MARKET ANALYSIS & OPPORTUNITIES IN 2024
This space is hosted by WOLF_Financial
Space Summary
The Twitter space was specifically created to offer subscribers detailed insights into investment opportunities, providing in-depth company analysis and regular updates to assist subscribers in making well-informed decisions. Subscribers derived value from receiving comprehensive research reports encompassing financials, technical analysis, management details, competitive advantages, and weekly updates on market trends and company developments. The space’s primary goal was to empower subscribers by furnishing them with the essential information to effectively navigate investment choices in the markets.
Questions
Q: What is the main focus of the Twitter space?
A: Providing subscribers with detailed insights on investment opportunities.
Q: What do subscribers receive when investing in new companies?
A: Alerts, full write-ups, and equity research reports.
Q: What information is included in the research reports?
A: Operating metrics, financials, technical analysis, and management details.
Q: What updates do subscribers receive weekly?
A: Updates on holdings, market trends, and industry developments.
Q: How are the company’s competitive advantages highlighted?
A: By showcasing why competitors cannot compete with them.
Q: When do subscribers receive weekly updates?
A: Every Monday along with other event-specific updates.
Highlights
Time: 00:03:02
Welcome and Introduction: Overview of market opportunities and Alpha Target launch.
Time: 00:09:45
Research Offering Details: Explanation of Alpha Target’s research services and tools.
Time: 00:10:19
Market Volatility Insights: Impact of rapid information availability on market volatility.
Time: 00:22:31
Investment Focus: Importance of researching and investing in disruptive companies.
Time: 00:38:28
Earnings Expectations for Nvidia: Insights into market expectations and company guidance importance.
Time: 00:51:44
Tesla Discussion: Analysis of Tesla’s data advantage and investment potential.
Time: 01:06:16
Alpha Target’s Goals: Mission to empower retail investors with high-quality research.
Time: 01:13:28
Future Plans: Commitment to investing in technology, talent, and research improvement.
Key Takeaways
- The space offers deep insights into investment opportunities.
- Subscribers receive detailed research reports on selected companies.
- Information provided includes financials
- technical analysis
- and management details.
- Competitive advantages and company overviews are highlighted.
- Subscribers also receive weekly updates to stay informed.
- The goal is to empower subscribers to make informed investment decisions.
Behind the Mic
Thank you so much for joining the webinar this evening. A good morning and good afternoon to everybody that is dialing in from all across the world. We are absolutely delighted to have you guys with us today and we’re going to go through the topic of the post-pandemic world. Good evening, everybody. This is Puru Saxena. Welcome to the webinar. I’m very excited to be here with you guys today and as always, I have my friends and my colleagues with me, Evan. Welcome and both of you. Good evening or good morning or wherever you happen to fully be. Today is September 14th, nine minutes past. Thank you to everyone for coming in today or this evening for me or wherever the heck you are. Puru, let’s get this kicked off. Do you want to just give a brief overview of maybe your background and who you are for the folks that haven’t been on the call before? For sure. So for those who are not familiar with me, I started off as an analyst and then I became a money manager and I retired from the business in 2014 and I have been a private investor and retired from the money management business since then. And now I share my analysis and opinions and thoughts and insights with members of the Smart Money service, which helps particularly individual investors navigate the market. So to simplify the game of investing and make logical, rational and independent decisions, free from any emotions. My research is completely free of any conflict of interest and the service is aligned with subscribers and members of these services’ interests. So we provide a whole suite of research, analysis, monthly webinars, we state our own positions, investment portfolio and investment rationale, and our members can see exactly what I’m doing. So you signed up for the Smart Money that directly through the portfolio where they can issue all of your positions and stuff. Right, so they can see exactly what my positions are in real time. If the portfolio does well, then we will all do well. That’s exactly right. We’re very transparent. There we go, I’m getting stuff. We’re probably going to invest or bought a name, conviction buy which is our highest conviction because we believe that the stock is going up. Can you tell us what that means? Basically it means we’re recommending a name where we think the stock has high odds of success over the medium to long term. However, nothing is guaranteed in this business, and we will take losses, but all things being equal, when you make big money over the next several years, you have to take high returns. So you can see the track record, you can see the portfolios, you can see my individual holdings, et cetera, et cetera. They’re all aligned with subscribers’ interests. The other thing is in the latest quarter, we launched this new investment research product, which has been very well received. So we have two portfolios. We have the focus list and we have the performance portfolio. We have covered calls on our long positions. So basically I know that until now we could only take fresh new positions, but now we are using derivatives. So we issue covered calls to collect extra premium and extra income from our existing long positions, which have enabled us to navigate the turbulence so far very effectively. So covered calls is kind of a way to essentially collect additional premium on those long positions. Correct. Yep, that’s exactly right. So we sell calls after all. Okay. If our shares get called away, basically we will sell the shares at a profit. Okay, and you just have that be part of your strategy. That’s correct. Okay, that makes sense now. I’m like trying to remember back to, like, what that meant, and that makes complete sense. As I said at the time of launch, the idea is to make money, not only from stock price appreciation, but to generate extra premium from the portfolio. And then we can reinvest that extra cash or that extra premium in other opportunities which the market gives us. The family got small pieces of stuff exactly. Correct. OK, so Perry, I want to dive into all this. I would be remiss if I don’t do a quick PSA. We do want to mention a few things to get them out of the way. None of this is financial advice. None of you should be making any financial decisions based on this. And also, everything we’re discussing is for educational purposes. Everything that Puru is talking about is his own opinion, and it’s all of our opinions that you’re going to hear today. These are for educational purposes. Always do your own research. D-Y-O-R, as we like to say. None of this is financial advice. We just have to get that out of the way for anybody who needs to do that. So Puru, if you want to dive into today’s topic, I know you’ve prepared some material. Absolutely. Yes. So basically, we have fielded a lot of questions over the last several months from various people who had different questions on the back of this post-pandemic world. So last year, it was a relatively quiet year in the markets, and this year has been really hard for many people. And we’ve gone through this post-pandemic boom-bust period. And overall, this year has been really volatile. It’s been challenging for a lot of people, especially who’ve only been investing over the last few years and who do not really have a lot of experience in the market. One of the things which I would really like to iterate is that a lot of people who started investing over the last few years have only seen a brief window of this overall massive 10-11 year expansion which we’ve just gone through or we’re still in as a result of all the quantitative easing and the money printing that the Federal Reserve continues to do. So I think the first question I would have for me is, can you talk a little bit about the market’s performance this past year and what’s happened ever since the pandemic began? What would you like to start with? Sure, sure. So let’s start off with the overview of what happened. So basically, the market staged this spectacular, I mean, it’s unprecedented in size and scope, rally in 2020, 2021, thanks to the policies that were unleashed at the back of the pandemic. Similarly, to fight the Great Depreciation early 20th century, the policy makers flooded the system with literally a barrage and a wall of checks and easy money and stimulus, and basically everybody was given money. So all the asset prices floated since then. And the market did exceptionally well last year. And then this year has been a completely different ballgame altogether. Because for the first time in many, many years, the Federal Reserve has begun tightening its monetary policy. It’s happening fast. That’s right. Not doing it slowly. Right. So the pace of monetary tightening has taken a lot of people by surprise. So earlier this year, the Fed signaled that they were going to QE taper, and also they were going to raise interest rates a number of times, several times this year. And quantitative tightening would commence. So the easy money policy is basically history. And all those factors, the Q measures and also the fact that there is no stimulus anymore, Republicans and Democrats have basically stopped issuing checks in America. You know, here in Hong Kong, the checks have dried up. Across the world, the German government and the French government, I think they’re still doing it. But a lot of policies which we have, which Anja has brought, basically as a result of all the checks that were issued last year and the year last to last year, have basically printed us out. So this year, the windfall, the tailwind, and the unprecedented Global markets, crossed Global markets, are all appreciating significantly. Significant valuations, driven by tech and tech’s valuations in general. Tech and stuff like that. And now every Global market is being impacted. Easy money is comfortably finished. Fifty years of easing. Are we going to exit smoothly from QE? Right, exactly. So basically the era of free money is over. And now all the investors and money managers and policy makers, they all have to basically reorient themselves to a new paradigm, to a new world where there is no easy money anymore. Basically what I wanted to ask, how do you reset your thinking when something that tail wind happens and now abruptly, now that the spigot is shut off, how do you start to appropriately reframe or appropriately sort out your thinking? Sure. So basically over the last 10 13 years, remember after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, we had short periods where the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates, but in the 20 years prior before the Great Financial Crisis, interest rates have essentially gone down and down and down. So what has essentially happened is that multiples across the board, especially the equity markets now are it doesn’t matter which country you look at. You can look at Hong Kong, the US obviously, Japan, Germany, London. All the market valuations are significantly above the historical average because the entire period last 68 years, we have seen really low interest rates. And that is something which has a huge impact on valuation because when interest rates are low, the price being ratio obviously is higher. And so people have to pay more for every dollar of earnings or whatever. So the multiples automatically are raised when interest rates are low and conversely, multiples will contract significantly. All things being equal, when rates move up. People have not experienced life when interest rates were going up for any solid period of time. That’s right. So what is basically happening this year is for the first time that P is now being taken away. Everybody sort to speak, is struggling. But normally what happens is that people who started investing over the last several years have become accustomed to the major bull market. For the first time in their career or their investing time frame, they’ve seen the tailwind as you rightly pointed out, is now a headwind, beating their faces every single day. So for your question, what do we do? First and foremost, I would say investors need to be very careful because several call it stocks or currencies, or even real estate markets globally will struggle. I was going to ask you, do you believe that we will be returning to Puru I was curious on your take on this. I was going to ask you if we entered the new paradigm. What are the specific things you have to look for in this new paradigm? The first thing that you have to be aware of is that this new paradigm, which I alluded to earlier, is completely different to what we had seen last 13 14 years. So basically this paradigm is going to be like a reverse of what I believe we saw over the last 13 years or so. Because I think the largely secular bull market driven by low interest rates and free money and QE and all the measures which were a result of the easy money policies are now over. So what everybody needs to do is basically be aware of this and reorient themselves to this new paradigm where cash is no longer free or easy, so to speak. And secondly, invest carefully and wisely in companies which are not speculative. This is very important because if you remember, in the post-pandemic world, there were many companies which made no money, no profits, and they were overreacting this year are down 80% 90% in many cases. Are they going to come back? I seriously doubt that. I think it would be a huge mistake and people should not be looking to buy these so-called pandemic darlings because those were the fairy tales, stocks are over. We have entered a new paradigm which is going to be much more akin to what we had seen pre-GFC. I would say pre early to mid 2000s, where we had higher rates, higher inflation, it’s going to be a struggle period for many people. Basically focus on profit making forms with the strong balance sheets. Avoid speculation and balance sheets. Avoid speculative forms. And I think cash is going to be very important. Your cash flows and earnings become more important in the era of QE. That’s exactly right. So now it’s more important than ever to focus only on strong businesses. We have been making money with excellent cash flow is a strong balance sheet which are capable to weather the storm so long as you want to depend on them for the long haul. And it’s companies that have pricing power are going to be much more valuable. If you think about businesses which benefit from this inflation and there’s going to be this inflation going forward and what is happening with the energy crisis and the commodity shock. So those companies which can price products are going to do well and those companies which cannot price the product and have low margins probably won’t struggle. Exactly so. Thinking about where we’re going to head in terms is thinking who has the pricing power and who has the margins and who doesn’t. Absolutely right. I would not say that this is going to be end of the world scenario. I would just say conditions are going to be a lot tighter, the financing and short sellers are going to continue. Markets work both ways. The public investors decide everything better deliveries, at least in the United States. We do have some concerns in the United States related to Treasury and curb, things like that. And this I know that impacts the longer end of the curves than the shorter and immediately slowly changing. How do you decide how you want to change Comps and model fidgets based on entrance from the profit and loss slightly from half year? Absolutely. So basically I think the inflation is most probably have peaked this summer and the overall trend line over the next five, six months into Q1, the inflation will more than likely come down. However, before a variety of reasons, the inflation is probably going to remain elevated compared to what it was pre pandemic because we have energy prices and food costs. And also the fact and this is very important, we basically now have a lot more money in the system compared to what we had prior to the pandemic. That money isn’t gone anywhere. All it means is there is less stimulus. Of course the governments in the US and across the world are now not issuing checks, I told you earlier. But all the excess money that was issued over the last several months of course. So essentially what do we have has been lost in equities. A lot of money has been frittered away going into inflation. I mean, asset prices have come off significantly but I don’t for a moment think they’re going to be returned to the world which we had three or four weeks ago. However, on the other hand, I must also say that things aren’t going to be as bad as many people are claiming. The idea that property prices are going to drop 50%, 70% base in the next several months, we will be talking about this earlier. Basically the property prices are going to get hurt definitely because financing rates and interest rates have gone up significantly and people are still staying away from property. Property prices are still holding up People’s rents are still there. Check effect part of clarity. How do you think people would approach that especially being that they themselves have been growing up? That’s the problem. Or are just different factors? We need to remember especially in the US, there’s a significant shortage of housing and there is a significant amount of liquidity or savings, withholding savings in people so are able to basically whether these prices are higher. I wouldn’t say that. There are not poor people in the US who are going to get affected that will struggle because basically the subset of the population was going to undertake the biggest hits all the way into the next year of the real estate market. That is across the board. However, I would expect over the next 12 to 24 months there could be a consolidation in the house prices. Next one or three years just flatten out or maybe come down by 10% 15%. That’s particular compared to the huge run which we had seen over the last two years. We’re basically actually slightly dragged back. That makes complete sense. While we’re still there, we are definitely going to relay back to a paradigm where rates are no longer afforded affordably negative, that’s for sure. As I said earlier, the next few months and quarters are going to be a challenge because interest rates have gone up significantly. They’ve gone up fast. And central banks across the world, including the US Federal Reserve, are in meteorotic tightening policies and there is basically no choice they have with this demon inflation which is in the system. Unless they go extremely aggressive and they’re getting aggressive and people have called them behind a considerable amount of this doing what they’re supposed to have done. So I personally think Fed will probably go back to the next year sometime to reverse these. Begin cutting big time or perhaps back pedals somehow. It’s very difficult because the economy remains really strong. Jobs are bombarded in areas that people think it’s done. You can’t have a weakness in the correction which eventually has banks fertilizing either. So basically I cannot see the Federal Reserve or Bank of England which is now going to deviate from the presently tightening policies because wordly carpeting. However, you never know because there are many factors at play. The interest rates will stay high longer because this positioning is lasting for the next year or so of many people who are embarking on this idea of interest rates. Definitely lower basically along the curve. In fact, you basically have a very important point start to get replayed. QE essentially created a disingenued opportunity. Now market corrections naturally rush in which would scatter those money type guys in these next to the sidelines. Basically, starting with what you said earlier, assuming that the Fed will probably begin cutting interest rates I mean, for the tech employees it’s definitely going to happen. Afterwards, investors who do not have historical references in what stimulates the advancement and how to basically learn to navigate this new paradigm where best they get affected with suggestions for a product. Essentially any stock is in the price trends is more important enterprises. Privacy is something that changes – wait for the traditional companies calculations. OK, there’s a comment, several indicators I’ll take through like the fact that spikes in commodities are serious. I don’t think any new cycle was a throwback of more systematic brakes and therefore should be considered higher, particularly the hike market, low drive spikes. The second reason is basically to do with the fact that we had fingerprinted printed data across the board. Basically we have seen huge supply and change disruptions which are now normalizing supply chain disruptions directly. Gave you an increase in commodity pressing pricing goods right? So therefore we think we took inflation moderately but significantly it’s going to rain. One of the things that I think listeners would want to know is how we are planning to navigate this market which tends to what’s your hypothesis and how you’re interpreting what’s happening with the industry? That’s exactly right. So let’s just say commodity hyped inflation team. We have enough market opportunity to really share money. We need growing outlook. Exactly. Therefore this bunch of inflation grasp certain growing economics which place well with investors. Basically said energy and commodities well over multiple lane long term trend inflation prices important intrinsic miners inspectors’ portfolio. Things basically continue making sense to show what we perceive near terminal technical advances market’s long term. Inflation factors will invest accordingly, like get strategies aligned from economics views. That’s absolutely right. With the economic view with China motor stocks, reorientation translate. Basically manifestation markets inflation drives just about investing companies who stand to benefit commodity inflation and energy tech mining as a way that ties higher rates in. Rotations risk free efforts fit my current holdings windfall impact next these past seasons. Constructive gearing Angels cautiously. Pay off forward with exposure markets. Produce caution areas. Always remember chords. Broader sector government. Thanks cautiously safe. So the sample portfolio analysis. OK, technically inflated counted during speaking correctional volumes, thank you everybody. I really enjoyed this. Looking forward to hearing feedback big time. Always enjoy talking to everyone. Of course you’re going to join us tomorrow and then for the next five days. Looking forward
