform for trading?
A: The platform offers valuable content aggregation for informed trading strategies.
Q: How often are market insights shared?
A: Daily insights are provided for staying updated on market movements and predictions.
Q: What are the benefits of engaging with market experts in this space?
A: Direct access to professionals for gaining insights into trading opportunities and strategies.
Q: How is the platform customized for users?
A: Users can customize the platform to enhance their understanding of market opportunities.
Q: What distinguishes this market preview space from others?
A: It offers a personalized and comprehensive market preview hosted by industry professionals.
Q: What is the key highlight of this space's partnership?
A: The significant partnership with @PepperstoneFX adds value and expertise to the market insights shared.
Highlights
Time: 00:10:45
Daily Market Preview with @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown Join for explosive insights into daily market trends and analysis.
Time: 00:20:33
Intelligent Market News Platform Explore the customizable, free-to-access information aggregation tool.
Time: 00:30:19
Partnership Spotlight: @PepperstoneFX Discover the valued partnership bringing expertise to market insights.
Time: 00:40:55
Informed Trading Decisions Get valuable insights for making informed trading decisions.
Time: 00:50:42
Engage with Market Experts Direct access to professionals for market insights and strategies.
Time: 01:00:18
Customizable Market Information Enhance trading knowledge with a personalized market information platform.
Time: 01:10:09
Daily Updates on Market Movements Stay informed with daily insights on market trends and predictions.
Time: 01:20:37
Exclusive Market Strategies Learn about unique trading opportunities and strategies from experts.
Time: 01:30:22
Comprehensive Market Insights Gain a comprehensive understanding of the market with industry professionals.
Time: 01:40:51
Value-Added Partnership Benefits Explore the added value and expertise through the partnership with @PepperstoneFX.
Key Takeaways
- The space offers a daily market preview with @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown.
- Intelligent Market News provides free-to-access, customizable information aggregation.
- Partnership with @PepperstoneFX is highlighted in this explosive space.
- Insights on market trends and analysis are shared daily in the preview.
- Valuable content aggregation for informed trading decisions.
- Opportunities to engage with market experts and stay updated on market news.
- Potential for gaining insights into market movements and predictions.
- Utilization of a custom platform for comprehensive market information.
- Enhanced understanding of trading opportunities and strategies.
- Direct access to market previews with industry professionals.
Behind the Mic
Opening Remarks
Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. It is Monday, the 9 September trust. Everyone has had a lovely weekend. I was working all weekend, which was not so nice. There's Michael Brown. Send invite, wait for him to accept said invitee and then we can rock and roll.
Greetings Among Colleagues
Morning, Ryan. Good morning, everybody. Good morning, Michael. 1 second. Bear with me one moment, please. Call us. Let me just get the. Oh, you right there. You're just sitting down. I was, yes, I was just purging. I don't know what all these groans were about. One sec, let me do the legals.
Legal Disclaimer
Nothing discussed on this space. This session constitutes trading or investment advice or indeed infers any kind of endorsement by PIQ Global Limited trainers, PIQ or PIQ suite of all its affiliates, including the hosts, which is Mister Michael Brown and myself, Mister Ryan Paisley. Did you have a good weekend?
Personal Weekend Sharing
I did, mate, yes, very good indeed, which pleases me. I was at the cricket on Saturday, which was good fun and then relaxed, sheltering from the rain. Well, Saturday was fine, actually. Yeah, a bit of bad light, but seems part of the course if you play a test match in September anyway, we won't go down that rabbit hole.
Weekend Reflections
Yeah, yeah. 5 seconds of the week for us to go off on a dance. What did happen over the weekend apart from cricket then? Well, let's go back to Friday first of all, because it was actually quite an interesting end to last week. Good morning, everybody. We came into Friday really with every market participant, to be quite honest, hoping that the August US labour market report would finally settle or at least give a much higher degree of clarity as to the debate over whether the Fed will deliver a 25 or a 50 basis point cut at their next meeting on the 18 September.
Market Participant Sentiments
Did you just unzip? No, I was zipping up my jet because it's quite cold in this meeting. I just wanted to check. I was like, don't worry, don't you worry. It's not one of those phone calls. And if anything, the picture did get murkier rather than clearer after the data that we received on Friday. So in terms of the jobs numbers, it was really a mixed bag.
Labor Market Insights
Well, we'll start with the bad news, which I suppose is that headline. Non farm payrolls rose by 142,000 in the month of August, below the 165,000 consensus, but within the range of estimates, which was from 100,000 to 208,000. While we're on the subject of non farm payrolls, the real bad news came in the revisions the prior two months worth of data, which were revised down by a net 86,000.
Job Growth Analysis
That now leaves indeed, and that now takes the twelve month average of job gains below 200,000 for the first time in three and a half years, which is obviously a further sign that job growth has continued to moderate in the, shall we say, neutral camp. Unemployment fell to four spot two from a prior four spot 3% as expected, and largely as some of the temporary weather related weakness from the July report was unwound.
Unemployment Rate Dynamics
And importantly, the unemployment rate held steady despite participating. Sorry. Unemployment fell despite participation, holding steady at 62 spot 7%, just off the cycle highs that we saw towards the middle of last year. So in terms of measures of labour market slack, pretty neutral. And then in the hawkish column, we had the average hourly earnings data.
Earnings Report and Market Reactions
Earnings rose by zero spot 4% on a monthly basis, doubled the zero spot in lie, while earnings rose on annual basis by three spot 8%, which is quite a significant rise from the three spot 6% that we saw in the July print. So a very mixed bag in that labor market report, I guess the doves can point to headline non farm payrolls growth continuing to moderate as a reason to deliver more sizable policy easing at the September FOMC meeting next Wednesday.
Doves vs Hawks
While the hawks will say, hang on a second, growth is jobs, growth is still ok, unemployment looks to be moderating a little bit, and earnings pressures remain intense, and we should remain attuned to the risk of inflation remaining a little bit stickier. So really you could frame the jobs report however you wanted to endorse what your stance was prior to the jobs report coming out.
Market Predictions and Outlook
My base case remains a 25 basis point cut. Markets are 75 25 in terms of 25 basis points, or 50 basis points at this point. But I think what's interesting is that investors now probably want more in terms of cuts than the Fed are likely to deliver, at least in the short term, and that could pose a little bit of a headwind for risk.
Market Performance Overview
And I think that's why we saw quite a grim performance on Wall street on Friday. The S and P down by one, spot 7%, the Nasdaq down just shy of 3% on the week. That was the S and P worst week since 2022. I think not helping matters was that we had some Fed speakers on Friday afternoon after the jobs data, and they were relatively non committal.
Central Bank Speaker Commentary
John Williams, the New York Fed president, made no comment on the potential size of the first. So Williams has done a bit of it. He was a bit of a twat, let's be honest, because he it's very odd that a central bank speaker or, sorry, a Fed speaker will schedule an event or a schedule that he's going to speak 15 minutes after NFP.
Expectations from Fed Officials
So if you're doing that, you're kind of thinking, well, he's going to say something about his view or what is going to be happening on monetary policy and all stuff like this. And he didn't. So the market, I think you can never quantify what's led to what moves in the markets. Well, very rarely can you.
Investor Anticipations
No. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of people thinking he's going to come out and like shore up the market.
Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators
And because he didn't, that was like, well, hang on, why is he scheduled to speak and then not said anything productive? Which would have, in my eyes, it could have led to some more negative sentiment. But then when you combine that with, you know, the other stuff that was going on as well, like the fake chat, GPT numbers and all stuff like this, I think there's just a lot of stuff that was kind of weighing on the market. And let's be honest, it's always good to have the occasional flush out in markets anyway. But anyway. Sorry.
Remarks from Chris Waller and Rate Cuts
Yes, absolutely. No, no, you're absolutely right. And I'll let you cover that Goldman Zach's thing on AI in a second because that's just farcical. We did also, though, on Friday here from Chris Waller, who's another sort of big hitter on the FOMC. His remarks were a little bit more interesting. He endorsed the idea that they need to cut rates, saying the current batch of data, quote, requires action and that it's important to start cuts at the next meeting. The comments from Waller did get a little bit of attention because he said, and I quote here, he will advocate for the front loading of rate cuts if it is appropriate.
Nuanced Understanding of Rate Cuts
But when you actually read the speech, and this is why it's important not just to look at what the newswire say, but actually to go in and read the speech yourself and digest what those policymakers are saying, it was actually a lot more nuanced than that because Wallace said before, if you read the speech before he got to that point, he said that the data we've received recently indicates the labor market is continuing to soften but not to deteriorate. And then later on in the speech, he said, if data were to show a significant deterioration in the labor market, I would be an advocate for front loading rate cuts. So what he's effectively saying is we're not there yet, but if we get to that point, then I'm happy to do more and go more quickly.
Job Market Trends and Economic Climate
So I might be misremembering something, but I do kind of, and it's bonkers how I remember certain things like this, but then can't remember if I've had breakfast or not. But I do. I do remember what day is it? I do remember hearing something about it might be him saying that basically we've just basically normalizing after being overheating in the jobs market. So he's kind of almost expecting us to have these kind of softer numbers because they were so rampant before. Yeah, absolutely.
Analysis of Recent Job Data
And also, let's just take a step back a second and we will move on from the jobs market momentarily. But if you just take in isolation 142,000 jobs added to the economy and an unemployment rate of four spot 2%, you wouldn't exactly say this is an economy that's screaming for massive rate cuts. That pace of jobs creation is not especially far off what were seeing in 2018 2019, which was at the back end of the last cycle when the Fed were just starting to talk about the idea of insurance rate cuts. We're not in too dissimilar an environment to that in my mind, at least.
Market Perspectives on Economic Indicators
No, exactly. I suppose it's all about not even the secret mandate, which is obviously keeping stocks higher. Stocks are still quite near the all time high, so it's not getting carried away on that front either. No, absolutely. It was a poor week last week, but it was by no means disastrous. Anyway, just moving on the job stator for a second, some of the other moves that we saw on Friday, we saw a rally in Treasuries led by the front end of the curve, with the two year yield down by ten basis points on the day, touching its lowest level since March of 2023 at three spot 6%.
Impact of Economic Events on Treasury Yields
Of course, March 2023 was when Silicon Valley Bank were in the process of blowing up. We also had the 210s curve that steepened into positive territory for just the second time this year and to its widest since the middle of 2022 at 6.5 basis points. So that will get all of the perma bears and recession folk on Twitter all excited and hot under the collar, I'm sure. We've also seen in the foreign exchange world the dollar continuing to trade broadly firmer after the non farm payrolls number. The dollar index reclaimed the 101 handle on Friday into the close, and we trade north of 101.50 in early trade this morning.
Foreign Exchange Market Updates
The Aussie in the Kiwi dollars, the biggest losers in the g ten world as sentiment remained relatively soft in terms of other bits and bobs from last week. We did have some employment data out of Canada on Friday that really just evidencing why the BoC are cutting rates relatively rapidly. Three straight rate cuts as unemployment rose to six spot 6% for a prior six spot four. So nothing there to deter the BoC from further such cuts at the October and December meetings as the market currently prices and a couple of headlines from over the weekend ahead of the first and potentially only presidential debate tomorrow, there was a New York Times poll out which put Trump ahead of Harris for the first time in a month, still well within the margin of error with Trump on 48 and Harris on 47.
Political Landscape and Economic Impact
But that is, as I say, the first time in four weeks that Harris has seen that poll lead slip. And the FT were running a story this morning yet more bad news for Europe. European banks. They are set for zero net mortgage growth in terms of lending this year. The previous record low was growth of zero spot 2% back in 2014. And of course this data comes ahead of the ECB decision on Thursday. We're expecting another 25 basis point rate cut from the folk over in Frankfurt. That's pretty much it.
Discussion on AI and Market Reactions
In terms of recap, I'm sure you've got some geopolitical shenanigans to go through. Yes. So firstly, let's work out how I'm going to start. Firstly, let's do the chat GBT nonsense. Yes, so Friday everyone got frothy. Everyone got frothy knickers over the fact that Goldman Sachs put out a piece which included a chart showing the demise of chat GBT, where basically the usage numbers fell off a cliff and it looked so bonkers that it obviously struck fear into the hearts of many. But it gave all those people claiming to understand how this market operates.
Misinterpretation of AI Data by Goldman Sachs
A load of people jumped on the back, the usual muppets saying that this is proof that they were right all along and AI is just a 1 minute wonder and all that bollocks. It turns out that Goldman Sachs fucked up because what they were doing is they were basing this traffic on just sticking in the URL into some kind of traffic site online and charting up the numbers. But what they forgot to do was allow for the fact that chatgBT changed their URL from chatgbt.com to chat. Sorry, it was changed to chatgpt.com from chat dot OpenAI.com, which obviously doesn't have quite the ring to it.
Revisiting Usage Metrics for ChatGPT
And if you include the new chat GBT URL the usage is actually increasing now. I have tweeted it, I will repost it as we speak. But I think the key thing here is no one's saying that news was the catalyst for the sell off we had. But again, as we said just before, you can't quantify these things as pointless even attempting set. However, based on the fact that all these chips and all these things which we know have driven up the market because they're all relying on AI, basically buyers, the fact that chat GPT had fallen off a cliff was obviously a really bad sign for chip makers and stuff like that.
Broader Implications for AI Market
Combine that with the news we have from broadcom, etcetera, I'd be shocked if it didn't have some element of kind of catalyst involved in that. Again, I think it just sums up the fact that you really do have to kind of double check your sources sometimes, no matter where it comes from. But, yeah, so, yeah, sorry, I was. Just going to say it just kind of opens the door to a little bit of a short term bounce in some of those AI names. That took quite a battery on Friday.
Market Overview
I mean, obviously the broader market was lower. The Nasdaq was down 3%. We're not saying it was Goldman caused all of the market sell off just so they can take the other side of the trade. But it was definitely, you know, one of many moving parts that now we all know was complete bullshit.
Market Sentiment
It's that whole kind of butterfly turns into a hurricane kind of thing just by, you know, these little bits of movements and sentiment and stuff, kind of, you know, they can escalate and stuff. Again, not saying this was the cause of the sell off or the reason why it came off, what it did, but it certainly didn't help matters. And the best thing is obviously the same old mugs that started pumping out about, you know, the demise of chat GBT, you try and correct them, you say, well, hang on, cough.
Media Reaction
Look at this. Obviously, you know, silence, crickets. No one cares because all they care about is a bit of doom porn that they can post up there. It's surprising. Well, it's not surprising, I guess. Depressingly not surprising. Depressingly not surprising how like positive good news or correcting bad news gets no traction anymore. But anyway, that's enough on that little story.
Middle East Developments
This go over to the Middle east, where it's a barrel of fun with our friends at News Corp. So Israel had been conducting some strikes in Lebanon. This was after Hezbollah launched a squadron of missiles. Their words, not mine. Lebanese media reported that the israeli army has targeted the town of Kafa in southern Lebanon with surface to surface rockets. Syrian media have reported explosions in the city of Tortoise tartus.
Geopolitical Tensions
Yeah, something like that. Yemen's hoofies claim they shot down a us drone conducting hostile acts over the Marib governance airspace. We had. I think it was an FT event where the CIA director and the MI six director for the first time ever, have been in the same room at the same time. How do we know it was then? Well, I don't know, mate. Was that a general question? It could be a stunt double. You never know.
Security Insights
Well, exactly. But they did have some quite good sound bites. For instance, one, the UK's Mi six head said he suspects that Iran will try to get revenge on the death of the Hamas leader. Remember the 48 hours, 24 hours, all that rose that we had straight after the event? He still believes that Iran will try and get revenge, but it's just a waiting game, almost.
Risk Assessment
The CIA director said that there was a genuine risk of potential use of a tactical nuclear weapon in the fall autumn of 2022. That's obviously in regards to Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine. But he doesn't see any evidence that Putin has lost his grip or his grip is weakening in Russia. We've got. Moving to Europe, we've got.
Political Developments in Europe
Starmer defends the decision to scrap winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners to shore up public finances and said he must be prepared to be unpopular. Well, he's a got that last bit right because everyone fucking hates him. I think someone made a good point where I think if you ran a poll now, Harold Shipman would probably come in ahead of Kia Starmer.
Public Perception
It might be worth googling that if you're not british, but. Yeah, actually, no, don't google it. At least not on a work computer. Yeah, true, true. Okay, moving away from that, we got our friend Andrew Hartz. Nice little note. He presented more than a couple of bits he's picked up on.
Debate and Trade Policies
Obviously, we got the. Sorry if this is standing on your toes a little bit, but we get Trump Harris's first tv debate tomorrow at 09:00 p.m. eastern. Some news over the weekend that Trump has pledged to put 100% tariffs for countries that refuse to use the dollar.
Global Economic Strategies
And Andrew's pointed out, and I think everyone else this morning has pointed out, that this is very much a shot across the broad side of the BRICS countries, which kind of the key ones are kind of stating they kind of refusing us dollars. So that's one to watch again. Bark and bite are two different things, so, yeah, just one to be aware of.
Economic Conditions in China
Also, he's noted something that I completely missed. I believe this might be in Bloomberg, but it's China's deflationary impulse. It's in the longest run in decades and strongly suggests the economy there is continuing to weaken with the broad measure of prices contracting for the fifth straight quarter. Everyone loves a bit of deflation.
Impact of Weather on Markets
We've got the OPEC monthly report tomorrow. Obviously, combine this with the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, which is very likely to strengthen to a hurricane early this week and create some storms. We're not looking for outright damage to oil and gas facilities along Texas and Louisiana coastlines, but we are expecting storm surges, which could mean some shutting in of refining and potentially some production quickly.
Commodities Forecast
Looking at copper, bank of America now forecasts that copper supply will be 15% lower, or roughly 5 million tonnes, than demand by 2030. And the bank also expects annual copper demand growth to double to 4% per year, driven by renewables grid infrastructure spending and renewables. Sorry, electronic vehicles. Sorry about that.
Manufacturing Concerns
Just finally from me, there's been VW and Renault chiefs have both been at it over the weekend, hitting the media, basically saying european manufacturing is fucked. That's me.
Challenges Facing VW and Renault
That's me kind of quoting them. That's not their outright quotes, but that's me kind of speaking for them. Basically, it kind of comes down to two things, as the VW boss says that the pie is getting smaller, but there's more people at the table. And what he means by that is there's a lot more competitors from Asia forcing themselves into the market, which is really hammering VW. And Renault picks up on the other side of the equation, which is the fact that the EU over putting this target for EU emissions, sorry, for CO2 emissions by 2025. And basically the way they're doing is they're capping the average emissions per vehicle that a manufacturer makes. So if you make 20 diesel cars or 20 petrol cars, you'll need to make x number of electric cars to kind of average out that emissions. Now, the problem is, as the Renault CEO stated, that there's no one buying EV vehicles, so they are well behind this target to get this down.
The Financial Penalties and Options
And it could lead to potentially 17 million. Sorry, $17 billion fine, because of this target the EU put in place. So basically they've got two options, but there's two options that we can see at the moment and that's either that the car manufacturers are screwed and they've got to pay these fines, which is probably why we're seeing, well, one of the reasons why we're seeing people like VW looking to shut up shop in Europe or the EU roll back their absurd target for EU emissions for car manufacturers. I think it was one of those things where the EU are trying to dictate to the market what you should be buying and just the people, the general public, just aren't biting, they're just not taking the bait. So that's leaving the car manufacturers high and dry. So it's one to watch. I expect we'll get a lot more headlines this week from the european car manufacturers, but you wouldn't want to be them at the moment. And that's all I've got.
Upcoming Week and Economic Data
No, you really wouldn't. Right. We will have a look at the week ahead then. In that case, you've already covered today, really, because that chinese data was pretty much the only thing worth bearing in mind. I will just mention, though, two things. Well, three things actually. One is that the Fed are obviously now in their pre meeting blackout period, so we won't be hearing from any FOMC officials until we hear from Fed chair Powell at his post meeting press conference on the 18 September. The second is that Apple, they're going to be launching a whole bunch of new products today as people who know me will know I'm still struggling to use this iPhone 15 that's in my hand. So God knows how an iPhone with AI is going to work. That kind of worries me.
Market Reactions and Apple Statistics
Interestingly though, Bloomberg again, I've stolen this stat from them. They said that twelve of the last 17 Apple iPhone launch events have seen Apple stock in the day in the red. So a bit of a buy the rumor sell the fact type reaction. And also just on the equity subject, we do have earnings due after the market closed today from Oracle. In terms of the week ahead, just to run through very quickly, what's happening is a little bit lighter data docket this week compared to what we had last week. Tomorrow the main event is going to be the UK labour market data. Unemployment expected to come down to four spot 1% in July. Earnings including bonuses expected to rise four spot 1% from a prior four spot five. When you strip out bonuses expected to rise by five spot 1% for a prior five spot four.
Government Data Insights
Just wanted to note on the UK earnings data. There was a story doing around in the Telegraph last week that the BBC had been reporting on some treasury briefing documents that were talking about the state pension in the UK rising by 400 pounds next year. The way that the increase in the state pension is calculated here is that it is done as the highest of inflation, 2% or average earnings growth. If the state pension were to rise by 400 pounds, that would put the average earnings number at somewhere around three and a half percent when we get that data out tomorrow morning. So I'm not saying that these treasury briefing documents are correct, but just worth bearing in mind that perhaps there is some downside risk to the earnings data when we get that tomorrow.
Upcoming Economic Indicators
Again, that reporting by the BBC and the Telegraph in terms of moving into the rest of the week. Wednesday we get the monthly GDP data for the UK. The economy expected to have grown by zero spot 2% in July compared to the stagnation that we saw in June. We also have the latest US CPI figures due on Wednesday. Headline CPI expected at two spot 6% for a prior two spot nine, the core metric unchanged at three spot 2%. Of course, this data referenced August and CPI has really diminished in terms of its market impact because the Fed believe that the job is effectively done on inflation and they are focusing on the labor market as the key determinant of policy at this moment in time.
European Central Bank Insights
Moving into Thursday, we hear from the ECB. As I alluded to earlier, the ECB expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to three spot 5%. That of course being the deposit rate, the market pricing a total of 60 basis points worth of cuts by the end of the year. And the ECB are likely to stick to their data dependent and meeting by meeting approach at September's policy decision. Just one thing of note is the ECB will be reducing the spread between the deposit and the refinancing rates to 15 basis points. So if anyone starts talking about all the ECB have delivered a cut of a huge number of basis points or whatever, just ignore it.
Market Expectations and Economic Forecasts
It is complete bullshit. To be completely honest with you. They told us they were going to be doing this in March. Also on Thursday we get the latest us PPI figures, weekly jobless claims from the US as well. And on Friday the week wraps up with the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. A couple of other things to note throughout the week, we do have some fairly sizable us supplier. We have a three year auction on Tuesday, a ten year auction on Wednesday and a 30 year auction on Thursday. And also, as I've just been helpfully reminded by Zach formerly of new squawk, our good friend, he has reminds me that Goldman, well friend, maybe not good, but friend, he has reminded me that Goldman are hosting their tech conference this year.
Tech Conference and Last Remarks
For those who are interested. If Tom talks cars is still on this call. Nvidia will be presenting on Wednesday, but nonetheless, that conference may attract a little bit of attention as well. And that is pretty much it for me this morning. Perfect. Well, thank you very much. I wish everyone a good, profitable week. If you are trading, don't forget, keep it tight and we will see you all tomorrow. Nice one. Thanks, guys.
