#btc Runes chat with @GlassyMusic

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This space is hosted by MarkJTulloch

Space Summary

The Twitter space brought together various perspectives on trading, particularly focusing on crypto markets. The discussions delved into the crucial importance of timing investments correctly to maximize returns and mitigate losses. Participants emphasized the value of diversifying assets to manage volatility and shared lessons learned from past market cycles, noting the importance of adapting strategies as market narratives change. Psychological readiness emerged as a key theme, with speakers discussing how emotional control and preparedness can significantly impact trading success. Practical advice was given on leveraging historical data to inform current market decisions and on setting realistic expectations to avoid the pitfalls of over-optimism. The conversation underscored the continuous need for learning and adaptation, advocating for strategies such as Dollar Cost Averaging to handle market volatility. Additionally, the supportive role of community discussions was highlighted as a valuable resource for collective wisdom and shared experiences in the trading realm.

Questions

Q: Why is investment timing important?
A: Proper timing can be life-changing financially, whereas poor timing can have detrimental effects.

Q: How can asset diversification help in trading?
A: Diversification reduces overall volatility and risk by not putting all eggs in one basket.

Q: What is the significance of understanding market cycles?
A: It helps in making informed decisions, thus saving time, energy, and financial resources.

Q: Why is psychological preparedness important in trading?
A: It helps in managing stress, making rational decisions, and averting panic reactions to market changes.

Q: How can historical data be leveraged in trading?
A: Historical trends and data provide insights that can guide future market decisions.

Q: What role do market narratives play?
A: Narratives drive market dynamics, and understanding them aids in navigating different cycles effectively.

Q: How do realistic expectations influence trading?
A: They prevent unrealistic hopes, thereby fostering a more measured and practical approach to trading.

Q: Why is continuous learning important in trading?
A: The market is dynamic, and staying updated with new strategies and information is crucial for success.

Q: What is DCA and its benefit?
A: Dollar Cost Averaging spreads investment over time, reducing the impact of volatility.

Q: How beneficial are community discussions?
A: They provide diverse perspectives, support, and collective wisdom, enhancing individual strategies.

Highlights

Time: 00:10:02
Importance of Timing

Time: 00:20:20
Diversification

Time: 00:30:42
Market Cycles

Time: 00:40:55
Psychological Factors

Time: 00:50:15
Historical Data

Time: 01:00:35
Market Narratives

Time: 01:11:14
Learning Pace

Time: 01:20:35
Managing Expectations

Time: 01:30:40
Community Support

Time: 01:40:55
DCA Strategy

Key Takeaways

  • Investment timing significantly impacts financial outcomes.
  • Diversifying assets helps mitigate volatility.
  • Understanding market cycles saves resources.
  • Psychological preparedness is crucial for facing market fluctuations.
  • Historical data guides better market decisions.
  • Grasping narratives in different cycles is beneficial.
  • Realistic expectations are essential for success.
  • Continuous learning and adaptation are necessary.
  • Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is useful in volatile markets.
  • Community discussions provide valuable insights and support.

Behind the Mic

We did a season one project pitch last year with the Stacks Accelerator program. And then we evolved to think, hey, we're going to reposition ourselves more as a smart vault protocol for other builders to build on top of. And from that we'll be pitching again in their next pitch day. So yeah, they've been really supportive. Great. Albert Lang is the CEO and it's been really good to have a mentor, especially moving into a new subject matter. And you were talking about learning that was great in the last cycle, learning, hey, what is an NFT? What are all those unique and innovative ways you can apply that thinking and that technology? And with bitcoin has been equally interesting. Like here is a whole other toolkit. They don't have smart contracts. You can't, they don't just have a smart contract execution layer. This isn't something that's just embedded and designed into the VM. People are working towards that. And there's a lot of innovators that are looking to kind of crack that. But we're in such a wonderful experimentation phase. Like what a perfect time to actually redirect that energy. And I think you're exactly right. The VC money's coming in, the energy and builders are coming in, and there's plenty of people that are building in a way to figure out how do we actually leverage and unite and integrate so that all these incredible things that have been built already on Ethereum, we can start leveraging in one way or another into the bitcoin ecosystem. And I think the real force behind bitcoin, one of the biggest forces, is that there's so much liquidity that's just sitting there ready to be dispatched into new projects, protocols, trading, metaprotocols, whatever it might be just a stupefying number. And even that is so small. When you start looking at like bigger finance and institutional finance and like you look behind the curtain a few more layers and you realize how much money there really is circulating in the economy. Even how much money in bitcoin right now is tiny. But the amount that's been unlocked on bitcoin is even a tinier little fraction of a fingernail. So I think when we're thinking about the incremental, what does bitcoin unlock incrementally? How much liquidity? How much volume? How many new protocols or protocols from other ecosystems migrating into bitcoin to get liquidity? Those are the forces that I think are both daunting and catalyst, right? Absolutely terrifying and exhilarating simultaneously. And they bring people to the table, like for the first time, to deep dive in and say, where might there be an inflection point that I can actually capitalize on? Where might there be an inflection point that I can provide value to, that I can actually be a key participant in? To your point, too, from a personal development, you grow. I really felt like, at the end of it, it's like, wow, we want a sense of community, sense of belonging, even within the specific parts of the crypto ecosystem. Like, to your point, figuring out where you thrive at. And everybody has a different skill set and strength. And that's where I also think the monetary gain comes in. Is that if you become a core member and a known entity within a sub ecosystem, there's also going to be so many opportunities for you to make those monetary gains off of continuing to participate and becoming known. Not only from that direct deployment of capital, but also that continuing building of capital through other opportunities that start to come about just because you are a known entity or known participant. Yeah, some of the best early-stage projects all have that five, ten, 20 people that were curious enough to take the leap of faith and gamble on themselves a little bit. Or they just believed in it. They took the time to get educated about what was happening and they chomped down and bit into something that ended up blossoming into where we are now. But these newer things, like we're speaking about what's happening on bitcoin, certainly taproot, barriers, etcetera. Whether that's each individual dev team at a protocol level brings their unique skill set to bear or it's the earlier people who've already been around the block with DeFi and they understand what's on the other side. They understand the apps they want. They might have a preference for a type of protocol that they're really passionate about. And then they can, once again, develop that order book, develop that order flow, and take the best of, class of, some of those successful pieces from a like early stage perspective. Like you said, if you're early into it and then you ripple that effect of being early and being patient and allowing things to generate and allowing liquidity to be honored, all those things all come together. Those are the people that don't get distracted and see opportunities a little clearer. You're naturally going to make money as a result of actually being involved in the right level. Patience and involvement early on is one of the key pieces that a lot of people just missed. Absolutely. That's exactly it. So, yeah, instability and volatility rules the day, but just the same, the toolkit is great to build on. And being positioned in things like the first rune that ever got etched, the second rune, right, the 9th rune, I think there's something beautiful and historical about that from a collector's standpoint. And if you hold an exit at the right time, could be potentially life changing money. So I think for all those reasons, it's just an exciting time and if anything, also exciting because of anyone that just has been in the space and got beat up for the. For your entire bear market, that was brutal. For other people that maybe took profits at the right time, not such a big deal. Okay, we're going to dip down. We're going to accumulate. No big deal, but for plenty of other people that weren't maybe well positioned and properly, you know, planning these things out. Also, I think a lot of it, too, is aware of how narratives work cycle to cycle. Say that was something that I was ignorant to and would have saved me a tremendous amount of time, energy, aggravation, certainly money, certainly a ton of eth that was just really wasted because I didn't know that narratives change cycle to cycle, they generally don't carry over. And I think that surprised so many people when DeFi kingdom completely unraveled, for example, so many people were just stunned because there was so much belief in it that oh, this isn't going to change because it was so different. And I think that was a good example of a pivot point where it did completely change narratives, right? And people's expectations and belief. He was a big communicator of that early on. You hear it all the time that when he first was talking about, hey, there's a few cycles here. There's a bitcoin cycle every four years, the halving and everything else that goes into it amongst that and then the foundational faith building of all the little minor cycles in between, as you've said, learning to know and each of those micro changes, learning to see that, I think that's two degrees too peripheral to most people when they first hit it. Well, like you said, right, time in the market versus trying to time the market kind of thing, right? At the end of the day, you're best off learning to people sometimes unfortunately call it the hard way because you see what works and what doesn't work and you see some of what you can take advantage of more opportunities and less depending how the timing goes. But certainly, for sure, I think will too, the same idea is like sometimes people think, oh, they'll keep kicking ass for another six months. It's like, sorry, kid, oh, too late already. That happens and the person saw that, that gap, that delta, right, between seeing it happen and hearing it from your circle or your community that you rely on and people would information that echo all the same stuff. All those things are considered, right, and just recognizing that the plans that you make and put in place doesn't plan, you're almost better off in a community environment. You make very similar decisions around the same time versus being left to your own hand. And maybe you're surrounded and it's probably a mistake then timing out here with an unpredictable level of so much noise, being surrounded by a good force field of good decisions is always difficult. But to the point, you hit the top of the trees, the forest is clear, you're surrounded and you have to participate, keeps you involved. Agree a hundred percent, because it's like you kind of inherit a lot of those proven strategies and methodologies from being a part of that community, either because you choose to stick to them yourself or because, to your point, you saw it work successfully enough time, for other people on that osmosis effect, that you choose to adopt it yourself. Again, the excitement keeps going. I keep repeating we hold solidly on the ground things like, exactly, it's more organic for us to participate because you already see it as a determined thing happening, it's happening progressively and you're ready to pounce. So it seems to me that's kind of where we are, at least with ordinals and time chain right now. I think the order spots are speckled differently, depending on the approach and how they resonate for others, how you capitalize, if you miss them, they're still going to be a tremendous amount of expansion, improvement and creativity on from maintaining there right now. Where are we next quarter, where do we land in terms of the timeline, of where products, projects are going to end up for the time being throughout and how do we place those parts on the board? We kind of hold on to it anyway in terms of, previous experiences same timeframe, what we want, you know, seeing exactly those opportunities. And I agree, it completely underscores just kind of how early we are into this process because I think it's going to take time for things to crystallize. Even more so to your point about experiments that fully solidified applications building up, the community was taking time to build out in a big way surrounded by those possibilities. But as time marches forward, it's that degree of patience to build out that longer term strategy and even more. So much more time and more space for breath, exactly time and applied capability and recognition. I think that's probably one of the pieces that fits the broader picture, considering how quickly things are being adopted for the integrations and for the insurances that people rely on. Hands on, experimentation into mutually good nodes and good neighbors within the ecosystem. It's wild that we're on an opening edge of that experimentation that supports all these new classes of ideas and energy all the way around and seeing those scale themselves because of the longer life cycle of products, projects and all those things coming into the same time frames. Pure amazing things. Yeah, resulting that there's much more backing into stability and long lasting because they bring a solid structure that was already missing and with sets of common priorities and that resonates with the containing side productively, definitely going to help propel everyone forward. Much appreciation for the exchange of validation and learning that we've been having. It’s missing from most conversations, a lot of these spaces. Most active and capable tried wallets on bitcoin just exists now, maybe not as ready and sexy as Ethereum. Already being solved much faster considering the challenges and needs of things like Ultra stable coins, they can't get over it or you're just being overlooked in comparison. Now it's here, these are the things we’re seeing and makes you wonder just like, well, getting attention because of what's happening here, exactly. I think mission driven environments become mission loss, solved problem, find the best possible actors in the space, for simplicity, cracking the hard city, seeing expectations for the basics anyone nudge anyone capable. One of the other great things narrative to that entire experience is something like ordinal inscriptions. And so I reflect on the general design like, for the longest time, the cultural message was Bicoin, After taproot, miners agreed to major upgrades, they're getting into a transition network somewhat, always hard coding transactions themselves, the data here is new. So many narratives are at crossroads of bringing suppliers, accomplishing the overall user experience. And as you touch certain layers, the idea in comparison to actually solid trades was easier that withstood the initial Solidity code and forking into the blockchain, expanding the wide deployers is big this time cycle onboarding stake's pushing capabilities. I mean, the forces interoperating the community and seeing the craftsmanship around it's really breathtaking, developing working beyond and looking ahead of time, you better be understanding. Always educating, exactly. I think I always wonder too when it’s a mindset that prepared for bear markets, where deep relatives volatility happens in the cycle causes vulnerability, proximity among believers. And on one side I think agreed a bunch of other sides layers are getting compressed, leveraging crosses becomes people primary at a high price because it’s less worrying. Concentrated enough for what’s next and what to tackle together. I remember most challenging assumption closed off our risks aligned with new things, tolerant echoed their synergies becoming a predominant challenge. We stabilize definitely with better communities and systems with frictionless bottom lines transitioning to other participants. A big plus, right. Plus, yes. I still am in and challenging those again assumptions around, knowing, timed discovery talking how smart we all believe the transition’s providing. All codes and capabilities will generally just embedded and in the right communities. We deal with good high-quality community groups live rather than outside degenerative at all. I do close monitor one-person communities well enough time a connection on. We reach across layer additionals. It's strange that we survived these objectives. Carrying forward and deciding while the bear resiliency for the communities is understandable, amazing marking all code layers distributing, seeing, anticipating cool. Wow. While personal likely highlight much longer chaotic environments themselves expectations for what we ordinarily offer. Beta or stage themselves up. Imagine what happens in the next year. Imagining the bear forced really justified. End of cycle for most newcomers. Getting experienced lifting closer to given standards. 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