Space Summary
The Twitter Space Cowboys @ Giants + Week 4 NFL contest strategy with @madrussianNFL hosted by kellyinvegas. The Twitter space delved into NFL betting strategies for the Cowboys @ Giants game, emphasizing the importance of player analysis, matchup dynamics, and thorough research in making informed wagers. Insights from @madrussianNFL shed light on expert perspectives and tips for navigating the sports betting landscape effectively.
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Questions
Q: How important is player performance analysis in NFL betting strategies?
A: Analyzing player stats helps assess performance, predict outcomes, and make informed bets.
Q: What role do matchup dynamics play in formulating betting approaches?
A: Understanding how teams match up can influence betting decisions, odds, and strategies.
Q: Why is in-depth research on game analytics crucial for NFL betting?
A: Researching trends, statistics, and historical data provides valuable insights for making smart bets.
Q: How can following experts like @madrussianNFL improve sports betting success?
A: Expert advice offers valuable perspectives, strategies, and tips for better understanding and navigating the betting landscape.
Highlights
Time: 12:05:17
Player Performance Analytics Exploring the impact of player stats and performance analysis on betting strategies.
Time: 12:15:40
Matchup Dynamics Insights Discussing the significance of understanding team matchups for successful betting approaches.
Time: 12:25:59
Research Strategies for Informed Betting Tips on conducting thorough research on game analytics to make smarter wagers.
Key Takeaways
- Analyzing player stats and performance is crucial for successful NFL betting strategies.
- Understanding the Cowboys @ Giants matchup dynamics can aid in formulating effective betting approaches.
- In-depth research on game analytics and trends is essential for making informed wagers on NFL games.
- Following expert advice like @madrussianNFL can enhance your understanding and success in sports betting.
Behind the Mic
Introduction and Setting the Scene
Hey, what's up, guys? Happy Thursday night. We've got the Cowboys Giants night, mad russian live from the Tampa hard rock. Of course, where else would you go during a hurricane? But there I am, safe, just south. Appreciate everybody's cause and concern. Jeff, did you win some money today? Actually, probably about a grand so far on slots. I don't normally play slots, but the wifey talked me into it. We had about an hour before we came on the show here today, so up a dime, probably will be down five when it's all said and done. Oh, boy. Well, I don't want to hear that. We had a great time there on Sunday after the Bucks game. While the Bucks game did not go my way, the NFL slot machine when I played the Denver Broncos, dead. So I will take that as a w.
Discussion on Betting and Game Predictions
Jeff, let's get right into tonight. Pretty much on the wager talk. Odd screen. I think it's pretty much five. I think all the five and a halfs are gone. Let me double check if I can get this to load really quickly and kind of see what your thoughts are on this game. The whole world is on Dallas, but I know those are types of things that don't bother you. But for me, I hate being on the same side as everybody else, and that is exactly what happened on Sunday with the bucks. Kelly, I was going to lay off the game, but you know the old saying went in Rome, right? And we're here at the casino having a great time. I'm going to tell everyone that's listening this is a lien. This is not a play. I didn't give it out to my clients, but I do have a lien on Dallas tonight. I don't really have a lot of depth into the reason why, to be honest. But I just feel as if, you know, they, we watched this team over the last, what, 10-15 years, and this is a game that they normally win. Getting back to two and two, I just feel like, you know, minus five is probably not enough.
Contemplating Bets and Rivalry
I thought the line would be more like six and a half. So I'm going to take Dallas again. Just a lean tonight, not an actual play per usual. Jeff and I are head to head. I'd like to actually see what our lifetime record is head to head here. I didn't take the five and a half earlier. There is still a five and a half available -115 at both draftkings and caesars. I'm sorry. -105 on each side. If you like the New York Giants side, there has been a really nice uptick in dogs this season, particularly divisional home dogs. Jeff and I just couldn't resist. I had to take a little bit here with the Giants. I did not use them in any of the contests and I have not placed a sizable wager. But we're going to go over now that the bad weather has passed, we're going to go over to the neighbors, watch the game, give myself a little bit of action.
Past Performance and Future Bets
I know you said you did not Kelly slay. Hey, Kelly, sorry to interrupt, but speaking of head to head, I just want to check and see. I didn't check the score. I didn't see the score. But you know how the Patriots did last week at all? I didn't check that. Yeah. Remember I had the jets and survivor. Don't worry, we've got some very winnable games available for us to push. I can't wait to push on five wins. It's going to be the most ridiculous push ever. And all of this is going to be for nothing, Jeffrey. Nothing. That's what this is going to give us. You have my money, Kelly. You have my money. You know, oh, my God. You are the worst. All of. If you ever guys get a chance to hang out with Jeff, whether he's in Vegas or in Tampa at the hard Rock, he is the man of many quotes of movies, none of which I know.
Quotes and Contest Strategies
It's kind of like doing the show with John Murray when he always seems to quote Seinfeld or always sunny or one of those. We'll see. Let's get into this week's picks. Jeff, I've got a handful of games I like in the NFL, but nothing I really love and how Jeff and I go through our contest strategy. Our team is called Kelly and Russia. Mad Russian Kelly in Vegas. And we kind of joked about it and the way we put it together. Jeff has a different style of handicapping than I do. And sometimes it works and, boy, sometimes does it not work. Last week and early on, I like the Bucks. And as game time started to approach, I started to hate it. But we do one non negotiable a week. So, Jeff, I'm going to let you go first. Give everybody your non negotiable for our contest.
Jeff's Bet on the Raiders
Okay, Cal, here we go. Raiders minus one. And give me about two and a half, three minutes here. Raiders being at home again. I feel like this is a great get right spot for them. They were actually humiliated by Carolina being a bottom feeder last week. I believe this team will rally behind their head coach Pierce.
Concerns Regarding the Browns' Performance
And I mean, he literally called their asses out in the postgame interview. And this isn't Josh Daniels calling him out, by the way. This is a guy that they actually respect, former player. And I feel like the guys are still willing to run through a wall for him. But some of the big reasons why is that the Browns are depth. They are, they are absolutely in trouble with injuries here. It's starting with their old line. It looks like Keller, the right guards out. Willis has reaggravated his knee. He's likely out. He, he came back from November. He's out. Coughlin hasn't even played this year, so I think he's trending out. And then their, and then their tackle. Hudson looks like he's questionable with a that depleted unit. Gave up eight sacks to the Giants last week, Kelly.
Injuries Adding to the Struggles
And they're also going to be without their free safety again. Thornhill, Najook, it looks like he's going to be out again. And the biggest concern is Miles Garrett. I saw a video of him riding off in a golf cart on his way to his car after the game last week. This guy has multiple leg injuries and he, if anything, he's going to battle through because he's an absolute animal and, but he's not going to be 100%. Not going to be 100% at all. But to me, I just feel like there's something severely wrong over in Cleveland right now. They lead the team. They lead the entire league and drop passes with 14. The Giants are next with ten after that. Packers six. To me, that's a tell sign to me that these guys literally, they don't want to play for Watson.
Discontent Among the Players
They just don't want to play for this guy and they're not going to put in the extra effort to make it happen. I just don't see it. So, you know, I'm hoping that Max Crosby can at least play through the pain like he did last week. He suffered a high ankle sprain in week two. But, you know, Pierce is going to have the boys ready tonight. I'm not tonight, but on Sunday. And I think that the Raiders are going to come away with a w here. So give me the Raiders minus one. Non negotiable. I lean towards the Raiders side, but, man, do they do better as underdogs than they do as favorites. Can't believe Carolina went in there and ruined a lot of survivors last week with that one as well.
Insights on Betting Strategies
Jeff, my non negotiable this week is the Arizona Cardinals. I love betting against what we saw last. Well, what did we see Monday night Washington? No defense whatsoever. Waltz is in the Cincinnati and gets the outright win as a seven and a half point underdog. I understand Jaden Daniels looks pretty good. I don't want to take that away from him. But this is a bet against that Washington secondary. They are going to get torched by Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison, and we'll see if James Connor can't get some yards there on the ground. I do like this Cardinals offensive line. If they can give Kyler enough time, I do believe that they can win.
Predictions for Upcoming Games
This looks like one of those types of games where we go on. If you remember, I love the Bucks against this Washington team. Same type of final 30. 513 would not surprise me. Jeff, who is your second team? You've got kind of waiting in the wings that you'd like to discuss. Okay, so this one's a curveball for you. Are you ready? Very, very rare that I lay this amount of points, let alone being a road favorite, let alone being a division game. And I just cannot get away from this one. The Chiefs minus seven. Kelly, the Chargers are coming in there. They lost both offensive tackles.
Challenges Facing the Chargers
They're both going to be out on the defensive side. Joey Bosa, hip injury, not going to be 100%, probably won't play. Derwin James is out on a suspension. I saw a little bit of line movement down from eight and a half to seven, meaning that I think Herbert, everyone saw him not walking with a walking boot. They're saying that he's making a lot of progress with his ankle. But my gut tells me, Kelly, that Herbert's going to be out for this game if I put myself in Harbaugh shoes. I just think that they're going to give him all this time because next week they have a buy. So why not just lay an egg here? Come back week six against Denver when he's close to 100%.
High Stakes Situations
If you look at all those five guys that I just named, Slater, alt, Bosa, James and Herbert, that's five first round draft picks that might be sitting out in this game. Even if Herbert plays, he is not good under pressure. He's ranked dead last pp under pressure that he was tied with Bryce Young being the worst couple guys that are in front of them. Caleb Williams and will Levis without two tackles. You know he's going to have a lot of pressure on him. I know my homes hasn't been himself all year, only average in 219 yards per game, five touchdowns, four picks. But I think with all the extra possessions, I think this is going to be his coming out party.
A Forecast of Game Outcomes
Kelly, I think this one might get ugly. I'm going to take the Chiefs in a runaway. Oh boy. I took the Chargers plus seven and a half. Yeah, here we go again. Exactly. Guys, this is the madness behind the mad Russian.
Thoughts on Herbert and the Chargers
Here's what I'm thinking. Whether Herbert plays or not, I love playing on these injured player theories right where the team is going to get up big. Why? Because it's a divisional opponent. I have lost more money over the last few years betting against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and of course those referees. But this is a different coach here. Brandon Staley is gone. This is Jim Harbaugh and this is a Chargers defense who's only allowed eleven points a game. I think the Chiefs are lucky to be three and oh, I'm happy to have seven in the hook. Do I really think the Chargers can win this game outright? Probably not, but I would not be surprised to see it be a 1410 final.
Upcoming Conversations and Personal Insights
Well, it sounds like you and I are going to have a deeper conversation on either Friday or Saturday. We'll probably drop that game because we're on opposite sides. You know, I love Harbaugh being a Michigan guy, so you know that this one's tough for me to admit, but yeah, we'll probably just stay away from that game with us being on other sides. All right, let me run another one by you. That was on my long list because that was funny. Those are the two games I gave out on. Bet on it. Arizona and the Chargers. This one's interesting because I've kind of bought in to this team, at least to an extent. And I think the problem is when a team is overvalued, consistently I want to bet against him and all of a sudden they become undervalued. And I go, yep, it's now time.
Analysis of the Chicago Bears and Their Performance
And that team is the Chicago Bears. And I said last year that it didn't matter if they drafted a new quarterback after how bad Justin Fields got treated, and I mean on the field because his offensive line was just awful. He got killed. He got sacked more than any other quarterback last season. And what have we seen with Kayla Williams? The exact same thing. Rams money line saved my ass right next to Jeff right after I I cashed the Denver Broncos slot. Jeff, you and I watched the Rams keep that last minute field going. I thought, let's go. I think this is a buy low spot on Matt Eberfluss. He is eleven and 26 as Chicago's head coach. He needs to go back to being a defensive coordinator.
Discussion on Upcoming Matchups and Team Conditions
That being said, I like them here in this spot. This Rams defense isn't anything to write home about since Aaron Donald retired. And you have a kind of a weird scheduling spot. Right. They had that late game Sunday night after they beat a divisional opponent. Now they go to Chicago early start time. Do they really care about this game? Of course they do. We always like to say that maybe certain games they care more, but hey, they're still possibly without Cooper cup and Puka Nakua. I think this Bears defense is worth laying the points over. Wow, we're going to have money. Go ahead and just slot me out for like 30 minutes on either Friday or Saturday.
Collaborative Process of Game Analysis
Is it going to be that type of conversation again? Okay, how about this for our listeners? This is, this is our method to our madness. Jeff and I have from time to time sent out text messages and just tried to find games. We've realized that being able to talk through these games as partners have been to our betterment as opposed to here's my two. Here's one we have in common. Here's your two. We got off games. We get on games. This season has been a rollercoaster ride so far. Jeff. Jeff went, what, five and two last week? I was wishing we'd have used a couple more of Jeff's picks, not mine.
Considering Coaching Dynamics and Game Approaches
Well, you know, it could be different this week, so let's not. You know, my whole thing on that one is, you know, McVeigh and Stafford versus Caleb, who hasn't even shown me that he can be a pro yet in Eber flu's. You know, those two head to head again. We'll talk about it more in the next day or two. Do you want to know how sick I am? I actually use them. John Murray and I use them in our splash survivor because we have to double. I am not kidding. It was between them and the Cardinals. And I said, I'm going to use the Cardinals for my personal. And he goes, you don't want to go double cardinals, do you? And I said, I don't really care.
Reflections on the Bears and Upcoming Strategy
He goes, let's go the bears. I was like, oh, my God. Probably not many more spots that you can take the bears, right? I mean, obviously, yeah, next week versus. The Panthers, but I think everybody will think to use them that week and they'll probably lose the game. Okay. There's lots of fun divisional games this week. What is one that you really like? All right, I'm going to give you another one. It's not a divisional game. Okay. But I, you know, I'm looking at this, the Steelers in the Colts game, you know, Tomlin is, you know, he's not great as a road favorite. He's 30, 43, and Pittsburgh rolled into Indy last year and got their asses handed to him 13 to 30.
Concerns Regarding the Steelers' Offense
Pittsburgh still 28 and, you know, in a passing yards per game, they're 24th and points and they're dead last and offensive TD's and I just feel like that luck is eventually going to run out. Their defense.
Game Analysis
Amazing. Off the charts. Only give it up nine. I just don't see a Justin field squad going four. No, you cannot. You can't live off from 172 yards a game. Two touchdowns in three games. You just can't live off that. Eric, you know, obviously Richardson's been brutal, but they found a way to win the game last week. Him going ten for 2176 yards, no touchdowns, two picks. They find a way to win. My stock that I'm putting into this is Shane Steichen. I'm a big fan of him and I think they're going to give the ball to taylor. 30 plus carries. I think the, I think the Colts might go back to back here at home. So give me the Colts plus one and a half.
Agreement on Strategies
Yep. We finally agreed that was going to be the next game that I brought. Nice. Happy that we're finally. I'm circling it right now. Oh, boy. Yes. Please circle it because it is going to be a rough one. Thoughts on my Denver Broncos? Jeff, last week you were on them and Bo Nicks looked like Tom Brady reincarnated. I mean, from that very first touchdown drive, I looked right at you and I go, I'm fucked. And I knew it. I knew that I was going to lose that game and so I had written it off very early. Tampa just couldn't get anything going offensively.
Uncertainty with the Broncos
They were just in a really weird spot. Denver looked so good and as I mentioned earlier, I like to play against teams that looked really good the week before. Do I think Denver can win four or five games this year? Absolutely. But I'm not buying Bo Nicks in this Denver Broncos upset just yet. Oh, by the way, yes, he had some touchdown drives to his receivers, but he has no touchdown passes. This is a Jets defense that we know is one of the best in the league. I think this is a tough road spot, back to back road games here for the Broncos who are averaging two turnovers a game. We'll see. I just find it very hard to believe they're going to pull back to back road upsets.
Discussion on Team Dynamics
Well, Kelly, you know, that team better than I do. I mean, that's your squad, right? So I can definitely back you on that. I didn't have either side, but I totally understand where you're coming from. You could see a letdown right here. The jets could run away with it quick. All right, give me one more that you like and that'll give us a list here to at least go off of after tomorrow's injury reports come out. Okay, here's another one. The packers cal at home. I just feel like the Vikings coming in four. No, I'm very confident that love is going to play in this game that lines two and a half right now.
Predictions and Betting Lines
I think when they announce it because he's been practicing, I can't imagine him not playing in this divisional game. I think that line might jump up to maybe three and a hook at some point. So I'm going to go ahead and take the packers at home minus two and a half. And if you are going to play that, I would try to get it in a little bit earlier before that line shifts because once it's announced, which I don't have an inside, but I just feel like he's going to play it. I think that line will bump up to three and a half. I like it. I am on the packers as well.
Wrap-Up and Promotions
I played them in a couple of different office football pools. So happy that we have a few. We got a couple more to sift through before we lock in on Saturday morning. Jeff, before I let you go, what do you have to promote over@wagertalk.com? Dot so right now, guys, if you guys are interested, I've got a package for $39. It includes my 5% play for this week. Probably will include at least four to five additional plays as well. If you use the promo code mad 20, it'll give you 20% off on any package that you decide to do. Again, I'm coming off a five and two week, which I feel real good about.
Reflection on Past Games
I've been 71% in the last 15. I'm really hoping that this train keeps rolling the right direction. Yeah, that Saints loss was really gross. I got to experience that one live with Jeff and of course two Eagles fans. We were just rehashing that one before I got on this call. Never want to hang out with Eagles fans. Guys, you have a bet on the other side. Third and fricking 16 and we're home. Third and 16. We got to listen to it on the radio as we're in traffic and I was so pissed I couldn't see straight.
Concluding Remarks
Not an ideal way to lose a six in one week. Five and two for the mad Russian. Make sure you guys are giving Jeff a follow at Mad Russian NFL. You can also catch him on wager talk today. We will be back here next Thursday. Appreciate you guys and good luck this week. Best of luck to everyone. Thank you again for having y'all. Jenna.
