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- Daily market previews provide valuable insights for traders and investors.
- Engage with experts @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown for detailed market analysis.
- Stay informed about market trends and updates conveniently on the platform.
- Access a wealth of market information to make informed trading decisions.
- Benefit from a comprehensive resource for market-related news and insights.
- Learn about market dynamics from industry experts in a customizable setting.
- Enhance your market knowledge and stay updated on the latest developments.
Behind the Mic
Morning Greetings and September Reflections
Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. It's Monday. It's September. How is it September already? One sec. Let me just wait for Mister Brown to show. I apologize for the seagulls. There's Mister Brown. Invite his co host. Seems to be a bit of a seagull murder going on outside at the moment. He's there. Is he accepted? He's accepted. Good morning all. Good morning. Do you want to say good morning to the seagulls? They seem very close this morning.
Living by the Sea and Legalities
How are they again? Well, yeah. It's almost like you live by the sea, isn't it? It almost is, mate. It almost is. Right, 1 second. Let me get the legals out the way. I'm still not going to rely on the fact to remember these because let's be honest, I can barely read them. So this. One sec. I should have had this up already. I don't know why I didn't. One sec. You're typing them out as you go here. Well yeah, I do need a new keyboard. It's getting increasingly loud. Not the first to say that young Saurav has been complaining when I'm having my calls with him. But anyway, nothing discussed on these spaces session constitutes trading or investment advice or infers any kind of endorsement by PIQ Global Limited tradelist piq or PiQ suite or its affiliates, including the hosts, which is obviously Mister Brown and myself, Mister Paisy.
Weekend Check-in and Market Updates
So how are you? Good weekend? Yeah, not too bad, mate. Very chilled weekend. But as you just said in September now, Labour Day today in the United States and after that we're kind of back from the summer and markets get up and running properly once more. So I think it's going to be an interesting month ahead. Only 107 sleeps until Christmas. There you go. When does your job as an elf start? Wow. Okay. You've chosen violence this week, that's noted. What do you mean this week? You're very brave, my friend. Very brave. Go on. What's happening? Should we crack on? Good morning all.
Risk Assets and Market Performance
Well, we'll go back to Friday first of all, and then we'll get into the weekend. Yes, things did happen on Friday and it was actually a relatively solid day for risk assets equities rallying quite strongly. The S and P up by around 1%, the Nasdaq up around one spot, 3%. Of course, the S and P is within inches of a fresh record high, although of course us markets close today for Labour Day. As we just alluded to elsewhere on Friday, we saw some modest selling continuing across the treasury curve, which itself continued to steepen, with the twos tens closing Friday at minus one spot seven basis points, which is the steep pist since the 5 August. That comes as the ten year rose by four basis points for the fifth straight daily sell off, with ten year yields touching three spot 9%, which is a two week high.
Economic Indicators and Market Trends
In turn, the dollar continued to firm, with the dollar index rallying to a high of 101 spot 80. The dollar was firmer against all major peers, with the yen the biggest loser down around zero spot 8% on Friday and trading north of the 146 figure which dollar yen remains above in early trade this morning, we did also see some softness creeping into gold, which has this morning broken below 2000, which has this morning broken below two and a half $1,000 an ounce and is trading to a ten day low. That is of course spot gold, just to clarify. And Friday also saw some fairly chunky selling in crude, with WTI notching its biggest daily fall in a month, down about 3% and testing $73 a barrel. To the downside in terms of catalysts on Friday there was plenty of data, although I would question the impact of most of it.
Surprising Economic Data
Perhaps at the margin, the cooler than expected core PCE figures delivering a little bit of a fillip for risk assets. We had the core PC deflator coming in at zero spot 2% on a month on month basis in July, unchanged from the prior print. On annual basis, core pce came in at two spot 6%. That's just a touch below the two spot 7% markets have been expecting and also unchanged from the pace seen in June. We also had a slight downside surprise on eurozone inflation, which came in at two spot 2% on annual basis in August. At the headline level, that is the slowest annual increase since July of 2021 and should see the ECB really cement that case for a further 25 basis point rate cut at the September ECB meeting, which is coming up next Thursday.
Consumer Sentiment and Global Economic Cues
And the good news on inflation didn't stop there because the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, the one year inflation expectations component of that survey, fell to two spot 8% from a prior two spot nine, and that is the lowest level since 2020. So I think all of that really just helping to give risk assets a little bit of a boost into the weekend. In terms of other bits and bobs from last week, we had a modest upside surprise on Canadian GDP, the economy growing by two spot 1% on annualized quarter on quarter basis in the three months to June. That's up for a prior one spot 7% in the first quarter of this year, though, doesn't look like it will deter the BoC from delivering a third consecutive rate cut at their next meeting, which is on Wednesday afternoon.
Market Pressures and China Data Trends
In terms of news and data flow, on Friday it was relatively light. The only notable headline, and this is naturally what pressured crude, as I mentioned, was a whole host of Reuters reports citing six sources within OpEC plus that the cartel are likely to proceed with their planned production increases from October onwards. Of course, higher supply while the demand outlook remains a little bit anemic, that is naturally going to put downward pressure on crude prices. Indeed, economics 101 over the weekend we have had a couple of notable headlines, a couple of things from China that are worth bearing in mind. The first is the oh God. The first is the official manufacturing PMI that came in at 49 spot one in August, down from the prior 49 spot four.
Economic Observations and Chinese Data Skepticism
That is the fourth straight decline in the official manufacturing PMI gauge and also represents a six month low. Usual caveats with chinese data apply in that it is entirely made up. Exactly. But also worth remembering that if that is that rather grim data is what the nation are happy to release, how bad is it in reality? Our lingo and possibly our listeners lingo. It's basically like when your misses says how drunk are you? And you say I've only had a couple of beers, so you're admitting that you've had a few beers, but we also know you're absolutely lagging. Yes, exactly that.
China's Warning to Japan
Also from China, over the weekend Bloomberg were running some reports that China have apparently warned Japan of potential retaliation over some new curbs that Japan are trying to put on the chipmaking sector. This obviously following on, well, slightly following on, I should say, from the reports we had last week over the Dutch government looking to put in place some restrictions on how ASML operate in China. It appears that the Chinese are none too happy about that, which is not particularly surprising.
Regional Elections in Germany
And last but by no means least, there were some regional elections taking place in Germany over the weekend. To say it was a grim weekend for the ruling coalition parties, Olaf Schultz's SPD and the Green Party is perhaps an understatement. In Maxine, the CDU, which of course was the party of Angela Merkel, they won the regional election with 31.5% of the votes. The AfD, the alternative for Deutschland, the far-right party, they came second on 30%. Meanwhile in now I'm going to butcher the pronunciation of this.
Election Results in Thuringia
I was just thinking to myself, because obviously it's us holiday, the lads in news court haven't actually done a morning report, so we've got nothing from them. So I'm actually quite glad you're doing all this kind of geopolitical stuff, and especially this word you're about to try and pronounce, because I was going to just skirt right over the top of it. So go on. I'm sure you were, but we're going to go for it anyway, because in Thuringia, God knows where that is. The AfD actually won the regional election with 30 spot 5% of the vote, which is the first time the party has won a state election within Germany.
Political Trends in Germany and Europe
The CDU coming second there, the SPD third, and the Greens fourth. So sorry. In Thuringia, the SPD actually came fourth. In Saxony, they came third. So a pretty grim result there, obviously in keeping with the broader political trend, really, across Europe, which has been this kind of move towards right leaning, or, well, leaning. So far, they're falling over parties, obviously. We had the national rally in France, they still don't have a prime minister. The Netherlands had a big surge in support for far-right parties, and we're seeing this in Germany as well, I believe, although I'm not certain that there is a nationwide election in Germany towards the back end of next year.
Upcoming Political Climate
October seems like it rings a bell, but I may have got that wrong. So, of course, yeah, that's going to be a theme that perhaps comes into a little bit more importance for the eurozone as we move into next year. But that is pretty much it. And it's been a relatively quiet morning. Lab in the US. News flow is somewhat lacking this morning, but that's pretty much it for me, like I said. Well, thank you for that. Like I said, there's no report from newspaper this morning because the holiday.
Impact on Gregg's Business
So I'm kind of winging it from some articles from Piq suite. But firstly, just for Truman, because he did ask Gregg's. You know, I think without Truman, Gregg would be down a lot more than they are. They're only down 1%. So, Truman, get out and buy some more, whatever they sell in greggs. I've never been in a Gregg, so I'll leave that one to you. But just some headlines. You've never. Sorry, hang on. You've never been in a Greg, considering. I've never eaten a banana.
Personal Anecdotes and Comments
And I'm also scared of tomato ketchup. Are you surprised by anything anymore? Well, I should never step foot in a Greg. You're missing out. Well, am I? Am I really? I'll take your word for it. I can feel people typing as we speak, as we say this anyway, so just winging it with some headlines. Well not headlines, just news as well. Just further on, what Mister Brown was saying about what's happening in Germany, obviously, where the.
AfD Situation in Germany
I. Sorry, I. Where the AfD won. Well I say win or won. They scored the most points, basically they got the most votes, but they are unable to form a majority. The problem with this now is that even though they got, as I said, the most votes, all the other parties have come together and formed an agreement that none of them will form a coalition with the AfD, which this is not going to end well because it means that there's a lot of people that voted for the AfD and it's seeming increasingly likely that the AfD won't be able to form any part of the regional government.
Impact of AfD's Votes
Well this is a little bit like the french situation. Sorry to interrupt. This is it. No mate, you don't have to apologize. I interrupt all the time. It's what we do. It was what I do. So look, I'm not having a political bias here. I'm just kind of trying to be apolitical and state the facts. And the facts are that the people that voted for the AfD are very political minded in what they've done and they've done it for political reasons.
Concerns Over Civil Unrest
And basically a lot of this is down to immigration and stuff like that. Now if the other parties are basically going to ignore their vote and it looks like that's where we're going, there's going to be no real change, there's no going to be, there's going to be no political implementation of what the AfD was standing for. There's going to be no reforms and the voters will very easily come to the opinion that the political process has been hijacked by the elites. As one analyst has put it, this is going to cause some quite considerable civil, I'll go as far, to be honest, I'll go as far as saying civil unrest because I would be shocked if we don't see some quite major protests in those regions.
Broader Implications for Germany
So that's definitely one to watch. And obviously, as we know, it's the last thing Germany needs at the moment is stuff like this because they are pretty fucked at the best of times. Just looking further afield though, getting away from politics for once. One thing to note for obviously intel that stocks obviously trades in the US, which is closed today, but it was announced overnight that the CEO is to pitch to the board basically a fire sale of assets to cut costs.
Monitoring Intel Developments
So that's something to watch if we do manage to get early price somewhere on intel, I'm not sure where. Some of these big names do trade on smaller exchanges in Europe. So one to keep an eye out if you can have, if you have got access to prices on that, but that's one for you EC policymakers. I don't know if you've seen this morning, Michael, but it looks like. Oh, yeah, I want to have a round. I'll stop, I'll stop.
Insights on Monetary Policy
Thank you on that. Thanks for letting me know. No, no. Go on, go on fluffing work and warm them up for you. Get them slightly aroused on what you're about to say. Basically, obviously, we know September is pretty much a done deal, but it looks like there's some disharmony in the camps regarding October. But Michael will tell you more on that.
Interesting Fact on Chinese Population
And Piq's interesting fact for the day, or my interesting fact for the day, is that, oh, Alfred, fuck, I've lost it. No, got it, got it. Only 8% of Chinese are considered obese. Higher than neighboring Japan and South Korea, who are far lower than the far lower between like six and seven.
Obesity Rates in the United States and China
But in the United States, it's 42% of people are obese. And why I've said that is because there's an article out this morning saying that as the western influences are getting their grubbing paws into China, the obesity rate is starting to tick up. But 42% obesity, absolute fat facts gone. Gone, right?
Discussion on ECB's Doves and Hawks
Well, no, I will move on to the day and the week ahead in a second. But I did just want touch on this ECB thing because it has been getting a bit of attention on newswires this morning, I think probably because it's so quiet. Anything else to bother with? But the crux of the article is I've read it a couple of times, and the Reuters article and also the sort of Bloomberg summary of it. The crux of the article is the ECB's doves are worried about a recession and think they should cut rates more. The ECB's hawks are worried about inflation coming back and don't think they should cut as much. I mean, that's literally just the definition of what a dove and what a hawk is. This article doesn't tell us anything new.
Reuters and Opinion on the Current Analysis
I think what's happened is someone at Reuters has sat down and gone, oh, I've got fuck all to write. I won't have a bad word. Write this and we'll add the word sources in to add a bit of credit credibility to what I'm writing if. Anyone from Reuters is listening. I do not agree with Michael's assessment on this. And, yes, and we did get your invoice over the weekend and we will be paying that for this month's distribution license as soon as possible. Michael, what have I said? We need an editorial code. Do not slag off fucking Reuters. Right. Well, get them to write proper bloody articles and I won't need to slag them.
Future of Germany's Economy
One thing I did find interesting is some. Well, again, sources was basically, they were like, the angle that I was getting from it was that, yes, we know Germany are in the shit and in recession and we're going to hit a recession, quite a major one, but we don't think monetary policy is going to solve their problems. This is a multi year issue for Germany. So we're not going to be cutting on the basis of Germany in the ship, which if that is legit and we start hearing more of that. That's quite an interesting term because, you know, there's been a lot of people, including me, that are thinking that one of the reasons that they will cut is to bail Germany out. So that's one thing I. Let's see how that holds up when the shit hits the fan, shall we?
Critical Remarks on Labour Policies
Right. What else is happening today? Not a lot. Well, I was going to say, actually, just one other thing in terms of while I'm ranting away and I will get on to the weekend, is. No, there was a. A labour minister on the television over the weekend talking about this black hole. Once again, someone called Lucy Powell. Absolutely no idea who she is, apart from an absolute idiot. She was saying that if labor. Very polite there. Yeah. If labor didn't take this decision to cut winter fuel allowances, which I think saves about one and a half billion quid, which in fiscal terms is peanut.
Concerns Over Economic Statements
She was saying that. Yeah, she was on Sky News saying that if they didn't do it, there could have been a run on the pound and the economy could have crashed. And it's just absolute nonsense bordering on incompetence and bordering on dangerous at this point. And of course, we still have two months until the budget, so plenty of this crap. Way above inflation, pay rises whenever the unions asked for it. All this stuff you're telling me that we can't find 1.5 billion to like to basically make sure old people don't freeze to death? Come on, give me a fucking break.
Critique of Political Narratives
But the worst thing is. Right. So I'm glad you've mentioned it. Sorry guys, we're going off bit of a tangent here but it's quite important. Right? There's two reasons she said what she said, right? One of them is she is fucking thick as pig shit, right? The other one is she thinks we are all thick as fucking pig shit now, you know, choose your. Choose your team. It's one of those two because there is. That is the only reason you would say something as stupid as that.
Looking Ahead to Upcoming Events
Oh right. You better go on to the week ahead, mate because I'm. Yeah, I think we better but I mean that is just absolutely ridiculous and I think actually I haven't watched it because obviously we're doing this but it looks like another labor. The education secretary, someone called Bridget Phillipson has just been asked about that on BBC breakfast and I think she agreed with Muppet who's on tv over the weekend. So it's like the blind. Anyway, lastly on this, I have asked Betfair to make me a market or just put to start a market on the exchange for Kia Starman.
Market Predictions and Expectations
Not seeing out the full term. So it'd be interesting to see that I price it mentally in my head. I've got choice about 1.8. No, he does not see the full term so that's slightly odds on for those that aren't aware of digital odds or decimal odds. Sorry, I. Anyway, gone. What's going on? We shall see.
Market Status for the Week Ahead
Cool. All right. Yes. In terms of the week ahead, obviously we'd expect a very quiet day today. The US and Canada closed for Labour Day. Thinner than us. Hit up with me and liquidity. Exactly. As a result a lot of markets are closed. The markets that aren't closed you would expect not a lot to be going on. And that particularly holds after the London close, which is around about 404:30. After that you'd expect things to die out pretty rapidly.
Anticipated Economic Announcements
Having said that, we do have quite a busy week ahead. Just to go through the highlights day by day. Tomorrow we have the latest ISM manufacturing PMI figures due from the United States. The index expected to rise to 47 spot five in August for a prior 46 spot eight.
U.S. Labor Market Report and Upcoming Economic Data
Although of course the employment sub component of that index will also behead the us labour market report that we have due on Friday. Moving into Wednesday, we have GDP figures due from Australia, we've got services, PMI figures due from pretty much everywhere apart from the United States where the data is a day delayed due today's holiday. Also on Wednesday we have a policy decision from Canada. As I alluded to earlier, the bank of Canada set for a third straight 25 basis point cut that would take rates to four spot 25% in Canada. The OIS curve there pricing a total of 77 basis points worth of cuts by the end of this year.
Job Openings and Economic Reports
The market therefore implying that they believe the BoC will cut at each of the remaining three meetings in 2024. Also on Wednesday, we have the latest job openings data from the United States. This data referencing July expected at eight spot 1 million, just a touch softer than the eight spot 184 million that we saw in June. And we also have the release of the Fed's beige book of anecdotal economic evidence on a few points. Yeah, well, trust saying it's sober moving into the tail end of the week on Thursday we have the latest earnings figures from Japan. Of course, this comes ahead of the next BOJ decision on the 20 September earnings expected to rise 3% on annual basis in July, slower than the prior four spot 5%.
ADP Employment Figures and ISM Services PMI
Although I believe, and I'm not an absolute on this, that we have moved past at this point most of the kind of annual union wage negotiation rounds in Japan. So no surprise to see that metric fall a little bit. Also on Thursday we have the latest ADP employment figures from the United States, which if you're using to try and predict the payrolls print on Friday, go and give your head a wobble. We also have the weekly jobless claims figures from date Thursday. Those neither the initial or the continuing claims print will pertain to the August non fund payroll survey week. The most impactful release on Thursday comes in the afternoon in the form of the ISM services PMI.
Corporate Earnings and US Employment Report
That metric expected to remain pretty much unchanged in August at 51 spot five and just on corporate earnings. Although earnings season has pretty much wrapped up, with Nvidia obviously reporting last week, we do get earnings after the market close on Thursday from Broadcom, who are another big name and player in the chipmaking space. And then last but by no means least, the week wraps up on Friday with the main event of the week, which is the August US employment report. At the moment, headline non farm payroll is expected to have risen by 165,000 compared to the 114,000 we saw in July.
Unemployment and July Payrolls Reports
Unemployment seen ticking lower to four spot two from four spot 3% previously, while average hourly earnings are seen rising by zero spot 3% on a monthly basis for a prior zero spot too. Of course. Recall that the July payrolls report, which was substantially softer than expected, did kick off that latest round of over excitement over not only a potential 50 basis point cut in September, but also all these muppets coming out and saying the Fed should deliver an emergency intra meeting rate cut. So do just bear in mind that there is likely to be a heightened degree of sensitivity around the numbers that we get on Friday.
Effects of Hurricane Berrell on Payrolls
And of course the other thing to remember is that the July payrolls figures were heavily skewed to the downside by the fact that Hurricane Berrell made landfall during the non farm payroll survey week. Obviously that saw a significant rise in temporary layoffs, the biggest month on month rise since December of 2020. And now that the hurricane has gone, you would expect most of those temporary layoffs to be reversed, which should be payrolls figure. Sorry, just one last thing on that. Some sell side estimates point to somewhere between 30 and 40,000 of upside job gains as a result of just that temporary unemployment unwinding.
Discussion on NFP Data and Government Agencies
So do just keep that context in mind when we get the data. Something else to bear in mind. Obviously we've revision gate and all that bollocks with the NFP BLs. You're going to get the usual people going, getting all frothy knickers over the fact whatever the release is going to be and claim it's all bullshit and stuff. I don't know about you, my view on it all. Well, we know my view on the whole phoning up for getting the real results. I think it's just a good thing to do. I don't think there's anything on torn about that.
Critique of Perceptions Around Data Reliability
But in terms of the NFP itself and the BLS, all these people that are saying it's made up data and stuff like that, it's not to think that there's some massive conspiracy about who generates numbers and stuff. Things just don't work like that. It's just the simple fact that it's fucking hard to get all this data in one place at one time, especially by a government agency that you can't slag off how incompetent governments, government agencies are and then expect them to get all these millions of data points all lined up in a row perfectly two weeks after the month has ended or you know, after the period has ended. It doesn't work like that.
Understanding Bureaucracy and Data Collection
Yeah, yeah, no, I completely agree. Right. If you think that it like bureaucracy and you think the government agencies are shit, which, you know, they're not exactly the most efficient things in the world, then accept that the reason there are revisions is because you know the data comes in wrong, the data comes in messy, some data doesn't come in at all. They're relying on a million different fucking data points to come in to create this. So genuinely, anyone that can't, for me personally, it's a bit of a litmus test.
Discussion on Secret Trading and Government Policy
Anyone that starts talking about fake data and stuff, I don't care who they are. I kind of like mentally mark their card is like someone that doesn't really understand how things work. Like there's a very, I won't names because it's not my bag anymore. I'm trying to mature. But there's a very prominent person on fintwit that swears that like the Fed and all this have like secret kind of oil buying desks and stuff like that. I can promise you right now that does not happen.
Conspiracies and Their Plausibility
They either believe it themselves, in which case they're misguided, or people like that are misguided, or they're saying it for clicks and, you know, it's just absolute bollocks. But anyway, just also was, well, I. Was just gonna say on that one is I think both you and I are sort of usually the last people queuing up to give praise to government agencies, central banks and all the rest of it. But, you know, it is in a country of 300 odd million people and a labor force of 100, 6170 odd million to get any data on what is going on with that labour market three weeks after the end of, well, a week after the end of the month and three weeks after the survey is actually conducted is pretty damn good.
Comparison of U.S. and UK Labor Market Data
Particularly when you look at the ONS here in the UK. They've got a labor market that is about 20% of the size and it takes them two months and they still. Get on survey that you rely like the government agency, like the BLS, they're relying on employers to fill out surveys and stuff. Right? It's not, it's not like they're sending a guy round to every fucking place and like, oh, marking down and ticking people off. It's like if people actually took a second to realize the logistics involved in getting these numbers in one place at one time, it's unfathomable.
A Call for Understanding in Data Reporting
So come, you know, again, like you said, I hate the fact I'm saying this, but come some slack. Yeah. The other thing I would say on that, particularly on this secret trading desks doing nefarious bits and bobs, is you look at these organizations and were just talking about the incompetence of the government here in the UK and all that sort of thing. I mean, do you seriously think that these agencies would be able to keep this sort of thing quiet? And even if they could keep it quiet, do you think they'd actually be able to make it work? Absolutely not.
Conclusion and Data Update
Exactly that. Exactly. Well, I'm glad we're on the same page just quick. Anyway, that's pretty much it for the week ahead and we've gone on for a while, so I will stop talking. Just quickly, though, whilst we have been talking, just some data has come out. Both Germany and french manufacturing pmis have come out, both a tiny bit better than expected. But the expected was 42 for Germany, 42.1 for Germany, 42.1 for France, and both came in at. Well, Germany came at 42.4 and France came at 43.9.
Final Thoughts on Manufacturing Activity
So both. Fucking appalling, but slightly better than expected. Fun fact, the french factory activity has contracted in August at the fastest pace since January. So there's what that for you. But anyway, as you said, it's been a bit of a long one today and so we will give everyone a break. Like we said at the start of the show is Labour Day, so Finn and whisbey markets like Michael's Barnett. It. If you don't have to trade, just don't trade. Don't trade.
Advice for Traders
If you don't have to trade, don't trade. But if you do have to trade, keep it tight. We love you lots and we will see you tomorrow. Bye. See you later.
