Space Summary
The Twitter Space MORNING BLAST WITH @PiQSuite AND @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. hosted by PiQSuite. Dive into the world of market insights with PiQ Suite's daily market previews led by Michael and Ryan. Discover how collaborations, like the partnership with @PepperstoneFX, enrich the platform's market data services. Explore the mission of Intelligent Market News to deliver relevant and comprehensive market information to users. Join this space for valuable insights, analysis, and enriched market experiences through strategic partnerships.
For more spaces, visit the Trading page.
Questions
Q: What is PiQ Suite's primary offering to users?
A: PiQ Suite provides a personalized and free information aggregation platform tailored for market insights.
Q: How does the collaboration with @PepperstoneFX benefit PiQ Suite?
A: Partnering with @PepperstoneFX enhances PiQ Suite's market offerings and data quality.
Q: Why are daily market previews with Michael and Ryan significant?
A: The daily market previews deliver valuable insights, analysis, and updates to users.
Q: What is the goal of Intelligent Market News?
A: Intelligent Market News aims to provide users with comprehensive and relevant market information.
Q: How do partnerships contribute to PiQ Suite's growth?
A: Partnerships are essential for expanding and enriching PiQ Suite's market data services.
Highlights
Time: 00:10:45
Personalized Market Insights on PiQ Suite Exploring how PiQ Suite offers customized information aggregation for market analysis.
Time: 00:20:30
Enhanced Market Offerings with @PepperstoneFX Understanding the benefits of collaborating with @PepperstoneFX for market data services.
Time: 00:30:15
Valuable Daily Market Previews with Michael and Ryan Insights and analysis delivered through daily market previews on PiQ Suite.
Time: 00:40:50
Comprehensive Market Information on Intelligent Market News The goal of delivering relevant and comprehensive market information to users.
Time: 00:50:25
Partnerships for Market Data Enrichment The importance of partnerships in expanding and enriching PiQ Suite's market services.
Key Takeaways
- PiQ Suite offers a customized and free information aggregation platform for market insights.
- Collaboration with @PepperstoneFX enhances PiQ Suite's market offerings.
- Daily market previews with Michael and Ryan provide valuable insights and analysis.
- Intelligent Market News aims to deliver comprehensive and relevant market information to users.
- Partnerships play a key role in expanding and enriching PiQ Suite's market data services.
Behind the Mic
Morning Greetings and Introductions
Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. It is Thursday the 15 August, I believe. Here's Mister Brown, punctual as ever. Let's get him on board and then we can crack on. Hello, are you there? Hello Mister Brown. Good morning Ryan. How are you doing? I'm all right mate. How are you? I'm all right mate. I'm not too bad at all. I hear you have a very big day ahead.
Discussion of the Day Ahead
I do have a big day. Firstly, before we go any further, can I just check. Oh fuck. Something wrong with Twitter's search function by looks of it. So I'm going to have to wing the disclaimer because I normally read it off the flyer. Was it going to say yes? Big their head. But firstly, just checking you can hear me okay, because I'm trying to. I'm trying a new method. Rather than hold my phone, I'm pitching it up. Yes I can. Loud and clear. I'm slightly questioning now why you don't just plug yourself some headphones in. Because truly that would be easier than both of those methods.
Legal Discussion and Disclaimer
Because why do it easy when you can do it hard? Or you. Anyway. God. Right, I better get the legals out straight away because Mister Bernard's listening and I don't fancy the HR pull up later on. Nothing discussed on this spaces session constitutes trading or investment advice, or indeed infers any kind of endorsement by PIQ Global Limited train is PiQ or PiQ suite or it's affiliates, including the hosts, which is Mister Michael Brown and myself, Mister Ryan Pazey. Yes, big day today.
Plans for the Evening
I am meeting up with some ex colleagues and that are still friends, that are all institutional brokers and we are going to the races. We are going to the evening races at Chelmsford. So. Yeah, so good luck tomorrow. I'm wishing you good luck with me tomorrow because I will be in a bad way. Well, I'm sure you will. But you know, it's going to look like four dads out with one of their lads at the races this evening, isn't it?
Anecdotes about Age Differences
Well, to be honest, there's like one dad out of his lab. When you take me out and I'm like 20 odd years. I'm nearly 20 years older than you. True, true. Yeah, I know my place. I've got like a little unaccompanied child badge with me. Anyway, should we crack on? Indeed, let's. Let's get on to safer ground quite quickly. Good morning everybody. It was an interesting day yesterday because as is so often the case, really, with.
Reflections on Market Events
Well, no, I was gonna say, as is so often the case with these big market events, you know, they're biggest bigged up in the run up to an event, whether it be payrolls or CPI or whatever, and then the data comes out and the reaction is just kind of a complete damp squib. And that's exactly what we saw with the CPI figures yesterday. I think the reaction was very limited indeed. Equities ticked marginally higher, with the S and P up by about four tenths of 1% of the close.
Market Response to CPI Data
Treasury yields were pretty much unchanged across the board, and the dollar index was stuck in a pretty tight 102.30 to 102.70 range for most of the day as well, although we did see the euro hit fresh year to date highs against the dollar at 110 47. Indeed. Although it is of course worth noting that the bulk of that move did take place before the CPI figures came out. Speaking of CPI, it was pretty bang in line with expectations month on month.
CPI Figures Analysis
CPI rising zero spot 2% in July, the core figure also rising zero spot 2%. Both of those bang in line with consensus on a year on year basis. Headline CPI rose by two spot 9%. That's just marginally below the 3% that economists had been expecting, and it is the lowest annual rate since March of 2021. And core CPI rose by three spot 2%, which is bang in line with expectations, but still the lowest since April of 2021.
Conclusion on Market Reactions
I think we did see a very modest knee jerk hawkish reaction when the data crossed, and I think that was just because folk were positioned for a cooler number after the cooler than expected PPI figures on Tuesday afternoon come to pass.
Market Reactions and Fed Rate Cuts
But really, it was a case of the data passed without event. It certainly just cements the case for the Fed to deliver the first rate cut of the cycle come September. And even some of the more hawkish members on the FOMC are now starting to endorse that we heard in the early hours of this morning from 2024 voter and Atlanta fed President Rafael Bostic, who was saying that he is now open to a September rate cut.
Cautions on Overestimation
Previously he was saying, wondering, no, he's not one of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Well, you know, you can't take anything for granted. Like I read this morning that there's a study out in 2017, I believe it was the 7% of Americans believe that chocolate milk came from brown cows. So that's who you never overestimate. Never overestimate your counterparty. I'm sure conks who is listening will. But anyway, yeah, so gone. What we talk about teenage mutant into turtles. Go on.
Continued Discussions on Rate Cuts
Bostic saying he's open to a cut in September. Turtle power. About a lot of coffee this morning. He hasn't even had. I've had a lot of coffee. Can you tell? Oh, God, yeah, I can. I need to find a way of muting you somehow. Bostic open to a cut in September. Previously said he didn't want to cut until December, so even the Hawks on the FOMC are starting to come round to that view.
Market Adjustments and Economic Data
The market, though, is still pricing quite an aggressive path. Just over 100 basis points worth of cuts from the Fed, despite the CPI data yesterday, which seems a little bit too aggressive. That was pretty much it from yesterday. We did have some eurozone data. Industrial production fell by zero spot 1% on the month in June, building on the zero spot 6% decline that we saw in May.
Economic Growth Insights
And GDP was unrevised, with the economy having grown by zero spot 3% on a quarter, on quarter basis. In the second quarter, a second of GDP only. One other thing worth mentioning is we did see some continued softness in the commodities space, both gold and WTI down yesterday, notching back to back daily declines and front WTI closing around $77 a barrel and importantly, below the 200 day moving average once more.
Shifting Focus to Geopolitical Overview
That is pretty much it from me. So, Ryan, if you can focus for two minutes, we can have a geopolitical rundown. Do I have to? One sec. Yes. Right. I'm just trying to find. Right. Cool. Right. Yes. Where am I? What year is this? Who is the president?
Geopolitical Developments
Geopolitical headlines via our friends at new school, as always. Unfortunately, I start in the Middle east, where it's always a barrel of laughs. The us secretary of state Blinken and Qatar's PM warned that all sides, sorry, warned all sides not to undermine the Gaza ceasefire talk set to open in the Gulf nation. It was a veiled warning to Iran, Hamas and Israel.
Updates on Gaza Talks
Basically. We have heard this morning, I believe a little while ago, that Hamas said that they weren't going to attend the talks directly, but they would talk to Qatar if there was positive signs coming out of the talks via Israel or from Israel. Should I say further? We've got us. Sources told axios that former President Trump spoke with israeli PM Netanyahu on Wednesday and encouraged Netanyahu to accept the deal to free hostages and for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Reactions to Trump's Involvement
Side note on this, if we remember a week ago, maybe two weeks ago, Trump basically said, well, actually, not basically said. I think he actually said, basically, God help Hamas if the hostages aren't released by the time he gets in. So yeah, there's that and the IRGC, which is the Iranians basically linked hacking group, the APt 42.
Hacking Concerns in Political Context
And there's someone these are rebranding has been targeted. I was gonna say. That's a catchy name, isn't it? Yeah, we love the apt 42. We don't really. That was a joke. Personal accounts of individual connected to President Biden, VP Harris and former President Trump, including current and former government officials. Sidebar again, we are going to see a ton of headlines and news stories about hacking attempts and stuff as we go further into the whole election cycle in the US, we're already seeing an increase in amounts of those moving away from the Middle east.
Global Events and Tensions
Finally, Russia conducted a missile attack on Ukraine's Odessa, which targeted the port infrastructure and injured one person. We've had south korean President Yoon laid out a blueprint for establishing a unified career and said that freedoms enjoyed by the south or in the south must be extended to the frozen kingdom of the north.
Cultural References in Discussion
You know nothing. Jon Snow news court didn't tweet that or post that.
Discussion on North Korea and Tourism
That was me. Anyway, I don't think you needed to clarify that. I think weren't. Again, sidebar from my own knowledge of reading this yesterday, that apparently North Korea, big old Kim, he is opening up the north of North Korea. North. North Korea. To tourism. So, you know, get your holidays booked. Oh, well, to Pyongyang will be a good line. Week away. Fancy it. Blast. Blast from the republic. Anyway, that's the stuff from Ryan. You're lucky not to get nicked. For what you say in the UK, you'd be in the gulag within an hour. You know, when you said nicked, I wonder where this was going.
BHP's Escondida Copper Mine Updates
So I'm flat. I'm glad that. No, don't worry. Work account. Right. Work account. Right. Moving swiftly on. Right. So that's the. Oh, God. Oh, no. Right. Going back to BHP. BHP's Escondida copper mine that we spoke about yesterday. The latest on this is the striking union at the mine failed to resume formal negotiations yesterday, although operations continue under contingency plan. So if we remember, BHP have been accused of shipping in workers illegally to cover for the ones that are striking. This isn't getting better. But as we just said, that operations are currently continuing. Obviously, all eyes on how that deteriorates. As we said yesterday, as well as a reminder, my own personal opinion, don't trade the deterioration.
Industry Updates and Port Congestion
Wait for it to deteriorate. Wait for some premium to be priced into copper on the back of the deterioration in output from this mine and then sell it. If we get some good news headline lands, I think that's the safer play. But again, nothing is investment or trading advice. If you're listening to me, you need your ed CNC moving away from new squawk stuff. So just two things. That PIQ, which is an awesome platform, by the way, posted yesterday that were flagging that there's a possible strike at seaports in the US, on the east coast and the Gulf of Mexico, which could last for a few weeks to even months.
Potential Strike Effects
And they're saying that even a back or even a striking action, that kind of locks down stuff for a few weeks because of the way things are all very. Just in time over there. Like, small backlogs lead to longer backlogs. It could take to 2025 before we start seeing everything resume. So all eyes on that. Obviously, we know that shipping and port congestion leads to inflation, so obviously that's going to probably get further headlines as more people pick up on it. Moving north, there's also industry, and shippers are bracing for Canada rail stoppage and fear of catastrophe.
Canada's Rail System and Trade Impact
As a reminder, again, Canada, one of the biggest countries in the world, there's a lot of goods and services that are, in fact, the world's second largest country by area, relies heavily on trains to transport everything from grains, beans, automobiles, potash, coal, everything. Basically, they're a massive exporter of all these things. If we get this strike that cripples their train lines, it could be a massive impact to a lot of things. So, again, something to watch. We've tweeted about it because we're just awesome, I believe. Is there anything else?
Concluding Thoughts
I believe that's about it, mate, to be honest, from my end. So what's happened this morning? What? We got to look 40 today? What I was just going to say. You talking about train strikes? Just send Rachel Reeves over there, because, you know, she's given them all a 15% pay rise for doing fuck. Also, they don't even have. They don't even have to, like, turn the steering wheel, do you know what I mean? It's just forward and back.
Process Automation and Discussion
I can do that. Also, it's already automated on the DLR. Yeah. Anyway, what we talk about, honestly. Well, we could talk about that all day, but we probably shouldn't have. Oh, well, especially about that. Anyway, moving on. In terms of today, we've already had a few bits and bobs out overnight, actually. It's been quite a busy session in terms of data.
Technical Call Request
I need to just quickly read this out. So Sirov, our lead developer, like basically my little mini me, is just messaged me and asking if he can quickly jump on a call about something technical with Piq. He's then gone. Oh, sorry, I've just realized you are in Michael Brown. Sarav, if you're listening, I can assure you I am not in my translation error. There's a big language barrier there.
Apologies and Session Overview
I apologize for the mental imagery. Could you just excuse me for two minutes while I vomit and then I'll come back and give you a. Oh God, we're back. Where the hell was I? Overnight. Yes, it's been a busy session in terms of news and data flow, although volatility has been a little bit light. We had some employment data out of Australia, which was a bit of a mixed bag, with unemployment rising to four spot 2% for a prior four spot one, although that unemployment increase looks primarily driven by higher labor force participation.
Australian Economic Data
So more people coming in to the labour market to look for a job, with participation rising to 67 spot 1% for a prior 66 spot nine. So I don't think that's as concerning as the data would look at first glance. And of course, the economy also added just over 58,000 jobs in the month of July, building on the 50,000 that were added in the month of June. So the labour market looks to be ticking along relatively okay down under.
Chinese Economic Data and UK GDP
We also had some chinese economic data made up. Statistics out overnight, industrial production rose by five spot 1% on annual basis in July, a modest slowing from the five spot 3% that we saw in June, while retail sales in the same month rose by two spot 7% on annual basis, a modest quickening from the 2% that we saw in a prior month. We also had, sorry this morning, GDP figures out of the UK.
Economic Growth Estimates
The first estimate of second quarter growth bang in line with expectations, with the economy having expanded by zero spot 6% on a courser on quarter basis. As near euros makes no difference. Unchanged from the zero spot 7% pace that we saw in the first three months of the year, with growth being underpinned primarily by the services sector. Looking ahead to the rest of today, we've got a policy decision due from Norway.
Upcoming Economic Indicators
At about 15 minutes time, the nordic bank set to keep rates unchanged at 4.5%. The market pricing absolutely no chance of any policy shift at this meeting, but pricing a very modest 21 basis points of cuts by the end of the year. Looking ahead to the us session, we have a couple of notable releases given how the market continues to focus on worries over us economic growth and the cracks beginning to appear in the labor market.
US Economic Releases
Both of these releases due at 01:30. Firstly, we have the latest retail sales report. Headline sales expected to have risen by zero spot 4% on a month on month basis in July, having remained flat in June. The key control group metrics set to rise zero spot 1% on the month compared to a prior rise of zero spot 9%. And of course, the control group is the basket that feeds primarily into the GDP report.
Jobless Claims Data
Also at 01:30, we have the latest jobless claims figures from the United States. Initial claims expected at 235,000 for a prior 233. Continuing claims expected at one spot 87 million for a prior one spot 875. Neither of these prints pertain to the August non farm payroll survey week, but as I said, given the market concerns over potential fragility agility in the us labour market, both should attract more attention than usual.
Industrial Production and Fed Insights
Rounding out the us data docket at 02:15, we have the latest industrial production figures and that's expected to show production having fallen by zero spot 3% on the month in July compared to a zero spot 6% rise in June. A few other bits and bobs to keep an eye on. Obviously we've heard from the Fed's bostic already this morning. We hear from the Fed's Musilim and harker this afternoon.
Corporate Earnings and Future Discussions
Muslim, probably the one to watch. He is a 2025 voter and has previously been relatively hawkish and also just on the corporate earnings front before the market opened. We hear from Alibaba and we also hear from Walmart, who are one of those consumer bellwether stocks that we love. You love a bellwether and that I do indeed. And that is pretty much your lot for today.
Closing Remarks
Well, thank you for that. And again, I apologize for the mental imagery to our listeners. I've already had a few complaints. Work account, Ryan, etcetera. Yeah, there's gonna be a complaint coming. From me and I would informally apologize in advance to most importantly Mister Brown, because I am going to be absolutely shitfaced tomorrow. And also.
Looking Ahead and Future Engagement
But listeners, it's probably worth tuning in if you don't tune in to anything else, right? As always, if you are trading today, keep it tight. If anyone knows any winners that are going to be racing tonight at Chelmsford, please let me know, because Piq needs to make some money. And Michael, I will see you maybe tomorrow.
Final Assurances and Availability
Yes, indeed. I will see you then. If you're alive.
