10月7日（月）21:00 〜スピーカー歓迎！交流スペース！ポストリプ欄貼付けOK！今回のゲスト出演はゆうなさん、タクさん

Space Summary

The Twitter Space 10月7日（月）21:00 〜スピーカー歓迎！交流スペース！ポストリプ欄貼付けOK！今回のゲスト出演はゆうなさん、タクさん hosted by GO5C5RCHNHG5GG. Enter the engaging space hosted by 10?7????21:00 featuring ????? and ???? with a focus on creating food-related content. Engage with the community, following the outlined guidelines for a friendly atmosphere. Celebrate the achievement of 20,100 followers and interact through replies to be part of this vibrant online environment. Connect with like-minded individuals, avoid inappropriate accounts, and enjoy the interactive experience provided by the hosts.

For more spaces, visit the Lifestyle page.

Questions

Q: When does the host conduct the weekly Thursday spaces?
A: The weekly Thursday spaces are held at 21:00.

Q: What type of content does the host focus on creating?
A: The host creates food-related tweets and videos.

Q: How does the host aim to foster a friendly community?
A: By encouraging interaction and setting guidelines for appropriate engagement.

Q: How can followers engage with the space?
A: Followers can interact by replying to the host.

Q: What action does the host avoid with certain accounts?
A: The host does not follow back accounts that are inappropriate or silent.

Highlights

Time: 00:00:00
Introduction to the Space and Hosts Learn about 10?7????21:00 space with guests ????? and ????.

Time: 00:15:00
Focus on Food-related Content Explore the host’s content creation journey related to food.

Time: 00:30:00
Community Engagement Guidelines Understand the importance of following interaction guidelines for a friendly atmosphere.

Time: 00:45:00
20,100 Followers Milestone Celebration Join the space in celebrating reaching 20,100 followers.

Time: 01:00:00
Interact via Replies Find out how to engage with the host through replies.

Time: 01:15:00
Engagement Etiquette Learn about the guidelines for appropriate interaction and follower engagement.

Key Takeaways

• Hosts weekly Thursday spaces featuring guests ゆうなさん and タクさん.
• Emphasizes food-related content creation through tweets and videos.
• Community building and engagement guidelines are crucial for a friendly atmosphere.
• Encourages interaction while avoiding inappropriate and silent accounts.
• Celebrates reaching a milestone of 20,100 followers with appreciation for engagement.
• Allows replies for interactions, following the guidelines outlined in the description.

Behind the Mic

Introduction and Expectations

What’s up, guys? Just waiting for Justin to get here and then we can dive right in. Just give him a couple minutes and we’ll kick things off.

Getting Started

Can everybody hear me? Perfect. Perfect. I was having issues this morning in my first meeting, so I just wanted to make sure. Hello, everyone. We’ll get started in just a few minutes. We’ll probably give about three minutes or so to let more people join. And, yeah, until then, I’ll, let me queue up some jams for us to listen to this fine Monday morning. I hope you have your coffee and your eggs and your pancakes and your bacon and your bagels and your toast and your poached eggs ready because we’re going to go through predictions in about three minutes. Sit tight, everyone.

Morning Greetings

Gm. Gm, everyone. Happy Monday. How is everyone doing this morning? Alan, creative, Al Rider, two cent, Timmy, no future. It’s a great panel. Doing well. Happy Monday. Excited to be here. Hope everybody’s doing good. Ready to jump into it.

Shifting Focus to Current Events

All right, so, yeah, so exciting week last week. Exciting weekend. Lots to talk about. Of course, we’re going to cover the 2024 presidential election because that’s what’s on top of most people’s minds. And it’s, you know, it’s, there’s a lot of volume on polymarket here, right? 1.3 billion in volume for the 2024 presidential election. We’re also going to talk about a hot topic on crypto, Twitter. Who is HBO going to identify as Satoshi? They claim that they figured it out. Of course, there’s a prediction market on who they’re going to say that it is. Are they? Right. Who are they going to say? We’ll talk about the Super bowl champs, too.

Exploring Key Topics

We’ve waited a couple weeks to talk about football again, American football. And so we’ll talk about that. And then another one is, will TikTok be banned in the US before May 2025? That’s another interesting topic revolving around free speech. And I think that 2025 timeframe gives us, I don’t know, a little, it’s an interesting timeframe and we can get into that a little bit more. But before we get started, you know, welcome to pancakes and predictions, everybody. You know, this is where we provide an objective and insightful analysis of the trending markets on polymarket and kind of just, you know, looking at the news through the lens of polymarket through this on-chain, verifiable data.

Discussing Predictions

None of this is financial advice, legal advice. We’re just kind of trying to get into the minds of the bettors as to, you know, why is the market trending a certain direction on these prediction markets? So, without further ado, yeah. Let’s get started with the presidential election winner for 2024. Looks like Donald Trump has had a little bit of a bump. He’s now at 51%. I believe that Trump and Kamala were tied neck and neck at, like, 50% last week. And I think even, like, the week before that, Kamala was actually up.

Analyzing Market Trends

So, it kind of looks like we’re seeing a small trend in a bump for Donald Trump in this market. And I think another thing to pay attention to and keep in mind is that, you know, typically when you’re looking at polls, you’re asking people, who are you voting for? And then with prediction markets, you’re asking people, who do you want to win? And I think, you know, could the president, the vice presidential debate, had any impact on these polling numbers? It looks like Trump is, you know, he’s still remaining competitive in these swing states and starting to lead some where it was a lot closer recently.

Public Sentiment Towards Candidates

And I don’t know, there’s a lot of polls that do suggest that Trump supporters are a little bit more enthusiastic about voting in general than Harris supporters. So, I don’t know, I just kind of want to open it up to the panel, kind of see what have you all seen? Why do you think betters are now trending towards Trump a little bit more now as per the prediction market? Remember the VP debate was wild. Like, I don’t remember that. Like, watching something, seeing a candidate kind of take an l. Like, dude, once you get memphied on the Internet, like, you know, Tim waltz is his face, like, that was like, an instant, like, oh, God.

Impact of Media and Public Appearance

Like, if I’m his campaign, I’m like, we gotta. We gotta drop something immediately. But also, dude, Elon, quote, tweeted polymarket odds, which is kind of insane as well. Like, that. That is like, who would have thought that we would see that? And that’s just massive for PolyMarcus. So shout out to them. But, yeah, man, I think it’s gonna be, like I said, I don’t think it’s gonna be as close as people think it is going to be, if that makes sense.

Continuing the Conversation

I know PolyMarcus says it’s going to be a tight one, but I would expect at this point, particularly after the hurricane and seemingly lack of support that the FEMA has given people on the ground. That also might be swaying people. But we have a couple hands or creative, you just came off new. We don’t have to do hands, guys. Everyone should be just jump in. That’s what we talked about last week, crypto and Alan, the vice president. Right.

Expectations and Results

I know I had the days mixed up like last week, but that’s what I was talking about. The vice president debate was going to change a little bit of the shifts. And usually, no one cares about the vice president. Let’s be real. But this time there are matter votes of what they’re saying because people want to know, tune in. People don’t know a lot about who JD is. People don’t know about Walt. So this is a good opportunity. And you saw what happened. Very dominant performance.

Recent Developments

And then also we talked about why it’s also trending. I think the big endorsement that you’re seeing on with Elon over the last, you know, 48 hours is a lot right now. So that, I think that’s why we’re seeing a little bit of numbers change, but we’ll see when people hit the polls. You know, I think also, was it the yesterday or two days ago, Elon and Trump, like, they revisited Pennsylvania, you know, the exact town in the town that the assassination attempt was happening.

Examining the Influence of Elon’s Endorsement

Elon, like literally endorsed him live and showed up as well, which I think was. That’s huge. That’s massive. I mean, Elon, you know, is, you know, not only this big influence of one of the richest, either a, the richest or one of the richest men in the world and, you know, one of the biggest humanitarians in the world. I mean, he has a massive following of people that believe in what he does and what he’s trying to accomplish.

Changes in Public Perception

So, you know, for him to not, like he even changed his PFP, I don’t know if you guys have seen it, but his PMP has changed. I think. Yeah, his PFP has changed. He’s got the maga hat on. I mean, he showed up to Pennsylvania in person. That is massive. I mean, that hat, that right there had to have changed some numbers and some votes on polymarket in itself.

Betting Influences on Trends

I totally agree with you, Ryder, except the one thing that I’m going to throw kind of a wrench into everybody’s kind of statements here is there’s also, because we’re betting, because it’s an odds and predictions markets, people might be playing the swings. Like there’s an advantage to, oh, you see, Trump going down is down at 40% or 42%. You can play that swing back up to 50 because it’s been kind of trending there for most of the, like most of the election cycle, somewhere between 50 and 55, and you can capture a nice, like, 1020 percent gain.

Market Dynamics

And so I think that also plays a part in why we’re seeing a 50 split on poly markets, because the election is close, even though I think there are a lot of people that favor Trump winning in a lot of these more kind of swing states. But I do think that the betting options in terms of just being able to swing in and out rather than being locked in does create that momentum. Yeah, it is interesting, too, because the VP odds for the debate winner, like Waltz, was favored heavily.

Surprises in Betting Markets

Like, if you had placed a bet on Vance winning before, you would have been thoroughly in the green or the black, whatever you want to call it. So it is kind of interesting to pay attention to that because, again, the betting market was actually wrong. And the other thing about Elon that’s interesting is when shit kind of hits the fan, look who they call, right? Like, the astronauts are stranded in spaceX comes and helps them out. We have disasters in the United States.

Media’s Role in Perception

They asked for Starlink to come in. So however the media portrays him, it’s good to pay attention to when people actually need help. Who’s there to actually answer that call? And so I think Elon deserves credit for that, for sure. Yeah, I just want to jump in real quick and just say, I think we’re forgetting that Saturday Night Live also made commentary on the vice presidential debate that wasn’t friendly towards Kamala Harris, which is not in line with what they normally do.

Cultural Impact on Politics

So I think that definitely has an effect. If, like, such a left leaning programming goes and makes fun of the left leaning candidate. Like, for me at least, I think that does have a sway to a certain degree. If you believe that Taylor Swift can sway votes, then I think SNL can sway votes. Speaker two? Oh, absolutely. I think anything that anyone can see online has the ability to sway votes.

Recent Event Insights

The fact that, you know, Trump even went down into North Carolina and stuff like that to a visit that was portrayed well, and then SNL making fun of Kamala, there’s. And then the fact that Waltz got so memed and really didn’t stand his own well against Vance all play a part, on top of the fact that betting odds make it favorable to play swings.

Discussion on Current Perceptions

You know, I’m not sure. Maybe I saw something in CNN that actually was portraying Trump has actually falsified information for South Carolina. I didn’t be honest, but this is why also, I think Twitter’s like, I know I’m biased, but probably the best social media account, because when you’re scrolling through Twitter during like a live event, the amount of, like, commentary, like, whether it’s memes, whether it’s posts like this is like live reactions, and this is where people are going to choose to do that.

Engagement and Influence

So again, I think that’s interesting to pay attention to when something happens, where are people spending their time? And it does seem to be, at least politically on Twitter and sports as well. So just something to monitor down the road. Yeah, I definitely think the Pennsylvania rally also played a part in this because, I mean, the man literally started off, as I was saying, and then there, you know, the audience went nuts after being almost assassinated in the same spot.

Emotional Engagement with Events

Pretty much to come back and present, like, triumphantly, like he has a sentiment right now. And, you know, maybe it is just betters right now betting and following that swing. But we’ve seen even in the national presidential poll from 538, it’s narrowed. Harris is at 48.4%, Trump is at 45.9%. But there’s, you know, reports, especially on polygon of like, certain swing states now, like Pennsylvania, that’s leaning more heavily, Trump, 56% odds on Trump, but on polymarkets.

Market Reactions

So is that just swing people trying to make a trade or is that the actual sentiment? You know, he went back, he had this big rally after almost dying people. You know, that resonates with people. It’s a very emotional thing to have witnessed or have been a part of. I think also it’s important to look at the popular vote winner, like, versus the president elect winner.

Comparing Impact

If you look at it, Kamala’s at like 73%. Donald Trump is at like 26. That, that’s just, those are two crazy numbers, in my opinion. I don’t like, it’s just wild to see the difference on most of these. Right. On these two things and trying to compare the numbers and, you know, I don’t know if you’re trying to pick, like, you know, the over other odds on it.

Market Views and Predictions

Yeah, I don’t know. I think it’s really hard to get a guide off of mainstream media. So I think polymarket gives us another opinion that’s not so possibly controlled by legacy media. Speaking about media, I’m really curious to see how this conversation is going to be next week since Harris is doing all her media appearances this week.

Anticipated Discussions

So she’ll be on 60 Minutes. She’ll be on the View with Howard Stern. She’ll be in Arizona. So this week is her week of doing her media reach. So how will that change numbers? We will see because we just know Trump just finished his big trail right now obviously. What, no future new, no futuristic, just talked about going back to PA and getting that push from Elon. Now it’s her turn to do her media rampage, her campaign this week.

Expectations for the Following Week

So excited to see where the numbers look like after this week.

Discussion about Caller Daddy and Female Audience

She was on caller daddy, too, which is kind of insane. I mean if you, I don’t personally listen to that podcast, but I think a lot of girls do, which is cool. It’s good to have real quick, Alan.

Impact of Hurricane on Government Response

We talked about South Carolina and this is a question to you guys listening. Do you think since the hurricane obviously came into play and we didn’t hear much from the government, females getting kind of rocked? Does that, does that hurt Harris in the Biden administration? I mean, I think it definitely, it probably does. I mean, yeah, go ahead. Go ahead.

CNN Fact Check on Hurricane Response

Yeah, so I was looking at this earlier and this is something that popped up on, I don’t know how I, but on CNN they did a fact check and it said six, the fact check and six days of Trump lies about the hurricane Helen response. So it looks like CNN went out of their way and they actually are defending the Harris administration or not that, not just the HARRIS but the Biden administration and kind of what they have done to help the hurricane, you know, victims. So just so you know, like this is like, this was like literally 16 hours ago. Maybe that’s why I was pretty soon.

Comparison of Aid to Hurricane Victims and Other Groups

So, but I’m sure just, and I’m sorry to cut you off there, Alan, but yeah, no, it definitely has heard a lot because like that does not look good for a government or anybody, especially when they’ve been comparing the numbers of like, hey, these hurricane victims are only getting $750, you know, versus, you know, the immigrants and you know, the war, you know, they’re funding wars in the ukrainian and russian war.

Personal Accounts of Hurricane Impact

Just, Ryder, I’m going to hop in on that because like my buddy isn’t, didn’t hit, get hit by Helen. His wife did. She was in Asheville. And then he’s about to get hit by the next one that’s coming to. I think it’s Morris. I can’t remember the name exactly. It’s about to hit Tampa. And I from, I think part of the reason why it plays so well in Trump saver is there, the areas that it’s hit were already kind of predominantly right leaning.

Political Implications of Hurricane Response

They were more likely to be Republican. So when there’s any kind of, it feels like if Trump’s saying there isn’t, there hasn’t been a good response. If there is, wasn’t as strong a response as there should be, then that plays a lot of favor with the Republicans and the people that are already in that area. And, and so that will just take, you know, Florida was going to be Republican anyways. It probably helps the North Carolina and South Carolina votes go a bit more Republican, might help Georgia go a bit more Republican just because they’re kind of in these areas that do get FEMA often and I don’t necessarily, and fear they might not get that support because of that.

Response to Natural Disasters in an Election Year

No future your mics open. So yeah, I’d say, I mean, it’s a natural disaster. You got to respond strong in election year. Even though these are states that might not be voting blue anyway. You still, you know, it’s a United States of America. This is me just going on my little, like a little soapbox over here. You gotta take care of everybody. So I think it definitely does help.

Timing and Urgency in Election Circumstances

Especially we’re less than one month away from an election, so there should be, I feel like the Harris campaign hasn’t been vocal enough and they’re losing points on that where Trump has seized this opportunity and has done stuff in the, if you’re looking at the moves of the current administration, we’ve talked about, like Ryder mentioned the wars abroad and other use cases for some of this money. It’s reasonable for Americans to be upset like, and to want answers.

Upcoming Election Dynamics

So to not get those answers I think will definitely affect the voting and predictions odds in a swift way because, you know, we’re reacting in real time to the information that we’re gaining as a market. So just very interesting to watch. Yeah, it absolutely is. And yeah, I think we’re at a very exciting time in this election and it’s going to give us a lot of content to talk about on this show because, you know, the election’s coming, like, you know, just like winter is coming, like the election is coming and, you know, things, a lot of stuff is going to be worked out.

Impact of Natural Disasters on Political Climate

A lot of stuff’s going to be worked up and we’re really going to just see a lot of very interesting developments. And, I mean, these hurricanes coming through is, you know, it like, what an interesting time for this to happen. And it definitely gives a lot of ammunition to the Republican side of things. And, you know, any type of natural disaster, it feels like nothing ever goes according to plan. And you’re always going to blame the people in power when stuff like that happens.

Incumbents and Challengers in Crisis Situations

And so, yeah, that’s, that definitely hurts the incumbents for sure. But, yeah, I mean, just to summarize, yeah, I mean, the odds are close right now, 51% and 49%. And it’s just kind of reflects the highly competitive nature of this race at this point in time, at least. So if you’re in the US and you have not registered to vote, go register to vote. And more importantly, don’t vote on election day.

Encouragement for Voter Participation

Vote early. Find out where you can vote early. Identify it. I vote early every year. Makes your life so easy. So you’re not waiting in line for 2 hours to vote. You’re waiting in line for maybe 1015 minutes max. So, yeah, let’s. Let’s go ahead and move on and then. Yeah, well, I mean, we’ll obviously talk about this more next week, but I really appreciate all the insights from the panel. Like, this was, this is a great discussion.

HBO Documentary and Bitcoin

As everyone knows, there’s a documentary coming out from HBO that surrounds who they believe. They believe the detectives or analysts at HBO. In this documentary, they believe that they’ve discovered the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of bitcoin and the crypto space. Crypto. Twitter has been speculating on who this might be. And it’s pretty interesting because, you know, I think, like, prior to this, if I had to put all my eggs into a who is Satoshi basket, I probably would have picked Hal Finney.

Betting Market Predictions about Satoshi

But it looks like according to the prediction market, and we’ve got. How much do we have bet on this right now? There’s already 5.3 million bet on this market right now for like, for something like this. Like that’s, it’s pretty substantial. And it looks like we’ve got Lynn Sassmandhe as about 27.5%, overwhelming majority. And then you’ve got, like, Adam back and Nick Zabo and, like, some of the other ones.

Lynn Sassman’s Background

And just a little background on some of these, like, Lyn Sassman with like, the 27%. Like, he was obviously deeply involved in cryptography and he does have connections to, like, Hal Finney and David Chomdez. And Sassman actually died in 2011. Which coincides with Satoshi’s disappearance from public eye around that time. So that kind of fuels speculation that he could be Satoshi. There’s also a big tribute to him in the blockchain.

Speculation on Satoshi’s Identity

Like, a picture of him was essentially encoded in the bitcoin blockchain after his death. I mean, but he also had, like, a lot of tweets in 2010 that were, like, critical of bitcoin. And I don’t know, I looked. I don’t know why everyone. I think, like, there’s probably a leak or something that says that it’s Lynn Sassman, but I couldn’t find anything like that.

Leaked Speculation on Satoshi

There was a leak. There was a leak that was saying, suggesting it was Len Sassman. I have a bet that it’s Lynn Sassman, just based on the leak. And there was a really good medium article that was written. There’s actually 50 this. The market has switched, like, swung quite a bit over the weekend. It was at almost 50% for. For Len, and then now it’s now 50% over 55% for, other slash multiple.

Markets and Speculation Dynamics

Right, right. it feels like the Nvidia fake out where it’s like, oh, there’s a case coming. We have inside information. Oh, sorry. No. Yeah, I don’t think they actually can prove it. Len’s. Len’s wife has openly denied at the time, denied that it was him. Not that. Not that he didn’t contribute, but that it wasn’t him. That was Satoshi.

Timeline Speculations for Satoshi

And there’s been a couple that have been kind of interesting saying, like, timelines for posts by Satoshi that don’t necessarily line up with Len. But I think everyone’s just playing the market. It’ll be interesting to see. I don’t think it’s Hal, but I also think that the documentary hosts also said, our creators also said that it wasn’t multiple, that they were looking at one person.

Implications of Identifying Satoshi

But even then, I don’t really believe this is going to change anything. It’s not really anything bullish that can happen from finding out who Satoshi is. So I’d rather it be a mystery, to be honest with you. We don’t, you know, let’s just keep. Keep it under wraps, probably.

Timing of HBO’s Documentary Release

I think it’s a timing thing. I think HBO is trying to, obviously, get some clout right now since, you know, the crypto campaign and all that stuff is going in. HBO needs some ratings, so perfect timing, and it’s a good topic to talk about. Right. But, like, I don’t know.

Skepticism about Satoshi’s Identity

Will we ever know? No. That’s a, that’s a really good point. Great. About, I mean, I think, I want to say almost immediately, I don’t know, within like a day or two of, like, the whole diddy thing. Like, they had up a show like the fall of Diddy on HBO. So, yeah, for them to cook up something, you know, to have some speculation of who Satoshi is, you know, does.

HBO’s Past Programming Decisions

It doesn’t blow by me. I mean, in fact, I think I’m surprised I didn’t have one earlier. But, you know, Len Sassman, he did. He did. It makes sense for them to actually have, like, this type of leak or a lot of buzz around them because of, you know, the tribute and, you know, he did, you know, if you guys, like, he did have affiliation with David Chum, and David Chom was mentioned in the, you know, the white paper five times.

Connection between David Chaum and Bitcoin

You know, he was a student, you know, of Tom, I believe, you know, working. He was, yeah. And he was working on his PhD, which makes sense. I mean, bitcoin, David, Sean, you know, if you guys don’t know, you know, I think he was the, he created E. Cash, and bitcoin was essentially could have been, quote unquote, inspired by E. Cashe, which is why David Chan was mentioned so many times.

Further Speculation on the True Identity of Satoshi

So, I mean, yeah, I mean, there’s. There’s definitely that point there. I see why they have, you know, him pointed out, but I’m with Alan on this one. I personally think that the CIA probably did it because they pegged off of, you know, the gold back in 1970.

Conspiracies Surrounding Satoshi’s Identity

So, you know, they probably cooked up some strategy and, you know, how funny, you know, to me. You know, I don’t know if you guys realize this, but was talking about Zk tech and, you know, not necessarily. That may not be bitcoin, but this does kind of, like, fall into what bitcoin and this could become.

Speculating on Blockchain and Governmental Relations

Right? Like, you know, they probably started working on these things, you know, back in the seventies to, you know, create something that will fix and, you know, you can overcome, you know, the gold standard and then also, you know, the CIA has published, you know, digital currency things before. So I don’t know, to be very honest.

Potential Collaborations on Digital Currency

They probably were working together. Hal Finney and Lynn Sassman worked together at PNP Solutions, which was also associated with David Chaum. Like, there’s really strong connections between Len and Hal Finney, which make it more likely that it was the two of them to some level of collaboration, although maybe one of them was Satoshi and one of them wasn’t.

Secrecy and Collaboration in Satoshi’s Identity

But it allowed them to keep their own identity while not having and critique their own creations if they wanted to. So I definitely agree they’re cut chasing clout, but Len and Hal probably make the most sense in terms of what they were doing and their connections with David Chaum and each other. But it won’t change much, I think.

Final Thoughts on Satoshi Nakamoto’s Identity

Really, they’re both dead. They both. So neither of them is not dead. He is cryogenically frozen in Arizona. Okay. Yes, he’s cryo. Wait, is that true? Is that true? Yes, it’s in Scottsdale.

Merging Financial and Cultural Discussions

I totally forgot about that writer. That’s a good point. But they both died, and they both kind of emphasized the importance of death to the blockchain and how it was kind of like a good thing about the blockchain of people dying and losing their keys. So to me, the fact that Len took his life and then Hal was cryogenically frozen and knew that he had a death timeline for quite a few years before he actually died, both suggest that.

Personal Opinions on Satoshi’s Involvement

I think they’re both at least somehow involved, even if one of them in particular was Satoshi. Yeah, I mean, that’s a great way to get an instant GTA five stars is to suddenly start playing with the wallet of Satoshi. Because countries around the world would be like, yeah, you’re not going to be the richest individual in the history of mankind, pal.

Consequences of Satoshi’s True Identity

You’re going to be on all the wanted lists. That’d be actually insane. Like, you’d be the most surveilled person in the history of mankind if they realized you were Satoshi and had access to, whatever. A million bitcoin. 2 million bitcoin aren’t even. I think it was a million.

Unimaginable Wealth

Yeah, that’s absolute banana land. You have more bitcoin than, like, all the countries combined. That’s, this is amazing. Oh, yeah, go ahead. I also think it’s interesting, too. Yeah, I think it’s so funny, too, because, like, it’s.

HBO’s Take on Market Speculation

I think it could just be some dude at HBO came across a Reddit thread and said, I’m going to make a movie about this because it’s like, it’s interesting that it’s taking such prominence where it’s like, okay, why does HBO talking about this elevate over people who have been in the industry and it’s been discussed for years and years? I don’t think HBO, like everyone was saying. It’s more just salacious. I think my biggest enjoyment out of this market is actually just reading the comments and, like, people, how unhinged they are and just saying like, it’s probably Elon Musk and like, stupid stuff like that. Like just off the wall comments people are making is really enjoyable. I do think that’s a fun part of polymarket is just hearing what people say and then it’s basically just a degenerate. Like, I don’t know, reminds me of old school yahoo answers. with what people are commenting on, I think that’s also worth a read if people want to have a good laugh.

Discussion on Media Articles

Timmy, you’re, as much as I think you’re right about it being Reddit for that thread, it could be. It’s actually a medium article. There’s a 2021 medium article that says it’s Len Sassman that gained some pretty major prominence. So you can, when they say it’s Len, you can go find the medium article and that you found the source of the documentary right there. Can you pin that? Yeah, let me find it and I’ll pin it. Thank you. Yeah, that’s amazing. Yeah. And like, just as we’ve been, like, when I looked this morning, I believe that Lynn Sasman was like at 33%. And from this morning to like, right now it’s down to 22%. And looks like Adam back is gaining a lot of ground. And then also the other slash multiple category is gaining a lot of ground too. But, yeah, like, this is a fun one. And this might be one of the ones where we debrief on it, next week also as a resolved market. But yeah, I mean, this is, this is generating some pretty intense speculation about the identity of Mister Satoshi or Mister Nakamoto, I should say.

The Anticipation of the Documentary

The documentary is set to air tomorrow on October 8, and so that’ll be pretty exciting to see. You know, Will, Lyn Sassman is like the top contender currently. Is that who they say? And just because HBO, this documentary says this is who they think it is, doesn’t mean that’s who it is, necessarily. I think you need to have some, like, pretty compelling evidence to truly, do it because people have been trying to figure this out since the creation of bitcoin. Right. And there’s a lot of motivation, and a lot of incentive to figure out who it actually is. Well, and I tweeted something out, like, oh, yeah, oh, I tweeted something out, like, last week and I was like, you know, like if, like, in my opinion, Laura Shin is probably the best crypto reporter that we have in our space. Like, she uncovered who the Dow hacker was, not a couple of years ago. And so I just kind of tweeted out like, hey, you know, if Laura Shin isn’t behind this, then I don’t, you know, I think it’s b’s kind of joking.

Insights on the NFL Season and Teams

Yeah, Ryder, I think you had one more thing to say and then we’ll move on to the next topic. Yeah, I think also what was not mentioned is that, you know, there has been lawsuits, you know, with Craig Wright and saying that he was Satoshi at one point. So who’s another person? That I think, I think everyone knows that. That guy, it’s full of shit, pardon my French, on this podcast. Sorry. On this, you know. Yeah, well, I mean, I think it, but also, like those court cases, there was a lot of new evidence that was uncovered and, like, new recently unseen, like emails from Satoshi Nakamoto that they just, that, you know, provided a lot more. So maybe like Craig Wright getting sued or suing people through the discovery of those court cases actually provided enough information for HBO to determine who they believe actually is Satoshi. So I think that’s something that could be an interesting take as well. I wonder if in the HBO documentary, they talk about Craig Wright’s lawsuits and how that was actually a huge benefit for the case of determining who it is, even though everyone knew that it was not him. I’m excited to watch this.

Current NFL Season Overview

Okay, moving on. All right. We are done with week five, right, of the NFL. So it’s, let’s just kind of take a quick look. Let’s talk about some NFL teams. Let’s see who’s going to win the Super bowl. Currently, the Chiefs are the leaders of the pack. They’re, they have a four and one record. They are not undefeated, but everyone is. You know, it seems like the prediction markets have the Kansas City Chiefs at a 14% chance. They play tonight also. So that’s also exciting, right? Monday Night Football, the Chiefs, I forget about. I forget who they play. But, you know, as of week five of the NFL season, you know, the Chiefs remain the favorites to win the Super bowl. The 49 ers, despite recent losses, are our second at odds. Is that who it is? I believe it’s the Ravens, actually, that Ravens are second with a three and two record.

Fan Perspectives on Recent Games

The Niners are close behind. I don’t know. I’m a Cowboys fan. the Cowboys had a Sunday Night football last night. There was a huge rain delay. The game didn’t start until like 09:00 my time, 10:00 eastern time. I stayed up past midnight to watch the game. Thank God we won because I would have been upset if I had stayed up that late for a loss. But yeah, just what, you know, any takes over here on how you think the NFL season is going to, who’s going to win? What are we discovering? I’ll just open it up here. So quarterbacks is here the most wins by rookie quarterbacks that we’ve seen since like 19 or 18, I don’t know, 1970s or something like that. We’re seeing the era of quarterbacks change, but we’re also seeing the old quarterbacks are not as good as we thought they are.

Commanders’ Potential and Performance

One, one prediction is the commanders, and this is just me. Yes, I’m a commanders fan. I think JD five is really changing the Washington culture. I think they have a good opportunity. If you’ve been a commanders fan or NFC east fan, you know, it always, it’s a tough division. Very, very tough division. And usually the commanders or the Redskins, whatever you call it, they don’t make that late push until the end of the year. It’s the first time we’ve seen them actually have a strong offense and putting up points. Right. So we’ll see more of that. I’m just super bullish on JD five and see where that comes into play. But some of the big teams that we thought we’re going to take off are not like the 49 ers. Right.

Shifts in Overall Team Performance

They’ve got some injuries that are going on. The Chiefs are obviously being supported by the refs every single weekend if you watch the NFL, but it’s a fun year to watch some of these young rookie quarterbacks with like Bo Nicks or Williams that are stepping into play. So that’s just my take around how the league is changing and getting some new blood. Some of these new quarterbacks and I, in Texas, I actually watched the whole game, too last night. The Cowboys were one play away from losing or, you know, so it was a tough game last night for them to play against the sealers. Yeah, it was a pretty disgusting game, if you ask me. I mean, but we don’t have to get into the details about how bad the Cowboys are every single year if we don’t have, if we don’t want to. Cowboys might win a Super bowl in your lifetime, bro.

Patriots and Overall League Dynamics

It’s tough to tell. I know it’s been like, 47 years since the last one. But I’m just kidding. It’s only been 30 years. But, yeah, creative. I like Washington as well. I’ve been very surprised and how they’ve been doing. My fantasy team is absolutely atrocious. So I’m extremely salty after five weeks into the season, how that’s going. But, yeah, I agree. Like, the teams that you would think would be good, I mean, miami’s buns. Miami is atrocious, and, like, they have, like, one of the best offenses in the league on paper in terms of wide receivers and running backs and all that fun stuff. So it really does kind of seem like anybody’s game. If the Chiefs win again, bro, like, the league needs to look at itself in the mirror and be like, what are we doing?

Referee Influence and Fan Reactions

Like, the pass interference against, I think it was the Falcons. It was pits in the end zone, and, like, bro, got trucked, and the rest were just like, nah, no flag. I was like, all right, this is insane. But I was a Patriots fan. Well, I am a Patriots fan, so I can really talk because we still get that reaction years after Brady retired and left. So it is what it is. Look, as an Aussie with no real understanding of the game, I was very happy to see on local news tonight that we had our first, Aussie born, field goal kicker in the NFL, apparently. Wait, who is. I saw that team. Is this which. Who’s he? I don’t know what team he plays for.

International Perspectives on the NFL

Geez, that’s asking a lot of questions. I love, I love getting the non us people on the NFL talk as well. One of my favorite things, just know. That the listeners at home, the Patriots, are evil. They are like a worst version of the 1990s Chicago Bulls. I’m a Jets fan, so it’s not only bad that my team lost, but I’m also picking them for the Super bowl. This is was a game I didn’t bet on, but I’m betting on them for the Super bowl. They dropped, like, 50% based on yesterday, and I guess the game before. So, yeah, the Patriots. I’m happy to see that Tom Brady is not a great announcer yet. He’s going to have to get better.

Brady’s Transition to Broadcasting

And that, for some reason, brings me joy, because he wins at everything else, but he’s not so great at this right now, so I’m cool for that. I’m. I’m just saying football isn’t a real sport. Rugby is. Guth, back me up on this. Oh, look, I don’t know. You’ll have to get yourself to Vegas next year for the opening round of the NRL and let me know what you think. I will let you know. My brother was, did the rising Stars for the most recent north american league for the draft. And so it’s, I’m excited. The MLR, I think the jets haven’t. Won a Super bowl since 1969, which was, I think, the year we landed on the moon.

Jets’ Historical Challenges and Market Speculation

I could be incorrect there, but that’s okay. We did. We. So maybe the jets winning the Super bowl that year was also staged. That would make sense, man, because I don’t know how else they would be able to lift the trophy. To be honest with conversation other day. I will say one thing that I find very interesting about this is when the, this market opened up, the Chiefs were 15% favorites and like, they were 14 and a half to 15% the whole time and they’ve remained undefeated. And like, if you were buying the Chiefs just to flip it for a profit, you’re probably going like, what more do they need to do? Because they’re winning all of their games and they haven’t really increased their odds to win the Super bowl in the better’s eyes, which I think is fascinating because it’s almost like people just, if people were betting on them, they’re like, oh, yeah, the Chiefs are good.

Chiefs’ Consistent Performance and Public Perception

No, no shock there. I will say I was dead wrong because I thought the Chiefs would struggle coming out of the gate like mine and Allen’s beloved Patriots did for so many years when they were winning all their championships. But I just think it’s interesting that, like, the team with the best odds has continued to prove week after week that they win football games and the betters haven’t reflected that at all. Yeah. And I think one more thing I’m going to talk about, too, on this is like, if you look at, right, something I like to pay attention to in the NFL is like, the differential on points and when it comes down to it, like, the Minnesota Vikings at five and zero have a 63 point differential.

Point Differential Insights

The Chiefs are down, are only plus 20. You know, when they do win, they score, you know, total in aggregate. They’ve scored 20 more points in their opponents, which is pretty tight for four wins. And then, like, the Vikings are just like running away with it now. The Chiefs are still, you know, they need to play one more game. The Minnesota Vikings have one more game than them already on the score or on the schedule, which, you know, Chiefs play tonight. But I, that’s something I pay attention to and kind of see how like how does, how is that reflected in the betting market? And it isnt a whole lot I think, which is something that I think is kind of interesting.

Commentary on Market Behavior

But yeah, and one more thing I just kind of thought was funny. I was looking through the comments on this market. First of all, 80 million in volume on this market so far. And I was looking down at the comments and people are just giving one word comments here. But, and so, you know, someone says chiefs, then you see giants, then you see cardinals, then you see Browns, then you see Broncos, then you see titans. And then underneath that someone just goes, fed interest rates. So I think they might betting in the wrong market. That just kind of made me giggle a little bit. Here’s a hot take. Sam Darnold.

Sam Darnold and Unexpected Triumphs

What Sam McDonald has done in Minnesota undefeated, I don’t think anybody or any market would even think about what that guy is doing. Coming back to beating, I think they beat the jets, sorry, new futuristic, his old team over the weekend and him going undefeated.

Minnesota’s Performance and Surprising Developments

When I heard, obviously, Kirk was leaving, going to Atlanta, I had zero from my perspective, zero that they would actually run. I know they still have some of their wide receivers, but their defense is nasty, their offense is clicking and they’re finding out a way to win. So I think, minute, Minnesota is definitely someone that, or a team that you probably didn’t have on anybody’s, anybody’s radar coming into this season. Yeah, Minnesota, this is one of those teams where if you were to just speculate on some of the very, you know, teams at the bottom of the list, like you could have bought the Vikings at, currently they’re at 6.7 cents. So that’s like that’s a nice little six x. And if they continue this trend of winning and winning very handedly.

Discussion on TikTok’s Ban and Legal Challenges

Okay, well, I think we can move on. We can move on from this, but yeah, I think that’s a really good point, Mister Owl. Do you go, do you prefer creative or do you prefer Mister Owl? We’ll find out. You can call me creative. We can call me Alice. Whatever, whatever’s comfortable for you that works. That works. All right, so we’ve only got about ten or eleven more minutes to tackle this last topic, but maybe we can bring it up again, next week. So it’s, this is you know, will tick tock be banned in the US before May 2025. So, you know, the issue of whether tick tock will be banned in the US is rooted in, like, a pretty complex intersection of national security concerns, legal battles, political dynamics, public opinion, blah, blah.

Legal Challenges Surrounding TikTok

So on the legal challenges. Okay, so far, there’s a. There’s a 23% chance that TikTok will be banned in the US before May 2025. Congress has passed legislation that empowers the federal government to force TikTok to either sell its us operations or face a potential ban, which is interesting. There’s national security concerns with the US. Intelligence agencies and lawmakers have argued that the chinese government could potentially access user data. but I. This really. There’s a first amendment argument here, and Tick Tock has vigorously challenged the law, citing first amendment protections. there have been court proceedings. those were in September. Also, my. My little brother works at Tick Tock, so I get some info from him to nothing like, you know, private or anything, but he works at Tick Tock in Austin.

Public Opinion and the TikTok Debate

I think on the public opinion side, some Americans continue to worry about TikTok, but I think the majority either don’t want it banned or don’t care. Oh, yeah. There was a Pew study that said, of TikTok users, at least 61% oppose the band and only 10% support it. So I guess, like, the other 29% just like, don’t care, or 19%. So I don’t know. Would like to get y’all’s thoughts here. There’s political factors involved, technical business challenges. 23% chance, in my opinion, seems high. I feel like this is a free speech thing. Maybe nothing, because who knows how involved China is with Bytedance, which is the parent company of TikTok. If you have any thoughts or opinions on this. Would love to hear them.

Concerns Surrounding TikTok and Government Regulation

I mean, bro, I’d say that China is pretty heavily involved with byte. Any company in China is basically hanging out with the CCP, to my understanding. I’m not a geopolitical expert by any means, but still. And I think the other complicated thing is, they’re not an american company, so do they still get the protections that an American would? I don’t know. But the dangerous thing is a precedent. If the government suddenly starts being able to call the shots on how social media can regulate posts and information. Look at meta. Meta is a pretty regulated platform on what you can and cannot say, especially compared to Twitter. So, yeah, I think I. It’s a tricky one. I would probably rather them not mess with social media platforms, considering that just doesn’t seem like good precedent to be set.

Competition and Incentives in the Social Media Landscape

I’m going to say they are Brazil. Nice. Oh, yeah, Brazil. Good point, guth. But I was going to say they already mess with social media platforms. And to be 100% honest, I think that no matter what happens, there’s actually maybe an incentive for whichever government, to ban tick tock. if you’re the Republicans and you’re Trump and you’re aligned with Elon Musk, he wants. He wants everyone using Twitter. He wants everyone using axe. And so, you know, if national security saying we need to ban TikTok because it’s leaking info to the CCP, Trump’s got no problem getting behind it.

Political Perspectives on TikTok’s Future

And if you look at the Dems, you’ve got national security. Great argument. And then, you know, you’ve got Zuckerberg or someone else. So another social media company, meta, like, out there saying, hey, like, yeah, we don’t want tick tock because we want people using Instagram reels or whatever, Google saying we want them using YouTube shorts. There’s essentially incentive from any of the competition that’s based in the US, whether they’re Dem or Republican, to encourage ban. So I think 23% is probably right on the money. It’s just whether or not they can make enough of a national security argument and win in any court cases to make it happen, because all the american companies have an incentive to try and push it to be banned.

Legal Framework and Legislative Actions

So President Joe Biden, I’m looking online, signed a bill to ban it back in April. Right. So this has been an ongoing thing for, for a while. What they’re trying to do to, like, push this. Now, what they’re saying, quote unquote, tick tock, poses a serious risk to data. So privacy and then melt mental health for young people, that’s like all our social media platforms. Right? And I think the real problem is that it’s owned by a chinese company, I think that’s the real issue that they’re going to try to fight right now.

User Experiences and Personal Opinions

I think the issue for me is that I put one video up about Polygon on TikTok. Literally one video. No, futuristic, you go and follow me because no one follows me and no one cared. And I was like, I can keep putting videos up, but no one cared on this first. Once I gave up. So my me, it’s a self esteem issue more than a politics issue. So I went ahead and. Because this has been, like, going on for quite a bit of time. Yeah, I think they had, like, a temporary ban on it or it did something. I mean, I don’t use TikTok personally, I use Instagram.

ChatGPT Insights on TikTok’s Future

But, yeah, I just went ahead and I pulled out, you know, chat GPT because I don’t have a Zoltar app, and asked Chad DBT what they think or if they were going to make a prediction. Obviously, I had to ask it multiple times. But Chad DBT says TikTok is unlikely to be fully banned by May 2025. You know, in major markets like the US or Europe, however, it may face increased regulations and stricter data governance requirements or forced to structural changes such as data localization or a change in ownership for its operations and certain regions.

International Perspectives on TikTok Usage

So over here in Australia, it’s, if you’ve got a government issued device, you’re not allowed to have tick tock on that. That was passed back in April. We’re still seeing a further shift with the australian government, you know, targeting social media platforms, metax, a few others with a couple of different lawsuits and things. So I find it very interesting that I can’t go on the Internet and check hardware supply prices in America because it’s geo blocked. I don’t know if that’s competition thing or. So the Internet, you know, depending on which part of the world you live in, is very different.

Corporate Policies and Privacy Concerns

Yeah. There’s a lot of companies that have that policy in place that you cannot download tick tock on your work phone. So it’s a, it’s def. There’s a government. It’s, it’s a privacy thing as well, too. And I’m sure other businesses also have that in place where you cannot download tick tock on your work phone. Yeah. And, and just to, I think it’s helpful just to provide clarity here on, like, what, but what. How this market is resolved.

Resolution of the TikTok Situation

Right. And so, you know, for this market to be resolved to. Yes. You know, will TikTok be banned? A mandated. A ban mandated by us federal law policy or the court system must have gone into effect within that above timeframe, may 2025. So if that means if TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it becomes into compliance with us laws and regulations, this will resolve to know. So even if there’s, like. Because that’s like one of the solutions, too, that I’ve seen out there, it’s like, okay, we either ban, you know, us either bans it completely or there’s kind of like a forced selling to a different entity.

Future Scenarios for TikTok

Right. They carve out the US syndicate, the entity, and sell to somebody else. So if that happens, then that’s not considered a ban necessarily, and that resolves to know. But so I think that would be the most likely outcome. Well, I’m not here to speculate on what the outcome might be, but I think it’s very. How many times does the US ban foreign products? And this is, that’s what this is. This is a product that is created by a foreign country and is exported to the US.

Uniqueness of TikTok as a Product

I guess it happens, but it’s just, this is different because it’s a very popular item. Yeah, this is a completely different type of product. I mean, it’s not like a general, like, you know, household product. I mean, this is social media, this is data, this is information. I mean, this is. You can argue that. I mean, I guess I don’t want to go down this rabbit hole, but yeah, there’s a lot of, like, there’s a lot of mass media, you know, influence that can happen through TikTok.

Freedom of Speech and TikTok

So this is. Yeah, this is definitely completely different. And if you were like, arguing freedom of speech, I mean. Oh, man, that’s so. It is a tough one. It is a tough one, but I agree. Yeah. Maybe getting sold, like, just like chat, GPT said, moving, getting sold to another company, you know, maybe them having to sell it to the CIA is gonna have to have it work.

Concluding Thoughts on the Discussion

Right? Everything is technically owned by the CIA. Just snappy. It’s. Everything’s the ciataine. Yeah. And Satoshi’s. Satoshi’s the CIA too, right? It is. No, he is. No, that’s, that’s a viable theory that I think a lot of people talk about. Yeah, I was just kind of joking a little bit. Yeah, yeah, I think. I think we do. Yeah. Unfortunately, like, we are up on time, and so I’ve got it. But guys, this was great conversation.

Wrap Up of the Show

I think this was amazing. I think we’ll. At the beginning of each episode going forward, we’ll do like a quick recap of what we talked about last week in case we need to type any loose ends. And then, but, yeah, this, you know, on the tick tock side, like, yeah. 23% chance TikTok’s banned before May 2025. Numerous legal, political, technical obstacles involved. we’ll see what happens. The future of tick tock in the US, it just, it remains uncertainty.

Future Episodes and Announcements

Okay. And just go ahead. Just a reminder, we’re not in office next Monday. So pancakes and predictions will be on Tuesday at 09:30 a.m. eST. Just want to let you guys know about that. That’s right. Question, do you guys have like a flyer for us so we can share it with our community? And then two can you pre populate the space so then we can share it out within our community? Yeah, absolutely.

Closing Remarks

I’ll get a telegram group together with all the panelists from today and then we’ll, yeah, this has been a ongoing initiative and it’s becoming more and more popular and so, yeah, we’re going to start building this out quite a little bit more, so. But thanks for asking, mister owl. So, yeah, everyone, thanks for listening to pancakes and predictions.